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Strong margins despite more normal mix. Adj. EBIT +3-5% despite management caution on Q4. Momentum is there, but normalised multiple too high.
Wartsila Oyj Abp
Q2 results due on 19 July at 7.30 CET. We expect orders +11%, adj. EBIT margin 9.8% (7.4%). Valuation unattractive - keep SELL.
8% better orders, very low equipm. sales and strong margin. Many moving pieces, but adj. EBIT +2-5%. We consider valuation of recovered earnings too high. SELL
Better orders and cash flow, adj. EBIT +2-4%. Profitability 2024 is normalised at adj. P/E 17x. Has also overshot SOTP, down to SELL (Hold).
Q4 results due on 31 January. We expect orders +4%, adj. EBIT margin 10.9% (5.3%). Valuation unattractive, but momentum and structural changes support.
Wärtsilä held its Capital Markets Day yesterday, in which the management confirmed the financial targets set at the CMD two years ago. Given the lack of new information, the share price reaction remained muted (closed at +0.91%). The management reiterated its plan to support the decarbonisation of the Marine and Energy markets while focusing on improving the company’s profitability by providing more service-based agreements. We remain cautious on the stock.
Solid Q3 with better cash flow, adj. EBIT +2-5%. Storage reassessment surprising, opens up wide value range. Up to HOLD (Sell) as SOTP optimism will rule.
Wärtsilä reported Q3 FY23 order intake and profitability ahead of the street’s and our expectations. Moreover, the management upgraded the guidance for the demand environment in the Energy market to an improvement over the next 12 months (vs flat previously). Also, the group announced a strategic review of the energy storage business which could result in a potential divestment, causing the share price to surge >16% (at the time of writing). We will factor these strong results into our estimates.
Q3 results due on 31 October. We expect flat orders, margin 8.1% (5.7%). Stock now closer to TP but still on SELL.
Orders and underlying margins better, Storage in black. Adj. EBIT in '23e-'25e +3-6%. Uncertainties reduced although not eliminated. SELL.
Wärtsilä reported a strong Q2 FY23 update, with order intake and the comparable operating result ahead of the street’s expectations by 8% and 5%, respectively. This strong showing overshadowed the miss on net sales (6% below consensus), as the share price has surged >10% (at the time of writing). The management reiterated the outlook for demand in both the Marine and Energy markets to be the same as in the comparable period. We will upgrade our profitability estimates to incorporate the strong Q2 performance.
Q2 results due on 21 July at 7.30 CET. We expect orders +12%, margin 7.2% (6.1%). More charges; high uncertainty in earnings recovery.
Wärtsilä reported robust Q1 23 results, with beats across order intake, sales and profitability, primarily driven by the good momentum in the Services division. For FY 2023, while the outlook for the Marine business was reiterated, management downgraded the outlook for the Energy business over the next 12 month period (from Q2 23 to Q1 24). We will increase our estimates to incorporate the strong show in Q1 23 and are likely to retain our positive stance on the stock.
Wärtsilä reported weaker-than-expected Q4 FY22 results. While net sales were in line with consensus, order intake and comparable operating result were below both street and our expectations. No wonder the share price reacted negatively (-3.4% at the time of writing). For FY23, management expects demand to improve for the energy storage business but remain the same for the Marine business compared with last year. We maintain our cautiously optimistic view on the stock’s valuation.
Wärtsilä’s share price dropped >7% as the group reported Q3 FY22 results with a beat on net sales and order intake but a miss on profitability. Cost inflation, a less favourable sales mix and higher sales volumes for the (loss making) storage business weighed on the comparable operating profit. As expected, Q4 demand is anticipated to be weaker than a year ago due to the tough comparables. We will revise our estimates down to incorporate the weak performance.
Wärtsilä’s share price jumped c.2% (at the time of writing) driven by the strong Q2 22 results. The group reported a beat across order intake, sales, and profitability. However, cash from operations was impacted by delay in milestone payments. Management expects Q3 to be better than the corresponding period of last year, but the outlook continues to be uncertain. We will increase our estimates slightly and are likely to maintain our positive view on the stock.
