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    Citycon Oyj

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    Citycon Oyj

  • 27 Mar 20
Cenkos: 1pm plc -- Supporting UK SMEs through difficult times

1pm has provided a trading update outlining its response to the current Covid-19 outbreak. Operations continue as usual (remotely) and the group continues to write new business, however, it has received multiple requests for repayment deferrals. The group is offering this flexibility where merited to assist credit worthy UK SMEs and has the balance sheet to absorb these lower cash collections. 1pm's own funders remain supportive to the business. Given the uncertainty over the duration of the outbreak and the impact the UK's shutdown is having on 1pm's trading, we withdraw forecasts and put our recommendation under review.

Companies: 1PM
  • 27 Mar 20
LIBERUM: Non-Standard Finance - Prudent actions taken should position the business well

We believe that NSF’s response to the current pandemic is in the interests of all its stakeholders. The operational shift towards remote working helps protect its staff whilst enabling its clients to continue to access the services they need. Similarly, its decision to reduce lending and focus on its existing clients and those most in need, is the prudent thing to do. These actions, combined with the high risk-adjusted margins on its existing loan book should enable the group to generate positive cash flow, even allowing for an increase in impairment during the current period of economic uncertainty. This should leave the group in a stronger position to serve its clients and win share when the current government restrictions are lifted. As a result, of this medium-term outlook we reiterate our BUY rating.

Companies: Non-Standard Finance
  • 27 Mar 20
LIBERUM: Premier Miton Group* - Oversold. 34% of market cap is net cash

Premier Miton has been the worst performing asset manager YTD, despite evidence that the benefits of its merger are coming through, and its funds are outperforming. Our mark-to-market suggests that if markets remain at current levels until financial year-end in Sep’20, the shares would only be trading on 7.1x FY21 P/E, an extreme valuation for a company with significant self-help opportunities, and an extremely strong balance sheet. Our analysis also suggests PMI will enjoy increasing net cash balances over two years, reaching c.£37m in FY20 or 34% of the current market cap. As a result, we see the current share price as an extremely attractive entry point. Our updated TP of 152p is driven by a DCF assuming flat AUM for 3 years and implies 125% upside.

Companies: Premier Miton Group
  • 19 Mar 20
LIBERUM: Ramsdens Holdings* - Modelling the COVID-19 impact

Given the substantial share price decline for Ramsdens in the last month, following clear risks to near term earnings, we revisit the group’s valuation and suggest a potential impact to earnings from the COVID-19 related lockdown. The analysis shows that Ramsdens has a solid balance sheet with a number of clear valuation supports and will be able to withstand the extreme conditions that are likely to occur over the coming months. We use an 8x multiple on FY20 earnings as a reflection of a normalised earnings base which reduces our target price to 180p from 258p. At this target price Ramsdens would trade on a FY21 P/B of 1.6x and yield 4.5%. This target price offers 114% upside and we retain BUY.

Companies: Ramsdens
  • 23 Mar 20
LIBERUM: NewRiver* - Pubs closed, which has been planned for

Following the UK Government announcement on Friday, NewRiver has closed its Community pub business with immediate effect. This had been anticipated.

Companies: Newriver Reit
  • 16 Mar 20
LIBERUM: Plus500* - Superior Platform in a Perfect Storm

Favourable trading conditions have led to Plus500 issuing its second trading update in less than a month. Not only has the recent surge in volatility resulted in a significant increase in client activity, the strength of the group’s platform and brand has helped it deliver stronger user growth during Q1’20. The combination of the strong financial and operational performance sees us upgrade our FY20 PBT estimate by 52%. Despite the clear opportunity for the company to continue to win market share and deliver profitable growth, the shares trade on just 6.6x CY21 earnings. As a result, we reiterate our BUY rating and increase our TP to 1450p (from 1000p).

