Post 31% 4Q20 cons EBIT beat, with maintained EUR1.30/sh dividend (4.3% yield), UPM''s Spearheads for Growth are on-track to double group EBIT to EUR1.9bn in FY24e. As confidence builds in 1) global pulp recovery 2) continued Communication Paper cash generation and 3) Spearheads for Growth delivery, expect UPM re-rating. Reaffirm Outperform with EUR36 TP. 31% 4Q20 cons EBIT beat, with maintained EUR1.30/sh dividend EUR252m 4Q20 EBIT was 31% beat vs EUR193m Infront Data cons, due Communication Paper, with smaller Energy, Raflatac (labels) and Speciality Paper divisional beats. Importantly: despite lower FY20 profits, with confident outlook: UPM maintained its EUR1.30 dividend (4.3% div yield). Modelling 15% CY21 pulp price recovery: our FY21/22e UPM ests are 5%/7% ahead of street UPM is ''net long'' 1mT pulp: each 10% pulp price = EUR63m annualised EBIT. Modelling 15% CY 2021 pulp recovery, our FY21/22e EBIT estimates sit 5%/7% ahead of street. UPM''s pulp sensitivity will increase post expected 2H22 opening of its 2.1mT Uruguay pulp mill. Spearheads on track to double UPM EBIT to EUR1.9bn in FY24 UPM ''Spearhead for Growth'' (Pulp in Uruguay and Bio-chemicals in Germany) are both ''well on track with the planned start-up timeline''. Due to global pulp recovery and Spearhead for Growth delivery, we model UPM EBIT doubling to EUR1.9bn in 2024 (giving 20% FY20-24 UPM EPS CAGR). Communication Paper managed for cash, will represent just 4% of FY24e EBIT UPM FY20 graphic paper volumes fell 19%, with EBIT down 53% to EUR180m (19% UPM FY20 EBIT). With Spearheads for Growth ramp-up, we model Communication Paper representing just 4% FY24e EBIT, with UPM continuing to exit paper capacity to maintain cash generation. Reaffirm Outperform with EUR36 TP As confidence builds in: 1) Global pulp recovery, 3) UPM ''Spearheads for Growth'' delivery, with 3) Continued appealing dividends: Expect 2021 UPM re-rating.