Achieved price on track to drop below EUR30/MWh for the first time The combination of strong hydrology, especially in Norway (where Fortum does not operate generation), weak power demand across Europe due to the prevailing economic conditions, and relatively low gas prices, has pushed the forward curves to extremely low levels. Fortum has not altered its hedging behaviour and is ca. 60% open for 2022, which we estimate will be the first year in which the group will record an achieved price under EUR30/MWh and EUR8/MWh lower than the 2019 recorded level. Limited growth opportunities Adjusted net debt / EBITDA is running above 4x. Even though we assume ~EUR3bn of disposals in 2021 from the assets currently under strategic review (Baltic and Polish district heating, stake in Stockholm Exergi) as well as the issuance of EUR1.5bn in hybrids, we don''t view Fortum''s balance sheet as strong enough to carry out growth investments as well as continue paying the EUR1.1 DPS; the latter is a priority in management eyes we believe. The lack of a shovel-ready pipeline of projects means that even if the balance sheet strengthened above our expectations, the growth options would be rather limited. December 3rd CMD The relationship between Fortum and Uniper should officially be put onto more solid footing when Fortum presents the joint strategy for the two groups. Other than potentially further disposals and closer co-operation in the areas of hydrogen, nuclear and hydro, we do not expect any meaningful financial benefits to become evident for the medium term from that event. Reiterate Underperform We roll forward our SOTP PT to 2021 and set it at EUR16.1. Our 2021 and 2022 estimates are below consensus and on our forecasts Fortum will again struggle to cover the dividend with earnings post 2022.