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Amundi published unexciting Q3 results with a revenue miss being offset by strong opex discipline. AuM came in higher than anticipated thanks to the very welcome surprise recovery in net inflows (€14bn). Amundi remains however sensitive to market fluctuations and we will keep this in mind when updating our forecasts.
Companies: Amundi (AMUN:EPA)Amundi SA (AMUN:PAR)
AlphaValue
Amundi posted a good Q2, built on a doubling of performance fees, higher management fees thanks to a better client mix and higher AuM, as well as a higher technology revenue and higher financial income on net cash invested. Cost discipline was kept strong again. Inflows remained, however, modest due to the risk-averse environment. We may change marginally our estimates but we will keep our conservative market scenario in our forecasts.
Amundi realized a better than expected Q1 thanks to higher management fees, supported by a favorable change in mix partly offsetting the AuM decline and net outflows. Performance fees were also better than expected despite the poor market performance. Cost discipline was again very strong with inflation, development expenses and a negative FX effect largely absorbed by productivity gains and synergies from the Lyxor integration.
Amundi realised a better Q4 than expected thanks to a beat on the top line which was supported by higher AuM on the back of the market’s recovery, as well as higher inflows and technology revenue. Management made good progress on Lyxor’s cost synergies which helped reduce costs below consensus. Lyxor’s integration looks well on track. Long-term targets were maintained.
Amundi continued to face a harsher environment. Q3 revenue was down due to lower performance fees while management fees benefitted from the Lyxor acquisition impact. AuM continued to decline on a quarterly basis while the group recorded net outflows. Lyxor’s operational integration was completed this quarter with the synergy implementation progress well on track.
Amundi’s Q2 was affected by the poor market performance over the period which led to a rapid fall in performance fees and to a qoq decline in management fees due to a quarterly decline in AuM. Profitability also took a hit as a consequence of the revenue decline, leaving the efficiency ratio below the management’s target. On a positive note, Amundi showed relatively higher resilience to the market downturn than most of its peers. Caution may be needed for 2022.
Amundi unveiled its strategic ambitions for the 2022-25 period. The asset manager has left its financial targets unchanged from its previous plan, targeting a >5% net income CAGR, a <53% C/I ratio after all Lyxor synergies are implemented and a 65% dividend payout ratio which may be supplemented by an up to €2bn buy-back if Amundi does not perform M&A operations with the excess capital generated over the period.
Amundi realized a good Q1, outpacing expectations on both revenue and net result, as AuM suffered not that badly from the Q1 market downturn, and the group recorded net inflows. Expenses were in-line with expectations as Lyxor’s integration was on track. Despite a C/I deterioration, Amundi remains amongst the most efficient asset-managers. Topline wise, Amundi’s diversified business model and expansion towards growth-oriented segments (passive management) should help the firm navigate any potent
Amundi released this morning its numbers for Q3 21. For once, numbers were weaker than consensus expectations. Operating income was above expectations but only driven by higher performance fees. Net inflows were of low quality due to outflows in the French retail networks and big outflows in Amundi’s JVs (in China). We are comfortable with our current estimates and our current recommendation.
Amundi released this morning its numbers for Q2 21. This was another record high quarter in terms of profit (first quarter with new CEO Valerie Baudson). The beat was yet mostly driven by a high level of performance fees (expected to normalise in the coming quarters). Net inflows were above expectations but rather in line for retail investors. The revision to the consensus will be therefore limited (we will revise upwards our EPS for FY2021).
Amundi released this morning its numbers for Q1 21. Net income was sharply above expectations (+17%) but this was mostly driven by performance fees. Underlying numbers were also better than expected. Net inflows were negative and below expectations but only driven by much lower cash products (institutional investors). At the same time, retail flows were comfortably above expectations and ours. We will revise upwards our expectations following this release (and consensus will probably do so as
Amundi announced this morning that it has entered into exlcusive negotiations with Société Générale for the acquisition of Lyxor for a total cash consideration of €825m (€755m excluding excess capital). The price is above the €600m previously mentioned but is still reasonable given the synergies Amundi plans to implement. The operation will be earnings accretive considering the run-rate cost synergies (7%). More importantly, Amundi’s ETF franchise will be second in Europe. We view this deal as
Amundi released this morning its numbers for Q4 20 and FY2020. Net profit was above expectations, mainly driven by a higher level of performance fees at the revenue level. Net inflows were above expectations for both retail and corporate/institutional investors. The share price has experienced weakness recently and the payment of a dividend (above the ECB recommendation) and the appointment of a new CEO alleviating any governance issues should reverse the negative momentum.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Amundi. We currently have 116 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
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Equity Development
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