Globally, no surprise about Elisa’s Q2 results but the group remains a solid and reassuring slight growth story in the telecom sector.
Elisa’s stock is just about to return to its pre-pandemic level. It means for us that it is now again at its fair price, very expensive in terms of EV/EBITDA (>13x) and offering a best-in-class 3.8% dividend yield. We have been for a week at Reduce on the stock with no downside.
Companies: Elisa Oyj Class A
Globally, no surprise with the Q4 performance which was a little bit better than in previous quarters.
The good news is that the Board will propose a solid dividend of €1.95 per share for 2020 up by 5.4% yoy. This is a little bit better than what we were expecting (€1.9).
All in all, its valuation (the best in European telcos) is now correct and offers only little potential.
No surprise regarding the Q3 release with revenues and EBITDA both growing by 1% yoy, but beyond the pandemic we clearly believe that Elisa is reverting to a no-growth status in the telecom sector.
This means that its valuation (the best in European telcos) is a little bit excessive. We maintain our opinion at Reduce on the stock.
A solid Q2 for Elisa but we maintain our opinion at Reduce: we still believe the group is now too expensive as it is going to see its EBITDA growth slowing in 2020/21. Be cautious, Elisa is at risk of reverting to a no-growth status in the telecom sector in H2 20. According to the outlook given by management, 2020 revenue is estimated to be at the same level or slightly higher than in 2019 and… the same thing for EBITDA.
A solid Q1 for Elisa but we maintain, however, our opinion at Reduce: we still believe the group is now too expensive as it is going to see its EBITDA growth slowing in 2020/21. The group’s EV is trading at no less than 13.5x EBITDA, which is very expensive compared to other European telcos. The group has paid a dividend of €1.85 for 2019, corresponding to a 3.5% dividend yield which stands well below the average of its peers at c.5.5%.
The Q4 release confirmed that, organically, Elisa is indeed a no-growth story in terms of revenue while its efficiency programmes and the good integration of acquisitions allowed a good increase in its EBITDA throughout 2019.
We still believe the group is now too expensive as it is going to see its EBITDA growth slowing in 2020. We maintain our opinion on the stock at reduce
Q2 revenues were still down by nearly 2% yoy, as in the previous quarter. Although the EBITDA was quite correct (+2.8% yoy) and that 5G should allow slightly better figures in H2, the group seems fully priced. It already offers a 4.3% dividend yield, which is the lowest in its sector in Europe.
Stock down by 3% at the opening.
Q4 revenues were down by 0.4% yoy, while EBITDA grew by 3%. Note that revenue growth is now flat as the acquisitions made at the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017 (Starman and Santa Monica) have had an impact up to Q2 18. The Q3 and Q4 flat revenues reflect indeed that Elisa without external growth is a classic no-growth story in the European telecom sector.
Like in previous quarters, efficiency improvements have allowed a slight increase in the EBITDA margin. Elisa is indeed continuing its
Elisa released this morning its Q3 update.
Q3 revenues were flat yoy while EBITDA grew by 2.1%. Note that revenue growth is poorer than in the previous quarter (Q2 revenues were up by 2.8%) but the acquisitions made at end 2016 and the beginning of 2017 (Starman and Santa Monica) have had an impact of c.1.5% on the accounts in Q2. So if we exclude moreover some of the recent divestments made by the group, the Q3 organic growth at c.1% yoy is globally correct and in line with the previous quarte
Q4 revenue increased by 9% on the previous year, while EBITDA grew by 11% (excluding non-recurring items related to restructuring costs).
Like in the previous quarters, recent acquisitions (Starman in Estonia and Santa Monica in the Finnish corporate segment), growth in mobile services and digital services in both customer segments have affected revenue positively. The Q4 numbers show better organic growth than in Q3 (nearly +2% vs only +1% in Q3): the decrease in usage and subscriptions of tra
Q3 revenue increased by 8% on the previous year, while EBITDA grew by 7%.
