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26 Apr 2024
A great fibre provider (& questions for mgmt..)
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A great fibre provider (& questions for mgmt..)
UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM:HEL) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
26 Apr 2024 -
Author:
Muir-Sands Charlie CMS | Merrick Lewis LM -
Pages:
12 -
Q1 EBIT a clean beat, mainly driven by Fibres (pulp)
UPM''s Q1 comp. EBIT fell 7% yoy but was EUR75m/ 29% ahead of consensus with two-thirds of the beat from Fibres and the remainder from Energy. Looking into Q2 the company will experience more maintenance downtime, as already flagged, but beyond that management confirmed an unencumbered 2H should result in significant profit acceleration. Taking a more upbeat view on pulp pricing near term we raise forecasts materially albeit outer years are less impacted resulting in a more modest increase in our target price. Trading on 9x 2025 EV/EBIT we reiterate Outperform.
UPM''s Fibres volumes continue to ramp nicely
Fibres volumes rose another 3% qoq despite Finnish political strike disruptions with Uruguay operations more than compensating. In Q2 a two-week maintenance turnaround will dent volumes but looking into 2H we expect Paso de los Toros to fully ramp up with costs benefitting from leverage and the recent start of rail connections from mill to deep sea port. This should reduce production costs from USD500-550/tonne today (on our estimate) to the longstanding USD280/tonne target.
Pulp prices are proving more resilient than we previously anticipated
Reflecting near-term supply tightening (Finnish strikes, Kemi explosion, Red Sea) market pulp prices have continued to climb even as we approach the arrival of significant new supply into the market (UPM full operations in 2H; new Suzano mill etc). We now model BEK $100m higher in 2024.
Increasing DCF-derived target price to EUR40 - reiterate Outperform
In the wider business destocking effects are also over whilst prices are also improving. With capex also reducing we see free cash flow accelerating from 2025 onwards, even if the Rotterdam biorefinery project goes ahead. With higher forecasts our target price increases to EUR40 (from EUR37). For those meeting management soon, including at our conference on 14 and 15 May, see inside for questions.