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08 Feb 2023
Russia writedowns: A reminder of what we already knew

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Russia writedowns: A reminder of what we already knew
Fortum disclosed overnight that it will book an additional EUR1bn of pre-tax impairments on its Russia segment in its fourth quarter 2022 results. Drivers appear to be a risk-adjusted revaluation to reflect ''prevailing market restrictions'', along with moves in the ruble. This comes on top of earlier writedowns at 1Q22, with total Russian impairments for FY22 now amounting to EUR1.7bn.
We don''t see the announcement as especially meaningful since client feedback suggests most investors already value Fortum''s Russian assets at close to zero. Fortum states that the post-write down net asset value of Russian assets is 1.7bn - if anything, quite positive relative to street valuation (circa zero) and our own (valued at EUR1bn in our SoTP).
On the other hand, comments that the process of selling Russian assets ''is likely to take further time and there still are significant uncertainties'' are more impactful, especially given recent headlines on other companies eg. in the Chemicals sector successfully exiting Russian investments and the notable shift in language vs. the 9m call where Fortum stated they had '' healthy interest'' and were in the ''latter part'' of the divestment process. This will likely dampen hopes that an exit of Russia could be a catalyst in the near term. Nonetheless, we don''t think this was a pivotal part of the investment case for most investors, and we think overall last night''s release justifies only a muted share price reaction if any. No change to our estimates or TP.