BNPP Exane View: Mixed bag - earnings are a 7% miss for the FY on the back of weak 4Q operating performance in generation and customer solutions, and nuclear waste provision updates booked through the associate line. However, co has announced a EUR0.50 special dividend (on top of a slightly weak underlying EUR0.90 DPS) - special divi had been a key bull case on the stock recently. FY net debt is also a little better than cons. although worse than our est. Performance today likely to come down to the value placed upon the special dividend - we would argue it doesn''t necessarily signal anything new, given the under-levered balance sheet was already well-known.
Fortum has released its FY24 results. The key highlights are:
. Comparable operating profit slight miss, EUR1,178m vs. Vara consensus EUR1,201m (-2%)
. Comparable EPS miss, EUR1.00 vs. Vara consensus EUR1.08 (-7%)
. Underlying DPS EUR0.90 vs. Vara consensus EUR1.03 (-13%), but co has announced a EUR0.50 special dividend top-up taking total DPS to EUR1.40, and unclear to what extent the expectation of a special had impacted consensus
. Dec''24 net debt EUR0.37bn vs. Bbg consensus EUR0.47bn
Divisional highlights are:
. Generation comparable operating profit slight miss, EUR1,218m vs. Vara consensus EUR1,244m (-2%) - co citing lower Nordic spot prices due to higher reservoir levels, increased renewable power output and warm weather
. Consumer solutions comparable operating profit miss, EUR76m vs. Vara consensus EUR81m (-6%)
. Other comparable operating profit -EUR116m vs. Vara consensus -EUR129m
Hedging/optimisation:
. 2025 hedging: now 75% hedged at EUR42.0/MWh (vs. previously 65% at EUR42.0/MWh), implying EUR42/MWh on incrementally hedged volumes
. 2026 hedging: now 45% hedged at EUR41.0/MWh (vs. previously 40% at EUR41.0/MWh), implying EUR41/MWh on incrementally hedged volumes
. Optimisation premium reached 8.7 EUR/MWh in 2024, slightly exceeding annual target of 6-8 EUR/MWh
Conference call 9am UKT. Webcast: https://fortum.videosync....
