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11 Feb 2025
Fortum FY24 conference call key points & views

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Fortum FY24 conference call key points & views
Overall view on the call: Suggestion from the CEO was that this really was a ''special'' dividend- i.e. there should not be an expectation that we get an annual cash sweep and further blockbuster DPS in future years. Other than that, nothing hugely new on the key fundamentals in our view other than emphasising that Nordic power prices are currently depressed due to unfavourable warm/wet/windy weather and that this is disrupting the forward curve further out to the end of the decade. The stock will have a big ex-dividend in ~April, so expect debate from here to be on where multiples / yield settles after that.
Key points from the call:
. Special dividend. Decision to pay a special dividend was because balance sheet has got even stronger than last year, was taken in light of current investment pipeline and liquidity surplus amidst declining deposit rates. CEO said we should expect a reversion to the normal 60-90% payout policy going forward. The suggestion seems to be that this is genuinely a one-off and no hint that they would do another special next year. Also, interesting that lower deposit rates was part of the decision - short rates (Euribor) have come down a lot recently.
. Special dividend payment. Will be paid in one go, worth EUR1.256bn in Q2. Going forward will look to split it into two payments.
. Share buyback. CEO stated co prefers cash dividends and does not intend to do buybacks.
. Balance sheet and leverage. Aim is to maintain BBB flat rating, max headroom remains 2-2.5x EBITDA, want to maintain a certain level of flexibility and note that forward power prices are lower so leverage will come up over time, hence only going to 1x with today''s special dividend.
. Nordic power market conditions. Decline in the long forward curve (2030 Nordpool price now at EUR41/MWh vs. EUR48/MWh in the autumn) is just a function of unfavourable weather in 2024/recently, which has knocked-on down the forward curve. Inconclusive comments on whether this has...