Wärtsilä’s stock price was down 2% (at the time of writing) as the beat on sales was offset by the miss on operating profit. Order intake was largely in line with street expectations. For FY22, management expects the Russia/Ukraine crisis to continue to impact sales volumes, while margins are expected to be impacted by an unfavourable sales mix and cost inflation. The group continues to refrain from providing guidance due to the uncertain market conditions.
Wärtsilä’s share price plummeted >8% (at the time of writing) as the beat on Q4 sales and order intake was offset by the miss on comparable operating margins vs the street and our expectations. For FY22, while the company has guided for a better Q1 yoy, the margins are expected to be impacted by an unfavourable sales mix and cost inflation. We maintain our cautious view on the stock’s valuation.
Wärtsilä hosted its Capital Markets Day yesterday, where it provided further colour on its strategic pillars for ‘Transform and Perform’, as well as outlining its plan for achieving the new financial targets. We note that only two of the four announced targets were new, and there was also a lack of a concrete timeline for achievement. Moreover, with too many moving parts involved for reaching the targets, we maintain our cautious stance on the stock’s valuation.
Wärtsilä’s stock price soared >10% (at the time of writing) following the better-than-expected Q3 results today — as the group continues to see improvements in its two end-markets. Accelerated demand for energy storage solutions underpinned the order-intake and sales, while profitability benefited from a favourable sales mix. We will raise our estimates and target price, but see limited upside given the subdued activity levels in the cruise vessel segment and muted margin profile associated with energy storage vs. engine in the long run.
Wärtsilä’s Q2 results were in line with the street’s expectations. However, management’s guidance of uncertain outlook (amid prevailing operating environment), increase in taxes and higher-than-expected one-off costs weighed on the share price today (down c.2% at the time of writing). Improving activity levels and soft comparables resulted in the order intake coming in higher yoy, while profitability was supported by a favourable sales mix (skewed towards services). We will tweak our estimates to factor in the results.
Investors have flocked to Wärtsilä after the group reported better-than-expected order intake vs consensus estimates at Q1. The flat yoy order intake was supported by high activity level in energy storage and services within Energy and Marine Power segments. While we view this as a positive, we believe the surge in the stock price (up c.20%) is a bit of a market overreaction and expect the prices to recede in the coming weeks given that the near-term operating environment remains challenging.
Wärtsilä’s Q4 results failed to impress with the pandemic-related restrictions adversely impacting the group’s two end markets — marine and energy. Management expects the demand outlook to remain challenging in the near term as the pandemic continues to rage and countries remain under renewed lockdowns. With a change of guard at the helm, the market now looks to the new incoming CEO Håkan Agnevall to restore confidence.
Wärtsilä’s poor Q2 FY20 results beat the over-conservative street estimates on almost all financial metrics – while the group’s revenue was flat yoy, the comparable EBIT tanked 51% yoy and new orders declined 27% yoy. But, as management said, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, the group’s H2 FY20 performance is likely to remain subdued, we believe bulls are unlikely to get control of this script in the near term.
In Q1 FY20 (partially infected by Coronavirus), Wärtsilä managed to increase its sales, but profitability slipped materially. More concerning is the subdued outlook/operating environment for both the marine and energy segments, amidst a myriad of challenges – an inevitable recession, restricted mobility, tanked oil prices, cash-crunched utilities and lower energy consumption. No respite is expected in the near term.
ValuEngine Rating and Forecast Report for WRTBY
Wärtsilä closed FY19 books with weak financials, mainly due to subdued demand / macro-economic uncertainties and operational inefficiencies. Although a modest recovery in Q4 FY19 order-intakes (in both the marine and energy segments) brought some optimism among the investor community, it might be short-lived, if this improvement / demand does not sustain over the coming few months.
Wartsila continues to witness tough market conditions in both the Marine and Energy equipment businesses. While, at the Capital Markets Day event, management reiterated the long-term guidance / opportunities arising from the environment-friendly regulations in its businesses, we do not expect a respite in the near term, amidst the macro-economic uncertainties and intensifying competition.
After downgrading the FY19 outlook during the half-yearly results, management has now issued a severe profit warning. Besides the weaker-than-expected order intake, it expects the profitability from its existing projects to be significantly lower. We will trim our financial estimates materially.
Subdued order-intake continues for Wärtsilä in Q2 FY19, as both the businesses are facing near-term demand uncertainties. No wonder, management has downgraded its FY19 outlook from ‘solid’ to ‘soft’. We do not see any short-term respite for the company, and will revise our financial estimates downwards.
Wärtsilä’s Q1 results were somewhat disappointing, with its order intake and top-line lagging consensus estimates. While higher operating margins – driven by a favourable services mix, helped partially fill the void, restoration of healthy profitability should be a top priority. Even though our estimates would be trimmed, the stock recommendation is likely to be maintained.
Wärtsila reported Q4 18 figures which showed solid demand and top-line growth but failed to reach last year’s margin level. Q4 order intake grew by 24% yoy to €1,874m (versus €1,514m) with double-digit contributions from all three segments. For FY18, the order intake grew by 12% to €6,307m. Q4 sales reached €1,532m, a +6% increase yoy. For FY18, sales increased by 5% to €5,174m. Comparable operating results decreased to €226m (versus €241m) which corresponds to a 14.7% margin (versus 16.7% in Q4 17). For FY18, the comparable operating profit was stable at €577m (versus €576m in 2017), corresponding to an 11.2% margin (versus 11.7%). EPS was €0.25 versus €0.28 in Q4 18. For FY18, EPS was slightly up at €0.65 versus €0.63 last year.
Wärtsilä reported its Q3 18 results, which were below market expectations. Revenue grew double-digit but did not result in a margin improvement which was a disappointment. It is now rather unlikely that the company will be able to increase its operating margins in 2018. Order intake was stable amid a mixed trend within segments including -65% in Energy solutions due to project postponements and +55% in marine. All in all, the results were disappointing at several levels and the short-term prospects are not very exciting.
Wärtsilä reported mixed figures in H2 18. The order intake was healthy, posting +14% yoy mainly driven by Services and Marine Solutions and leading to a satisfactory book-to-bill of 1.25x. Revenue was down by 3% in Q2, as the Energy business decreased by 11%. Profitability was the main disappointment as the EBIT was flat yoy, leading to a slight improvement in EPS at €0.13 (versus €0.12).
Wärtsilä reported Q1 18 figures which fell short of market expectations in both revenues and operating margin. Demand was solid in Marine Solutions, mixed in Energy and stable in Services in Q1 18. The lack of momentum in demand for Services and revenue is now impacting the company’s margin. However, this disappointment should not be extrapolated, while the company expects overall demand to improve in 2018.
Wärtsilä reported Q4 17 results roughly in line with expectations, including a softer revenue but satisfactory order level of €1,514m corresponding to a +14% increase yoy led by Marine Solutions (+42%) and driven by the merchant segment. The operating margin level looks stuck once again at the 12% level, but the demand for Wärtsilä’s services and solutions in 2018 is expected to improve from the previous year.
Wârtsilä reported mixed figures in Q3 17 Orders grew by 19% in Q3 17, including +35% in Marine Solutions and +26% in Energy Solutins, while demand for Services was soft at +5% yoy. Revenue reached €1,178m, a 9% increase yoy driven by Energy Solutions (+83% yoy). Comparable operating result increased to €135m (versus €123m in Q3 16) and corresponds to a profit margin of 11.4% (unchanged). EPS was flat yoy at €0.43 while the cash flow from operating activities decreased to €150m from €189m in Q3 16. The company confirmed the overall development for 2017 is expected to be relatively unchanged from the previous year.
