We think Fortum''s special dividend really is ''special'' and is unlikely to be repeated next year, so its main effect will be to make multiples look better when the stock goes ex-div in April. But on our new marked-to-market numbers, that effect is short-lived as lower Nordic forward prices progressively erode EPS/DPS by FY27. We cut our TP by 7% on lower medium-term achieved prices. Special means special Our interpretation of the CEO''s comments on the call was that we shouldn''t expect Tuesday''s EUR0.50 special dividend announcement to turn into a series of special payouts in future years: the co guided to DPS returning to the headline 60-90% payout policy, and on our updated ests the balance sheet will not be as over-capitalised in Dec''25 as it was in Dec''24. The co also explicitly ruled out share buybacks. Therefore, we don''t see enhanced shareholder returns as a likely catalyst from here. Nordic power prices likely to erode mid-term consensus Fortum has suffered a material decline in mid-to-long term Nordic forward prices. For instance we estimate that including area premiums, 2028 indicated Nordic forward prices have fallen from cEUR45/MWh in mid-2024 to cEUR38/MWh today. That is significant for EPS. The company cited recent weather as the culprit, but we note longer-term forwards have fallen by more than nearer-term ones. This could place negative pressure on consensus earnings / terminal price assumptions, and might lower the price-base for long-term PPA negotiations e.g. with data centre offtakers. Cutting numbers and PT We cut our FY27 EPS by 12% on lower forward prices which drives a 7% cut in our TP from EUR12.5 to EUR11.6. When the stock goes ex-div EUR1.40 in April it should briefly put the shares on an attractive-looking c7% yield but we expect this to dilute to c5.5% by FY27 due to falling achieved power prices, which would be in line with the co''s long-term average yield.