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3Q25: Off the call
UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM:HEL) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
29 Oct 2025 -
Author:
Muir-Sands Charlie CMS -
Pages:
11 -
Summary:
Conference call: A balanced call, with management highlighting improving profits in areas outside of their Fibre and Communication Paper divisions. These have each suffered from pricing headwinds and also cost headwinds in their Finnish operations. Looking forward, pulp prices appear to have bottomed and wood prices in Finland have softened. Bridging Q3 to implied Q4 guidance, the main moving items relate to energy refunds - guided in line with PY''s EUR 75m (in line with our forecasts) - and Finnish forestry revaluation - also guided in line with PY of EUR105m (we had forecasted EUR40m). One possible critique of today''s results and guidance is that it appears reaching guidance is predicated on a sizeable non-cash Finnish forestry revaluation which was ahead of our expectations (no consensus to benchmark to). Hence, shares modestly down, as we type, which seems a reasonable reaction to today''s results.
Results: We last heard from UPM at Q2 on 24 July. Today the company reports Q3 results with comparable EBIT EUR153m vs Infront consensus EUR160m, and below our EUR192m estimate (albeit we note Bloomberg consensus was EUR153m). Comparable EBITDA was a greater shortfall, offset by a larger gain from the change in FV of forest assets and wood harvested. H2 guidance has been reconfirmed: EUR425-650m comparable EBIT, the mid-point of which is 15% above consensus. However, the bottom of the guidance range sits 9% below consensus. Hence given results we think consensus is likely to trim estimates today.
Main points from Q3 results call
n.b. outlook comments already provided in the statement in detail. See 3Q25 first take: Q3 comp. EBIT 4% miss vs most comprehensive cons.; H2 guide unchanged, albeit v wide. Hence below we just summarise incremental news from the call.
- H2 guidance: On the H2 guidance of EUR425-650m (which requires operational EBIT of EUR272m in Q4 to reach the lower end vs. Q3 of EUR153m), the two main sequential drivers are:...