Research that is free to access for all investors. Companies commission these providers to write research about them.
Brokers who write research on their corporate clients and make it available through our main bundle offering.
Research that is paid for directly by asset managers. Only accessible to institutional investors permissioned for access.
Event in Progress:
Discover the latest content that has just been published on Research Tree
Valeo met the low consensus expectations for its Q3 23 trading update and stuck to its FY23 outlook, whilst implying a strong performance for Q4. The CEO’s confident speech contrasted with the recent share price trend (-46% over the 3M preceding the Q3 results) translating the market’s worries that the weakening demand for BEV could prevent the company from delivering on its targets. The implied strong performance in Q4 and limited visibility on FY24 calls for a prudence which is likely overdone
Companies: Valeo (FR:EPA)Valeo SE (FR:PAR)
AlphaValue
Valeo reported H1 23 results which required perhaps too many adjustments to understand that the underlying drivers remain robust, yet with a cost of debt we had underestimated. The group showed robust H1 23 results at the operating level. The unfavourable timing of cash ins drove a miss on FCF, while the FY23 remained sticky. This does not alter our view, supported by the restoration of shareholder confidence, while accelerating the benefits of the past investments.
Valeo’s Q1 23 trading update was as expected on the figures and guidance (confirmed), albeit with a reminder that the bulk of the performance is planned for H2. Amidst a pool of investors worried by the likelihood of a price-war-driven plunge in demand for new cars and caution about the Chinese recovery, Valeo offered only a limited amount of new news. However, some worthwhile comments were shared on the success of PTS’s high-voltage powertrain and the expanding business with Chinese OEMS.
Kudos to Valeo’s forecasting skills as the company delivered on its FY22 guidance, which had been set the day after the beginning of the war in Ukraine. The FY22 figures were close to expectations with revenues topping, and the margin bottoming their respective guided range. The Q4 22 was much stronger than expected, helped by easing supply chain bottlenecks. However, the FY23 FCF outlook disappointed at “<320m” vs. the €440m expected by the consensus, which we see as an all-weather guidance wit
Valeo’s Q1 22 sales topped analysts’ forecasts by c.5% on the back of strong volume outperformance in every region, Aftermarket sales maintained their momentum and there was a booster FX impact. For those who had expected increased headwinds from the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China, Valeo answered with a noticeable guidance confirmation from sales to FCF. LVP updated forecast remains within the range used to set the initial outlook. We expect volumes in China to be decisive.
FY22 guidance was weaker than expected on the profitability and FCF front, as cost inflation and a late reversion of overstocks should weigh. THe mid-term plan confirmed that the targets set in 2019 will not be reachable even with a 5-year delay. With a plan relying on organic top-line growth, any success is highly dependent on global auto production targets. Bad news given the pending risks from the current geopolitical tensions.
Valeo released preliminary results which matched the upper end of the sales and margin guidance (CEO’s base case scenario). However, FCF generation took a strong hit (30% below consensus) due to overstocking to mitigate the supply-chain bottlenecks. With OEMs needing to rebuild their own inventories when tight supply eases, a saloon door effect is likely on suppliers’ FY22 FCF. We stick to our positive view on the stock seeing a good entry point, ahead of the CMD.
Valeo’s sales showed more resilience than expected in Q3 on the back of a growing aftermarket business but also a temporary pricing power at a level rarely seen in its history. FY21 guidance was cut by 5.5% in sales and implied EBITDA. Expectations for FCF were kept unchanged with a negative, as lower capex is likely to compensate for the rising WCR induced by spiking inventories. The risk of a postponement of the breakeven of Valeo-Siemens is reinforcing.
Valeo topped consensus on margins after a well-managed H1 21, disrupted by the chip shortage. Lower R&D and capex were the first glimpse of return from the 2017-19 investments. The market outlook was downgraded, though FY21 guidance was still confirmed with an upside risk on the EBITDA margin.
