Q3 results were strong, cost cutting plan will be accretive, and lower capex will further swell Fortum''s spare balance sheet capacity, likely implying a higher dividend payout for FY23. One the other hand the cost savings were arguably priced on the spot by last week''s +8% move, and on refreshing our model we think consensus impact is likely to be offset by recent declines in Nordic power prices. Positive DPS revisions are now an upside risk, but history suggests the stock is more heavily driven by earnings, and we stay U/P for now, albeit with limited downside to our TP. ''23 DPS could approach a c10% yield for this year ... but Alongside its results Fortum announced a EUR100m 2023-26 cost saving programme and a EUR0.5bn 2023-25 reduction in capex, which will result in even further deleveraging of the balance sheet. On the cc management hinted at a revisit of shareholder returns early next year, and we now see a high chance Fortum will pay at the top end of its 60-90% DPS/EPS payout ratio guidance. Whilst this could put the shares on a double-dig divi yield for FY23 (falling to 7-8% in FY24+), evidence from earlier this year suggests the shares tend to be more driven by earnings than dividends. Cost cutting plan - logical and accretive but priced on the day We think Fortum''s savings programme makes industrial sense given the now-smaller size of the group and in isolation we expect it will be mid-to-high single digit earnings accretive. However on Fortum''s current 10x consensus P/E, the plan is worth c90c/share, equivalent to 8% of pre-results share price, which was arguably priced by an equivalent move last week. Furthermore we expect cost saving upgrades will likely be somewhat offset by the ~20% decline in Nordic power prices since Q2 results. Despite including the savings in our new ests. as well as optimisation premiums which were already in line with Fortum''s new higher guidance, we cut our FY23/24 EPS by 7% on average. Trimming EPS and TP...