Q2 highlights: • Order intake increased 14% to €1,363m (€1,194m). • Net sales increased by 8% to €1,292m (€1,196m), beating consensus estimates of €1,214m. • Book-to-bill at 1.05 (1.00). • Comparable operating result increased to €126m (€122m), which represents 9.7% of net sales (10.2%). • Earnings per share increased to €0.38 (€0.19). • Cash flow from operating activities decreased to €2m (€202m). Wärtsilä’s overall development in 2017 is expected to be relatively unchanged from the previous year. The group raised its expectations for demand in Marine Solutions to “Solid” from “Soft”, thanks to a favourable vessel contracting mix. Moreover, the company still anticipates solid demand in Services and good demand in Energy.
- The company reported a positive development in the order intake of 11%, to €1,413m (vs €1,271m in Q1 16). This was mainly supported by the Energy and Services divisions. The marine market remains under pressure. - Net sales increased 4% to €1,007m (vs €967m). Net sales were supported by high power plant deliveries. - Book-to-bill was 1.40x (vs 1.31x). - Comparable operating result increased to €86m (vs €84m), which represents 8.5% of sales (vs €8.7m). - EPS declined to €0.28 (vs €0.30). - Cash flow from operating activities increased to €2m (vs €-13m). - Order book at the end of the period was stable at €5,096m (vs €5,103m).
Wärtsilä reported strong Q4 16 results despite subdued revenue. Main facts: - Order intake declined 6% to €1,324m with a mixed picture (Energy solution +37% and Marine Solutions -45% yoy). - Q4 revenue declined 2% yoy to €1,559m. - Book-to-bill still weak at 0.85x. - Comparable operating result improved to €253m, or 16.3% of revenue (versus €215m or 13.5%), a record high. - Earnings per share increased to €0.87 (€0.79). - Cash flow from operating activities increased to €235m (€176m), above expectations. As of 2017, Wärtsilä has changed its guidance policy to be consistent with general industry practice. The overall demand for Wärtsilä’s services and solutions in 2017 is expected to be relatively unchanged from the previous year. Demand by business area is anticipated to develop as follows: - Solid in Services with growth opportunities in selected regions and segments. - Solid in Energy Solutions, thanks to growth in electricity demand in the emerging markets and the global shift towards renewable energy sources, which will support the need for distributed, flexible, gas-fired power generation. - Soft in Marine Solutions. Although the outlook for the cruise and ferry segment is positive, the merchant, gas carrier, and offshore segments continue to suffer from overcapacity, slow trade growth and customers’ financial constraints. The Board of Directors proposes that a dividend of €1.30 per share be paid for the financial year 2016, paid in two instalments.
Wärtsilä reported its Q3 16 results, which showed weak sales and margins leading to a warning for the FY16 targets. Orders were the only positive in this Q3 16 report, showing a +5% increase yoy at €1139m and reflecting an improvement in demand for Energy solutions and despite weaker demand for Marine solutions. Net sales decreased by 12% to €1,079m (versus €1,222m) including -27% yoy for Energy solutions and -13% yoy for Marine solutions. The operating result was €123m, corresponding to an 11.4% margin (versus €160m, or 13.1% of sales, in Q3 15) was impacted by lower volumes. EPS was €0.43 (versus €0.49 in Q3 15) and cash flow from operations was €189m (versus €-5m in Q3 15). The company revised its FY16 guidance and now expects its revenues to decline by c.5% (versus growth between 0% to +5%) and profitability at around 12% versus between 12.5% and 13%.
Wärtsilä reported its Q2 16 results. Main facts: Order intake solid but a clear miss on the EBIT margin. > H1 16 revenues (€2,163m; -€55m lfl or -2% reported) > H1 16 operating result (€179m; -€58m lfl or -24% reported and -€31m at cc or -13%) > H1 16 cash flow from operations multiplied by 2.25x. > Q2 order intake was €1,194m vs €1,159m; +3% lfl > The comparable operating result reached €122m, or 10.2% of net sales (versus €137m, or 11.1%). The company confirmed it expects net sales to grow by 0-5%, and profitability to be 12.5-13.0%.
