The interconnection-driven convergence goes on 2021 will see the commercial operation of 2 1.4GW interconnections between Norway and UK and Norway and Germany. This has raised expectations that the (very) long-awaited convergence of Nordic power prices towards the higher German levels will finally occur this year. We analyse in this note why we remain sceptical of that prospect. Balance sheet still tight We estimate that Fortum has ca. EUR4bn worth of assets under strategic review and likely to be disposed of (~EUR2bn Stockholm Exergi, ~EUR1bn CHP assets, ~EUR1bn Consumer Solutions) which could push the average FFO / Debt over 2021-23 to 37% on our forecasts. This would allow Fortum to maintain its BBB rating (35% needed by SandP) but would in our view leave no room for Fortum to deliver the capex plan it outlined at its CMD or any flexibility if power prices turned lower. Importantly it would limit any scope for further dividend increases. No headroom for Uniper buyout The balance sheet tightness means that Fortum does not have the means for a buyout of the Uniper minorities it doesn''t own, which at market prices would cost ca. EUR3bn. Selling completely out of the Russian business (ex renewables) would raise the capital to match that outlay but would also cost ca. EUR300m of annual free cash flow on our forecasts, thus shrinking the business and putting pressure on the dividend. Reiterate Underperform We update our estimates primarily reflecting better hydro for 2021 as well as a more efficient balance sheet structure (cash vs gross debt). Our price target moves to EUR17.3 from EUR16.9. For all the disposals and Uniper acquisition in the last 10 years Fortum''s fundamental story remains one of Nordic power prices and balance sheet management. We are more cautious on both than what the share price is reflecting.