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Selling, not growing
A weak Q4
Fortum''s operating performance in Q4 ''20 missed our and consensus expectations by 20% at the Comparable Operating Profit, excluding Uniper which had already reported FY results but whose accounts are translated differently in Fortum. The weakness was driven by the Solutions business, impacted by low spot prices, weaker heating demand but also poor performance in waste, and by the Generation business despite achieved prices in-line with expectations.
Balance sheet progress
Fortum announced the sale of the Baltics heating business for ca. 15x trailing EV/EBITDA and EUR800m in proceeds. The business has been under strategic review for a little over a year, alongside the Polish heating business, which we value at EUR750m and which remains under review. Our model assumes both disposals as well as the equity stake in Stockholm Exergi for EUR2bn, although it appears that co-shareholder City of Stockholm is not interested in acquiring the stake and would have a keen interest in any buyer. We value the Consumer Solutions, which is also under strategic review, at EUR1.1bn but do not reflect a disposal yet in our numbers. If Fortum executes on all these disposals at our valuations, the balance sheet would be sustainable.
But no growth
To fund the dividend and the Uniper acquisition, Fortum is in effect dismantling its own assets. Ultimately, this suggests it will be left with a conventional generation business in Germany, Nordics, UK and Russia, a small renewables business mostly via equity stakes and a small heating business (~EUR100m Comparable Operating Profit). Although renewables is a growing market, Fortum''s pipeline lags significantly vs peers.
Re-iterate Underperform
Our 2021 EPS remains below consensus and we continue to see the shares as overvalued given the lack of growth (2020 is peak EPS on our numbers) and the short duration of the Russian cash flows. We maintain our price target at EUR18.5 per share.