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22 Sep 2025
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UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM:HEL) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
22 Sep 2025 -
Author:
Muir-Sands Charlie CMS -
Pages:
10 -
What happened?
We have spoken to UPM-Kymmene, which is due to report Q3 results on 29 October, and highlight there has been no change to the outlook. As a reminder, the company guides H2 comparable EBIT at EUR425-650m.
Our key conclusions from the call:
. Fibres: The decline in pulp prices seen in Q2 and into Q3 will mean a lower average price, as will the impact of a weaker US dollar on revenues. Uruguay operations continue to make steady progress in lowering production costs whilst the Fibres segment should also benefit from c.EUR45m lower maintenance costs quarter-on-quarter, as previously guided. UPM note pulpwood costs in Finland have started to decline, though changes in supply-demand balance from its own and other actions have been insufficient so far to fully balance to available supply.
. Energy: Energy prices in Finland have risen due to re-establishment of the interconnector to export grid power to the Baltics, as well as lower hydro balances (+EUR11.6/MWh quarter-to-date versus Q2). With no maintenance in Q3 (versus all three nuclear sites in Q2) delivery volumes should also be higher.
. Communication Paper was severely impacted by demand and trade/ tariff uncertainties in Q2 and, though abating, these are likely to still manifest in Q3. Ettringen closure negotiations were slower than anticipated (as publicly announced) so savings here will be manifest only from Q4, whilst Kaukas paper-making closure savings will benefit the PandL from 1Q26.
. Specialty Paper and Adhesive Materials: the label value chain remains subdued, though fine and specialty paper should benefit from lower pulp costs.
. Plywood should benefit sequentially from the backlogs following the end of strikes in Q1/ Q2.
. Other: the biofuels market continues to see modest price improvement, though the biochemicals (pre-revenue) startup is likely to result in higher incurred costs.
Consensus'' implied 2H25 comparable EBIT is EUR475m (per Bloomberg). Given the above market...