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26 Jun 2025
Press reports of restructuring to come

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Press reports of restructuring to come
What happened?
The Finnish press is today highlighting potentially aggressive cost cutting with the centralization of some functions and a big reduction in the workforce to potentially 72-77k employees from the c.78k as at YE24. Nokia shares were down 4% at the time of writing.
BNPP Exane View: The sell off in Nokia shares in our view is surprising given the news of restructuring and management change is not an obvious negative.
Potentially there might be market concerns that this is a sign of near-term operating weakness necessitating restructuring. However, we believe it is more likely linked to the arrival of a new CEO who will be hosting a CMD in November laying out a new strategy for the group. From the comment so far, we expected this to include a pivot towards more NI / AI related growth and perhaps de-emphasising some mobile activities (where Nokia has suffered a large contract loss in recent years). Broadly these look like sensible moves in our view as NI is more likely to deliver faster growth over the next couple years than MN (where growth could slow as the loss of the major contact kicks in and as the post inventory correction has now largely played out). There might be some incremental costs associated with this both in terms of AI related costs and perhaps restructuring too. But ultimately we believe this would be seen as the correct direction of travel.
It is also possible that the share price weakness is linked to the upcoming results and not today''s news. We would note that Nokia''s upcoming Q2 25 results face a tough comp given the presence of a large one-off settlement a year ago and generally tougher comps. On top of this the company also faces tough FX headwinds given the recent weakness in the USD (impact on revs is approx half the FX move).
Net-net we believe the key focus areas for the stock are the Q2 25 results themselves (a bit tough given above mentioned issues with little new on strategy) and then the CMD in...