Main facts: Q1 16 sales reached €967m, down 2% yoy and below market expectations of €1.07bn, as Energy Solutions decreased 27% yoy, while Marine was up 4% yoy and Services was up only 3% due to the challenging comparison basis. Q1 16 order intake declined 1% yoy to €1.27bn. Comparable operating result reached €84m, or 8.7% of sales (€100m or 10.1% in Q1 15). EPS was €0.30 (versus €0.43). 2016 outlook was unchanged as the company sees sales growth of 0-5%, and the EBIT margin ex-items at 12.5-13.0%. Wartsila is to restructure the Marine and Energy businesses and expects ~600 job cuts, seeking annual savings of ~€40m.
With revenue growth of 5%, Wärtsilä's top line reached €5.029m in 2015, while the order intake was €4.932m, -3% yoy including -22% for Energy Solutions and -8% for Marine Solutions, partly offset by a +33% increase in Services. This led to a Book-to bill ratio of 0.98x pointing to a flat outlook. The order book however increased by +8% to €4.882m. The operating result before non-recurring items was €612m corresponding to a 12.2% margin, up by 30bp from last year (11.9%). The EPS was €2.25 also up by 28% yoy. For the Q415 alone, orders decreased by 8%, with -27% in Energy solutions while Marine proved more resilient at +1% and Services posted +2% growth with the same pattern in Q415 revenues but, however, showing an overall a +3% increase yoy (-14% in Energy Solutions, +8% in Marine and +10% in Services) leading to a 13.5% operating profitability. In 2016, Wärtsilä expects its net sales to grow by 0-5% and its operating profitability (EBIT % before non-recurring items) to be 12.5-13%.
Wärtsilä reported a weak order intake for Q3 15 to €1,086m (-17% yoy), led by very soft demand in the power division at €167m (-56% yoy) citing increasing competition, while Marine solutions decreased 12% to €407m and services increased 10% to €511m, including a 5-year maintenance agreement with Teck Alaska Inc. for its power plant in Alaska. This led to a book-to-bill ratio below 1x at 0.89x. Revenues increased 9% to €1,222m (versus €1,117m), led by the aftermarket and the integration of L-3 Marine Systems while the EBITA margin reached €170m or 13.9% of sales, a satisfactory level in comparison with last year (€149m or 13.3%). This led to a €0.49 EPS (vs €0.43 last year). The cash flow from operating activities was €-5m (vs +68m in Q3 14) as increased receivables weigh. The company confirmed its FY15 guidance for sales to grow by 5-10% and EBIT to be 12-12.5%, while noting the competition in the power generation markets is increasing, and the current macro-economic uncertainty continues to cause delays in customer decision-making.
Q2 15 figures are rather disappointing: order intake grew only 2% (-23% for Energy Solutions and +2% for Marine and +13% for Services) while revenue increased 10% to €1,230m leading to a book-to-bill ratio below 1x (0.94x). The EBIT margin was also a bit disappointing at 11.1% (vs 11.8% last year) although better than in Q1 15 (10.1% of sales). EPS was €0.54 vs €0.42 last year. Company reported that restructuring is pending in the Ship Power business to reflect the weak market situation: Wärtsilä seeks annual savings in the region of €40m, but the effect of the savings will materialise gradually beginning from Q3 15, and will take full effect by the end of 2016. The non-recurring costs related to the restructuring measures will be approximately €25-30m. The company updated its guidance to reflect the acquisition of L-3 Marine Systems International, which was finalised at the end of May and it now expect sales growth of 5-10% and profitability to be 12.0-12.5%. This represents no material change in the guidance as the contribution of L-3 represents c.5% growth on sales, with a slight dilution on margins.
