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30 Oct 2020
Q3''20 postview. That''s it?
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Q3''20 postview. That''s it?
Nokia Oyj (NOKIA:HEL) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
30 Oct 2020 -
Author:
Slowinski Stefan SS | Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC -
Pages:
18 -
Nokia management outlines strategy, with limited details
Pekka Lundmark was named CEO nearly eight months ago. Coming from Fortum, the architect of the EUR6bn+ transformational acquisition of Uniper, we believe some investors were hoping that this ''deal man'' would have answers. While only being in the job for three months, he has had time to review Nokia''s strategy, and devise a plan to re-establish Nokia as a cash generative global networks leader. Yet, yesterday''s announcement was limited to an operational re-organisation, the guidance for several hundred million euros more of RandD, and hope that political pressure on their Chinese competitor would persist. Nokia acknowledged that its failure to be chosen as a 5G supplier by Verizon, and its being shut out of China 5G, will make 2021 ''challenging''. We did not expect much more and ramping up RandD in order to take advantage of Huawei''s upcoming market share loss was the right decision. We wonder if the RandD ramp-up is enough. In our recent report (Awaiting Pekka Lundmark''s Mario Draghi Moment) we had already increased RandD by EUR500m over two years for Nokia to match investments by Ericsson, Juniper and Ciena.
So is that it?
We doubt it. Pekka Lundmark stated that he would do ''whatever it takes to win in 5G''. Standing each of the Networks businesses on their own two feet opens the door to a future divestiture, with the Optical business being the most likely candidate. In addition, a strategy session is scheduled for 16 December. We expect the announcement of restructuring charges as Nokia sheds datacenters and moves its internal IT to Google Cloud Platform, and as the reorganisation triggers other departures. This, along with falling revenues in 2021, lower margins and the reversal of working capital outflows is likely to send cash flow generation lower again.
Upgrade to Neutral as shares fall below our target price
Our estimates come down to reflect a greater fall in 2021 revenue (from -2%...