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Conference Call Feedback
What happened?
Nokia''s 4Q24 conference call has just concluded (see Nokia: 4Q24 First Take). As a reminder, Nokia published solid results with a 4% revenue beat and a 20% EBIT beat. However, the guidance for 25 was a touch light vs headline consensus which takes a bit of the shine off. The 25 guidance implies EBIT consensus to move by -8%. Please find below our key takeaways from the conference call:
BNPP Exane View:
. Outlook. Not explicitly guided by divisional sales anymore. However, management expect strong growth in Nokia''s (NI) Cloud and Network Services (CNS) within both core and also Enterprise campus/edge and stable Mobile Networks (MN) performance despite a 4% headwind from the AandT contract loss. Optical growth is expected to be particularly ''strong'', but clearly lower than the 17% growth seen in Q4. Management was also keen to state the focus is not just about cost reduction, they want to reinvest some of the savings to unlock growth, especially in defence and datacentres/AI.
. Mobile Networks. Gross margin was impacted by one-offs in Q4, but underlying performance was around 38-39%. Overall, the revenue guide is towards a flattish trend despite some parts of the business declining. Management is still focused on how they can drive top-line in future, they believe they have a strong technology base into 2025. However, they admit in reality the service provider market is unlikely to be a growth market - there will be some recovery in the market (ex-ATandT they will take their share of the growth). They also reiterate they want to maintain prudence on pricing given Chinese competitors (they pushback that this is detrimental to share). They also take no view on whether regulation eliminates Chinese competition in Europe and Latin America and more broadly in future if their competitors can match them on leading edge silicon (Chinese players do not have EUV). Thus, Nokia is pivoting to a focus on private wireless, private markets, public...