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12 Feb 2025
Fortum FY24 sellside debrief feedback

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Fortum FY24 sellside debrief feedback
Fortum held a virtual debrief for sellside analysts on Wednesday post Tuesday''s results. Joy Xu from our team joined the call, and key takes are below. As usual the session focused on points of detail and nothing here strikes as material, although clearly data centre PPAs remain an upside risk - one that we are comfortable with for now, as we don''t think any single PPA can be material enough in price premium+volume terms to meaningfully move the dial for Fortum''s equity story, especially in light of the recent decline in long term Nordpool forwards.
Key points from the debrief QandA:
. Long-term hedging. Not intending to disclose pricing on the 20% rolling 10y outright generation volume hedge (targeting to reach that level by end of 2026). Co said that a longer tenor should normally imply higher prices especially as demand is expected to rise in the outer years.
. Power demand outlook. Mgmt thinks that the outlook by the TSOs (Feb''25 investor presentation, p.8) looks to be slightly optimistic as hydrogen projects are not really progressing, next update may be in spring this year. Thinks that the estimates on data centres could be a bit outdated and could be higher. On other industrial consumption would be more of a timing topic.
. Data centres and PPAs. Have several PPA discussions ongoing and the pipeline is ''very robust'', co. has confidence in the projects but will need time to materialise.
. Optimisation premium. Achieved 8.7EUR/MWh last year, not disclosing quarterly numbers but they had said last year that Q1 was very high (EUR10). Main driver of the premium is volatility, especially Finland. Decreasing GoO prices would not change their forecast.
. Cost saving programme. Programme itself is progressing well (EUR 60m of gross cost savings in 2024) and have plans to continue to reduce annual fixed costs by EUR 100m by end of this year, expect to see full effect of the programme from 2026 onwards. Structural changes last year (e.g. divestments in...