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25 Nov 2025
Unresolved debates
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Unresolved debates
Fortum Oyj (FORTUM:HEL) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
25 Nov 2025 -
Author:
Wyburd Harry HW | Xu Joy JX -
Pages:
11 -
Hard to reconcile the CMD outcome with mgmt. comments at Q3 results, and beyond the absence of a PPA, we also think the +EUR330m OP upside guidance largely reflects volume normalisation which is likely already in consensus. Even a small PPA could have given some visibility into the core debate on l-t Nordpool pricing, but the topic, for now, remains unresolved.
No PPA, so no visibility into l-t Nordpool fundamentals that the market was looking for
We find it hard to rationalise Fortum''s positive narrative shift on PPAs ahead of the CMD, only to announce nothing today. One explanation could be that something was/is under negotiation and didn''t make it over the line in time. Despite the lack of a deal, the company did reiterate it is in live negotiations on DC PPAs, and has grid connected sites ready for offtaker deals, see p2. The core debate of whether a PPA could be signed at a premium to Nordpool therefore remains unresolved.
Earnings targets unlikely to move consensus materially but leverage shift is interesting
We think the headline +EUR330m comparable op. profit improvement is unlikely to move consensus much as mgmt. clarified it mostly comes from nuke/hydro volume normalisation that was already anticipated. Of all the non-PPA/demand updates though, the increase in ND/EBITDA envelope to 2.5x and comments on MandA were most interesting, keeping alive the notion of a Uniper asset acquisition which our past work suggests would be accretive.
Retain preference for peak generators
Even a small PPA today with indicative pricing would have helped answer the important debate over ''true'' long term Nordpool pricing, but the lack of anything at all leaves the topic unresolved. At a wider sector level though we remain cautious on baseload power exposures, especially amidst recent weakness in gas, and prefer exposure to peak generators like SSE/RWE/ENGI on potential capacity payment upside. See note. See p2 for key points/comments on the presentation.