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                    26 Jul 2022 
Back on track, spearing growth with energy tailwind
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Back on track, spearing growth with energy tailwind
UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM:HEL) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published: 
26 Jul 2022  - 
                                            
                                            
                                            Author:
                                                
Jordan Justin JJ | Borrows George GB  - 
                                            
                                            Pages:
                                                
11  - 
                                            
                                         
UPM reported 26% 2Q22 Comparable EBIT growth to EUR387m on July 21. With Uruguay pulp mill on track for 1Q23 ramp-up: We remain confident of UPM''s evolution from structurally challenged graphic paper to green growth in pulp, biofuels and bio-chemicals. Outperform with unchanged EUR38TP.
4% 2Q22 cons EBIT miss, due to slower than expected post-strike Finnish pulp ramp-up 
UPM EUR387m 2Q22 Comparable EBIT was 4% Infront Data consensus miss, due to slower than anticipated Finnish pulp ramp-up, following UPM''s January-April 2022 strike. 
Uruguay pulp mill on track for 1Q23e ramp-up; Expect EUR600m+ EBIT contribution. 
UPM''s EUR3bn 2.1mT Uruguay pulp mill is on track for 1Q23e start. Post ramp-up, we believe this new pulp mill can contribute some EUR600m UPM comparable EBIT (or over EUR1,000m EBIT, if current pulp prices were maintained).
UPM is ''net long'' energy, hence its profits are boosted by higher energy prices 
UPM consume 11.7m TWh of electricity and produce 14.0m TWh of electricity annually. This 2.3m TWh UPM ''net long'' electricity, will increase by additional 3m TWh to 5.3m TWh ''net long'' post ramp-up of new Finnish OL3 nuclear power reactor in December 2022, hence UPM benefits from higher electricity / energy prices.
Back on track, with spearheads in view: Outperform with unchanged EUR38TP 
Following Finnish strike resolution, with increased energy prices and Uruguay pulp mill on-track for 1Q23e ramp-up, UPM is firmly ''back on track''. Confident of UPM''s evolution from structurally challenged graphic paper to green growth in pulp, biofuels and bio-chemicals: reaffirm outperform with (unchanged) EUR38TP.