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15 Aug 2024
Waiting for The Big One

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Waiting for The Big One
Fortum Oyj (FORTUM:HEL) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
15 Aug 2024 -
Author:
Wyburd Harry HW | De Antonio Alberto AD -
Pages:
12 -
Strong operational 2Q results helped by a few one-offs, but little from results to move the dial overall in our view - PPA demand is seen as strong, but still no sign of an as-yet-elusive major data centre PPA, and the co didn''t engage on special dividends / SBBs, suggesting these remain off the table.
Data centre PPAs - still waiting for The Big One
Plenty of encouraging commentary on the PPA market, emphasising rising enquiries from industrial and tech offtakers, but there was nothing tangible that would suggest a transformational PPA deal is in the pipeline. Behind-the-meter PPAs are seen as possible, but Fortum have not seen customer demand as yet. There were also interesting comments on data centre site development, see p2.
Getting closer to net cash, but no movement on B/S deployment
We estimate that once the Circular Solutions disposal is cashed in at y/e''24, Fortum will be on c0.2x ND/EBITDA, against management''s upper limit of 2-2.5x. This implies several EURbn of balance sheet headroom and rising, but we didn''t get any change in stance on how the headroom will be deployed - the company didn''t engage on questions re special divis. or share buybacks, suggesting that the current status quo of 90% earnings payout is the upper limit to shareholder returns in the near term.
Raising ests and TP on power, disposals
We raise our EPS, a little for FY24 on strong Q2 results, and substantially in FY26/27 on updated mark-to-market power. We also reflect the sale of the Circular Solutions business for more than we valued it in our SoTP. Our PT increases 5% to EUR11.9 (from EUR11.3). See p3 for details. With limited near-term organic growth drivers (recent cuts to growth capex) or catalysts (seemingly playing down special divi or SBB), and no tangible progress on data centre PPAs, we see limited impetus for money to flow into the shares - maintain Underperform.