Companies: Plus500
  • 27 Mar 20
Mercia Asset Management - Embedded value despite COVID-19 impact

Mercia’s business update highlighted the breadth of its portfolio (c 400 companies) and the strength of its cash position – £30.4m of unrestricted balance sheet cash and £190m of investment capital in its managed funds, giving c £220m of uninvested cash. However, with lower revenues now expected in FY21, Mercia also recognises that the valuations of both the NVM VCT portfolios, whose fund management contracts were acquired in December (22% fall in average NAV), and its own portfolio have been affected by market conditions. With group results not due until July, based on a read-across from the 22% fall in the NVM portfolios, we calculate a hard NAV for Mercia of 25.0p. Added to our assumption of the value of the third-party fee-earning funds business (2–3% of a reduced FUM), this would imply an indicative value for Mercia of 30.6–33.4p. Mercia trades at a c 50% discount to our indicative value today.

Companies: Mercia Technologies
  • 27 Mar 20
Capital Access' Hot Off The Wires - The Day Ahead

Today's news & views, plus announcements from AAL, SSE, CCH, NXT, FLTR, MGGT, PHP, RMG, BBY, RDW, DOM,WJG, GATC,

Companies: Primary Health Properties
  • 08 Jan 20
UK Housebuilding Sector: 2020 vision: Sharpness and clarity for industry prospects

For fighter pilots, it is a minimum requirement. But having 20/20 ‘visual acuity’ (correct term) does not necessarily mean you have perfect vision (as convention assumes); instead, it indicates sharpness and clarity of vision at a distance. It is measured by a Snellen Chart, which displays letters of progressively smaller size and whereby 20/20 means that the test subject sees the same line of letters at 20 feet that a person with normal vision sees at 20 feet (or 6 metres; but 6/6 simply didn’t catch on).

Companies: ABBY BDEV BWY BKG VTY CRN CSP CRST GLE GLV INL MCS PSN RDW SPR TW/ WJG

  • 25 Mar 20
Lok'nStore

Underlying resilience warrants upgrade

Companies: Lok'n Store Group
  • 05 Mar 20
No big issues for 2020

Aviva announced an operating profit of £3,184m (up 6% yoy) and an IFRS profit after tax at £2,663m, better than expected. The main source of operating earnings improvement was the reduction in net expenses in the UK digital business by £165m regarding 2018. The cash remittance reached £2,597m, and the insurer is on the right track to deliver one of the key 2022 targets: remitting £8.5-9bn over 2019-22. We keep our positive opinion on the stock.

Companies: Aviva Plc
  • 20 Mar 20
LIBERUM: UK Small & Mid Cap Dispatches

Cerillion Initiation, Civitas Social Housing, U&I, Strategy Flash, COVID-19 Updates: Leisure, PayPoint, Joules, Mining Upgrades, SMID Market Highlights

Companies: CER CSH UAI PAY JOUL

  • 23 Mar 20
LIBERUM: Orchard Funding Group* - An attractive model in the current environment

The attractive characteristics of Orchard’s loan book are in our view, why the shares have materially outperformed in recent weeks. Having said this, the current valuation fails to fully reflect its robust lending model and any of the upside associated with the receipt of a banking license. With the application progressing well, and submission due next month, we believe that this transformational catalyst could be experienced within the next 12 months. This, combined with a relatively resilient business model in current environment leads us to reiterate our BUY and 119p TP.

Companies: Orchard Funding Group
  • 27 Mar 20
LIBERUM: Alternatives Daily: VOF | SUPR | COVID-19 | Insider Buying

VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund - Strong pipeline of private equity investmentsSupermarket Income REIT - Rent reviews result in 1.3% uplift to annualised rental incomeCOVID-19 Updates - Assessing the impactInsider Buying - Management seeing buying opportunities

Companies: VINACAPITAL VIETNAM OPPORTUN
  • 27 Mar 20
LIBERUM: Podcast: Best idea of the week - CLS and the Real Estate Sector

Best idea of the week - CLS and the Real Estate Sector

Companies: CLS