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12 May 2023
Good quarter, but fundamentals unchanged

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Good quarter, but fundamentals unchanged
Some irony in 1Q results in our view as on the one hand co beat significantly on higher achieved 1Q23 power prices, but on the other hand made limited progress capturing higher power prices for 2024, with no increase in ''24 hedge ratio. Overall our fundamental view remains unchanged: we think Fortum is already well-owned by specialists, and we see earnings vol as a potential barrier to wider generalist inflows. In absence of a major catalyst (timing on eg. Uniper assets acquisition is unclear), we think the shares could drift despite optically low multiples on current power prices.
This was a good quarter. But does it change fundamentals?
Positive share price reaction to yesterday''s beat is understandable in our view given weak recent performance and with the EUR0.2bn EBITDA beat in isolation worth c2% of market cap. But there was nothing to change the fundamental forward outlook for the shares in our view - the stock remains cheap on multiples, but this is contingent on volatile power prices which we think could constrain generalist appetite for the shares. We think a major catalyst would be needed for the co to re-rate - and this may come in due course with deployment of Fortum''s very underlevered balance sheet - but timing on potential acquisitions, such as Uniper''s Nordic assets, is highly uncertain.
Russia now deconsolidated; seizure makes sale ''complicated''
Fortum stated on the call that it retains legal title to its Russian assets and therefore in theory could still sell them, but the company sees the seizure of management control by the government as ''complicating'' a sale. Co now intends to pursue its legal rights both in Russia and under international investment treaties. We don''t think this will come as a surprise to most investors, with Russia valued at zero in most SoTPs (and cut to EUR0.5bn from EUR1bn in our SoTP today). Other key topics on the call were hedging (slightly inconclusive explanation on limited 2024 progress in our...