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03 Feb 2025
Becoming more of an AI story

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Becoming more of an AI story
Nokia Oyj (NOKIA:HEL) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
03 Feb 2025 -
Author:
Paramaguru Kohulan KP | Bluestone Jakob JB -
Pages:
21 -
Nokia Q4 24 results showed continued improvement in underlying trends, even if results were flatted by ~EUR160m of one-offs, rounding out 2024 with EUR700m one-offs altogether. 2025 should be more about improving underlying growth even if one-offs are likely to be smaller. While we see stronger structural growth in semis longer term, Nokia remains our relative pref. in EU Commtech.
What did we learn that we did not know previously?
1. Growth in 2025. Nokia no longer guides by segment but expects solid top line growth in both NI and CNS. Nokia guided for flattish top-line in MN despite a ~4pp headwind from ATandT contract loss. 2. Gross margin benefited from large one-offs during 2024 but the underlying performance was around 38-39% and Nokia appears to be set to sustain this. 3. Softer Q1 25. Nokia faces a tough comp in CNS and MN and is coming off a very strong Q4 24 which included some high-margin one-offs, plus Q1 tends to be the least profitable qtr of the year. So growth rates could slow a bit, even if the underlying y/y dynamics are improving. 4. Nokia continues to strike an upbeat tone about its AI/datacentre opportunity with improving traction and some interesting contract wins. While it is debatable if there was any genuinely new data point on this front, the very bullish tone sent the shares sharply higher on the release day.
Has our thesis changed? No
We have long argued Nokia is a play on fixed vs Ericsson which is a peer on mobile - and we prefer fixed over mobile for network investment. There is upside potential if Nokia breaks into the datacentre router market as a clear challenger, but it is still too early to gauge if this will happen.
Changes to estimates - TP raised to EUR4.5/USD4.9 (from EUR3.6/USD3.9)
We hike EPS after updating for the strong Q4 24 results but are merely in line with 26 consensus operating profit and below for outer years.