Like in Q2, recent acquisitions (in particular in Estonia), growth in mobile services and digital services in both customer segments have affected revenue positively. But the Q3 numbers still show low organic growth, like in previous quarters. However, the decrease in usage and subscriptions of traditional fixed telecom services, and lower roaming and interconnection revenue in Finland, have affected revenue negatively.
Q2 revenues and EBITDA have both increased by 13% yoy thanks to the consolidation of Starman and Santa Monica Networks (completed in April). Adjusted for these acquisitions, revenues and EBITDA were, however, up by c.3.5%, a quite correct performance in a mature and competitive Finnish market.
Q1 revenues have increased by 7% yoy while EBITDA grew by 5% thanks to the consolidation of Anvia (this is the last quarter of adjustment as the company was bought a year ago). Adjusted for this acquisition, revenues and EBITDA were, however, up by c.2.5%, a quite correct performance in a mature and competitive Finnish market.
Note the Estonian Competition Authority approved on 20/03/2017 the transaction in which Elisa acquires 100% of Starman’s capital. The transaction is now expected to be cl
Q4 revenues have increased by 7% yoy while EBITDA grew by 6% thanks to the consolidation of Anvia. Adjusted for this acquisition, revenues were, however, up by 2.5% while the EBITDA was up by nearly 3.5%.
Elisa has given a relatively cautious outlook for 2017: full-year revenue and EBITDA are estimated to be at the same level or slightly higher than in 2016. Full-year capex is expected to be a maximum of 13% of revenue (a number below the average of its peers but it’s quite logical given that E
Q2 revenues increased by 1% yoy while EBITDA grew by 2% thanks to continued efficiency improvements. A quarter perfectly in line with expectations after a slightly better than expected Q1 (revenues were up by 2% yoy but EBITDA had grown in parallel by 6%).
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Calnex Solutions has announced that due to continued strong levels of trading throughout H1/22, expected to be maintained in H2/22, FY22E revenue and profitability are anticipated to be materially ahead of expectations. We have consequently upgraded our PBT forecasts for FY22E and FY23E by 27.2% and 20.4% to £5.6m and £6.0m respectively. Calnex continues to accelerate its investment in R&D and broaden its product roadmap to benefit from the significant underlying growth drivers within the worldw
Companies: Calnex Solutions Plc
Cyanconnode has released a strong trading update, highlighting the material jump in activity we factor into our forecasts. The Company is delivering on growth opportunities despite the challenges associated with COVID and global supply chains and expects to meet market expectations for the year. We remain buyers.
Companies: CyanConnode Holdings plc
Exactly one year ago, the FTSE 100 closed at 5,862, having fallen 100 points on the day, the lowest point since mid-May 2020, due in part, to the strength of sterling vs US$ at $1.34. One year on, the FTSE 100 has risen to 7,119, a rise of 21%, it remains 7% below the peak in January 2020. From an international viewpoint, US and European markets continue to trade at record highs. The US Federal Reserve is close to withdrawing some of its economic support this year as inflation picks up and the e
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Calnex Solutions has today confirmed that the strong levels of customer spend experienced during H1/21 have continued into H2/21. Consequently, with FY21E revenue and profitability both anticipated to be ahead of market expectations, we have upgraded our FY21E revenue and adjusted PBT forecasts by 12.6% and 18.9% to £17.3m and £5.1m, respectively. Calnex has firmly established a trusted reputation worldwide, launching multiple first to market telecoms and network testing solutions. The exponenti
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Vodafone released this morning a solid Q1 in terms of revenue, a good performance that is quite logical however as there is partial recovery compared to Q2 20.
Remember, the key point which had worried the market three months ago with the annual release was that free cash flow would be only €5.2bn for 2021/22 vs €5bn in 2020/21 but vs €5.7bn in 2019/20. Vodafone has confirmed this number this morning.
We maintain our Buy opinion on the stock.
Companies: Vodafone Group Plc
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Companies: Gamma Communications PLC
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Companies: CPX MWE MIRA MBT
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