Valeo reported solid Q1 21 results, though underperforming auto production due to an unfavourable geographical mix. Based on 2019, lfl sales are almost at equilibrium. Rising input and logistic costs should be, at least partly, passed-on to OEMs. FY21 guidance was kept unchanged to account for the uncertainties remaining as of now.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Valeo. We currently have 47 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
Surface Transforms (SCE) has announced the raising of £6.5m new equity and is launching an Open Offer to shareholders. It is raising capacity and quarterly revenue but has needed to address the two sets of production constraints it faced: scrappage and process-line pinch points. Pinch points have been much reduced through capital expenditure and expert maintenance teams. Major capital expenditure is ongoing and unaffected by the fund raise. The scrappage from the fast ramping up of volumes is re
Companies: Surface Transforms PLC
Hardman & Co
Please find below our weekly update covering themes that we feel that are of interest to investors and participants in the small and mid-cap TMT sector as well as commentary on recent newsflow.
Companies: CSFS MBT PPS MIRI
Allenby Capital
Surface Transforms has announced a Placing and Subscription seeking £6.5m at 1p, combined with an Open Offer for up to £2m (before expenses). Proceeds will be used for working capital for existing operations and to support the manufacturing scale-up. We introduce summary estimates pending the outcome of the entire fundraising event (including the Open Offer) and the full outturn statement for 2023a due in late May. Our base case assumption is for revenue of £17.5m in 2024e (2023a: £8.3m); this c
Zeus Capital
Companies: CPX PHC PIER
Cavendish
Companies: 88E MTC TIA DEC ULTP
IG Design Group’s trading update for the year ended 31 March 2024 has exceeded market expectations in terms of both profitability and, most significantly, cash generation. The FY24 results confirm the progress the group has made on its strategic journey to simplify the business and improve operational efficiency. Notwithstanding ongoing uncertainty on the economic backdrop and consumer expenditure, the group remains confident of delivering its target of returning to its pre-Covid adjusted operat
Companies: IG Design Group plc
Progressive Equity Research
Canaccord Genuity
Revelation Biosciences is a life sciences company whose development of immunologic-based therapies is based on the well-established biology of phosphorylated hexaacyl disaccharide (PHAD) and its effect on the innate immune system. The company announced 1Q2024 results and we remind investors that the company has begun Phase I trials on its Gemini project and has funding needs met through 2024, which is extremely positive for a clinical stage company.
Companies: Revolution Beauty Group plc (REVB:LON)Revelation Biosciences, Inc. (REVB:NAS)
Zacks Small Cap Research
Companies: GHH PHC GETB DEC LORD GELN
FY24 performance reflects decisive action in a challenging market: Gross merchandise value (GMV) of £1,809m is down 13% YOY, driven by lower sales in brands, partly offset by growth in the Debenhams marketplace.
Companies: boohoo group Plc
Character Group traded satisfactorily in the first half, even though pressure on consumer expenditure continued to create challenging trading conditions. The Group was able to deliver a robust performance while enjoying a solid balance sheet and strong cash generation. Given the encouraging first half performance and the Group’s continued resilience, the Board expects that adjusted PBT will exceed market expectations. Consequently, we have increased our PBT forecast by 10% and continue to view t
Companies: Character Group plc
Companies: UTL ASC DNLM BWNG MONY DFS BOO
Shore Capital
Ceres Power Holdings’ innovative technology uses electrolysis to produce green hydrogen and solid oxide fuel cells to generate power. In a year where it moved to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, it recorded revenue growth of 13% and gross margin expansion to 61% (the highest in the sector, according to management), but is yet to record an operating profit (FY23 operating loss of £59.4m versus £54.0m in FY22). Ceres continued its strategy to drive innovation and technology across sol
Companies: Ceres Power Holdings plc
Edison
We note the regulatory announcement this morning from Surface Transforms and withdraw our estimates and valuation, pending conversations with management.
SCE has announced its intention to raise £6.5m via an institutional placing, with an open offer pending, to assist the scale-up and to fund near-term working capital requirements. We reduce our forecasts to factor in base case assumptions and greater prudence to expectations. Our FY24E adj pre-tax loss rises by £3.9m to a loss of £6.9m, increasing LPS from -0.6p to -0.9p. The placing should provide sufficient cash runway and some headroom through to EBITDA profitability, anticipated throughout F
Share: