Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Neovacs. We currently have 6 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Neovacs (ALNEV). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.
Neovacs is running a Phase IIb trial on its lead immunotherapy project, IFN-Kinoid (IFN-K) for lupus. The US arm is now recruiting and is expanding from five to 15 centres due to strong interest. We now expect results from end 2017, formerly mid-2017. In Korea, CKD may start sales in 2018, but the main impact is likely to be in 2019. Partnering for other territories is now expected from mid-2018. The important VEGF-Kinoid for cancer and AMD might start Phase I in H117. Cash at the end of June 2016 was €9.2m.
Neovacs’s lead project, IFN-Kinoid (IFN-K) for lupus, started a 178-patient EU, US and RoW Phase II in Q315. It expects data by mid-2017. This is based on clinical response and measurement of the interferon signature (IS), a diagnostic marker of lupus. CKD, a leading Korean pharmaceutical company, partnered the product for Korea in 2015; marketing may start in 2018. Neovacs plans to partner IFN-K, implying possible launches in 2021. VEGF-Kinoid for cancer and AMD could start Phase I in H117 and a type 1 diabetes kinoid is in preclinical testing. Cash in December 2015 was €6.1m; a French rights issue in June 2016 raised €8m gross at €0.85/share.
OPINION CHANGE CHANGE IN OPINIONBuy vs Reduce CHANGE IN EPS2015 : € -0.13 vs -0.13 2016 : € -0.25 vs -0.27 ns Due to the new funding from Bpi France (€5m), we have decreased the financial expenses, leading to a slight increase in EPS 2016. CHANGE IN NAV€ 1.87 vs 1.34 +39.8% We have revised up the valuation for IFN Kinoide after the partnership signed in late 2015, with a positive impact from 2016. This partnership strengthens the likelihood of success in Lupus and dermatomyositis, even if the results of the phase IIb is expected in late H1 17.
H1 operating losses increased by €1.1m to € -5.6m before research tax credits (+€1m). The net loss amounted to €4.9m (vs €3.9m). The clinical development plan is progressing according to expectations and could be expanded from 2016.
Neovacs has announced a €7.5m capital increase with three US institutional investors specialised in biotech investments. This capital increase will be carried out without preferential subscription rights. Neovacs will issue a total of 7.5m securities (30.5% of the shares of the company to date) at a price of one euro. Each security is composed of one ordinary share and one warrant. The warrant will be immediately detached from the share and will give the right to subscribe to 0.37732 of an ordinary share (at €1.25 per share) within 5 years. This represents a potential dilution of 10.33% and a potential increase in capital of €3.5m. The settlement of the new shares should take place no later than 3 July 2015.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Neovacs. We currently have 6 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
Keystone Law Group— full service law firm with over 250 self-employed lawyers . Due late Nov. Offer TBA | Beeks Financial Cloud -niche cloud computing and connectivity provider for automated (algorithmic) trading in Forex and Futures financial products . Raising £7m. Mkt Cap c.£24.5m. Due 27 Nov. FYJun17 rev £4m. Profitable at operating level | City Pub Group - owner and operator of an estate of 34 premium pubs across Southern England. £30m raise. Consistent track record of strong revenue and EBITDA growth, with a three year CAGR from FY14 to FY16 of 34.9% and 44.8% respectively, and an EBITDA margin of 14.7% in FY16. Due late Nov. Offer TBA | Boku - Independent direct carrier billing company. Revenues were up 21% to US$10.2 in HYJun17. Q32017, revenues grew to $6.5m, up by 44%. The Company also saw continued growth across all of its key metrics: user numbers, total payment and a positive adjusted EBITDA for the month of September 2017. Due 20 Nov. Offer raising £45m at 59p with mkt cap of £125.9m | Ten Lifestyle Hldgs. Technology-enabled lifestyle and travel platform providing trusted concierge services to the world's wealthy. Net revenue increased from £20m in the year ended 31 August 2015 to £33m in the year ended 31 August 2017, a compound annual growth rate of 29%. Offer TBA, expected 27 Nov 2017 | OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m | OG Graphite, brownfield development-stage graphite company focused on the reactivation of its wholly-owned Kearney natural flake graphite mine and mill located 280 km north of Toronto, Canada. Offer TBA, expected mid November |
Companies: FRR AST ABDP BZT AVCT MTFB WEY FFI SAV
Clipper Logistics (CLG LN) In line H1 update; Introducing FY’20 forecasts | Fenner (FENR LN) Upgrades, with more to come | Genus (GNS LN) Trading in line with expectations | Harwood Wealth (HW LN) Ahead of expectations, upgrading forecasts | Xaar (XAR LN) Further operational developments
Companies: FENR GNS XAR CLG HW/
Iofina* (IOF): Operational and market update (CORP) | President Energy* (PPC): Puesto Flores work programme commences (CORP) | Victoria (VCP): Acquisition and placing (U/R) | MotifBio (MOTB): Sensible signing of $20m debt facility (BUY)
Companies: IOF PPC MTFB VCP
Tuzistra XR prescriptions (Rx) grew threefold to ~35k in FY16/17 (2nd year on the market) vs ~12k in FY15/16. Investment into addressing the barriers to higher Tuzistra XR prescribing is translating into higher Rx rates, although this has not been matched by revenue growth due to higher inventory stocking in the same period last year. In H217 FDA issued partner Tris with two complete response letters to Vernalis’s CCP-07 and CCP-08 NDAs and we now model launch during the 2018/19 cough cold season. Our updated forecasts reflect this and lower Tuzistra XR revenues due to a slower than anticipated sales trajectory in the near term.
Alpha Financial Markets Consulting— Global provider of specialist consultancy services to the asset and wealth management industry. Due Oct. Revenue of £6.7 million for the year ended 31 March 2011 to £43.6 million for the year ended 31 March 2017. Offer TBA. Due 11 Oct. Cora Gold— West African focused gold exploration business, significantly enlarged by the amalgamation of the gold exploration assets in Mali and Senegal of Hummingbird Resources and Cora Gold's former parent, Kola Gold. Due 9 Oct. Offer TBA Springfield Properties—Scottish housebuilder. “Our turnover exceeded £100 million for the first time this year and now we employ around 500 people. This IPO is the next step in our growth.” Expected Mid October. Offer TBA. OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m. SolGold—Publication of prospectus regarding transfer from AIM. Due 6 Oct Glenveagh Properties— Dual Dublin and London IPO. Irish homebuilder with a principal focus on the Greater Dublin Area. The Group will combine an attractive land bank with a Gross Development Value of c.€1.1 billion. Seeking to raise gross proceeds of up to €550 million. Due 10 Oct People’s Investment Trust—Objective of sustainable wealth creation. Also to list on the Social Stock Exchange. Targeting £125m raise on 17 Oct. No performance fees or executive bonuses in order to focus on long term rather than short term performance. ContourGlobal LP—Report on Bloomberg that the thermal energy power generator is considering a London listing.
Companies: SBTX SRON NSCI MTFB NBB MERC AGL
Belluscura— Provider of premium medical devices at value prices to address part of the global unmet need for affordable, premium quality medical devices. Raising £7.5m to £10m. Offer TBA. Due early Dec Miriad Advertising—Global video advertising company incorporated in 2015 and is engaged in the development of native invideo advertising . 2016 rev £0.7m and £7.3m operating loss. Offer TBA Keystone Law Group— full service law firm with over 250 self-employed lawyers . Due 27 Nov. Raising £10m at 160p. Mkt Cap £50m. Revenue of £25.6 million and EBITDA of £2.1 million. In FYJan17. Beeks Financial Cloud -niche cloud computing and connectivity provider for automated (algorithmic) trading in Forex and Futures financial products . Raising £7m. Mkt Cap c.£24.5m. Due 27 Nov. FYJun17 rev £4m. Profitable at operating level. City Pub Group - owner and operator of an estate of 34 premium pubs across Southern England. £30m raise. Consistent track record of strong revenue and EBITDA growth, with a three year CAGR from FY14 to FY16 of 34.9% and 44.8% respectively, and an EBITDA margin of 14.7% in FY16. Due late Nov. Offer raising £46.6m at 170p with market cap £96m. Ten Lifestyle Hldgs. Technology-enabled lifestyle and travel platform providing trusted concierge services to the world's wealthy. Net revenue increased from £20m in the year ended 31 August 2015 to £33m in the year ended 31 August 2017, a compound annual growth rate of 29%. Offer TBA, expected 27 Nov 2017. OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m. OG Graphite, brownfield development-stage graphite company focused on the reactivation of its wholly-owned Kearney natural flake graphite mine and mill located 280 km north of Toronto, Canada. Offer TBA, expected mid November.
Companies: NMRP STR IKA BMN AERO GYG MPM NSCI KETL
BILBY (BILB.L) | PREMIER AFRICAN MINERALS (PREM.L) | GENEDRIVE (GDR.L)
Companies: BILB PREM EHP
Full-year adjusted EPS was 7% above our expectations, driven by higher revenues, gross margins and a lower tax charge. FY 2018 is a year of transition; the need to replace revenues from the loss of its second-largest licence income stream (c.£1.0m) with existing product growth and the introduction of troponin by Siemens. We reintroduce a target price of 2,600p implying 2018 P/E of 30x falling to 26x for 2019. Despite an 11% decline in EPS in FY 2018 as it transitions the licence loss, the shares should be underpinned by free cash flow (+11%), which supports a 3.5% yield, 3.4% free cash flow yield, 46% free cash flow/capital employed and 56% ROCE. Bioventix remains a top quartile investment in the finnCap Slide Rule.
In the November edition of the Hardman Monthly Newsletter, Nigel Hawkins assesses the achievements of AIM – and how it has thrived, despite a challenging financial environment, in recent years.
Companies: SPH AVO SCLP VAL AGY CLIG TRX AVCT APH CMH MCL MUR
Springfield Properties—Scottish housebuilder. Intention to float. Offer TBA “Our turnover exceeded £100 million for the first time this year and now we employ around 500 people. This IPO is the next step in our growth.” | Warehouse REIT - The Company will invest in a diversified portfolio of UK warehouse assets located in urban areas. The Company is targeting a dividend yield of 5.5p equivalent to a yield of 5.5 percent. for the year ending 31 March 2019. Issue price 100p. Offer TBA. Due 20 Sep | OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c. £50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m. | People’s Investment Trust—Objective of sustainable wealth creation. Also to list on the Social Stock Exchange. Targeting £125m raise on 17 Oct. No performance fees or executive bonuses in order to focus on long term rather than short term performance. | Charter Court Financial Services Group—Intention to float. Specialist lender serving the UK residential mortgage market. The net mortgage loan book stood at £4.4 billion as at 30 June 2017 growing at a compound annual growth rate of 92 percent since 31 December 2014. Part vendor sale and £20m primary raise. | ContourGlobal LP—Report on Bloomberg that the thermal energy power generator is considering a London listing. | Hipgnosis Songs Fund investment Company offering pure-play exposure to Songs and associated musical intellectual property rights. Offer raising £200m at 100p. The Company has decided to extend the closing date for the Placing, Offer for Subscription and Intermediaries Offer to 1 August 2017. The Company may bring forward this closing date at any time. Admission 15 September 2017
Companies: PHSC AGY EHP RST LWRF NSCI GHE AGL K3C PROX
Qiagen’s Q3 17 results came in line with consensus expectations as well as the company’s own guidance (both sales and profitability). Adjusted net sales expanded 7% on a CER basis (in line with guidance, 8% reported) to $364.4m, including 6ppt organic growth and an additional 1ppt from the acquisition of OmicSoft (in January 2017). The currency impact was neutral following the recent depreciation of the US$. Consumables (88% of revenue) growth continued to be strong (+8% CER, +8% in Q2 17), offsetting the protracted softness in instrument sales (+2% CER, +4% in Q2 17). At the segment level, Molecular Diagnostics registered an improving momentum (+9% at CER vs. +6% and +3% in Q2 and Q1 17, respectively), driven by the Quantiferon franchise (+25% at CER) as well as the uptick in companion diagnostics (no HPV headwinds during the quarter, -1% in 9M 17). Applied testing remained strong (+15% vs. 12% and 21% in Q2 and Q1 17, respectively) driven by gains in the forensics portfolio, while Pharma (+5%, +8% in Q2 17) and Academia (+2%, +4% in Q1 17) slowed down sequentially. Adjusted operating profit grew 9% to $97.9m (margin increased 1ppt yoy to 27%, benefiting from enhanced operating leverage and efficiency improvements) while adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.32 at CER (lower end of the $0.32-0.33 guidance range). Geographically, EMEA took up the baton of being the key growth contributor (+15% CER, +7% in H1 17) driven by double-digit growth in France, Turkey and the Netherlands and strong support from the UK and Germany. Momentum in Asia-Pacific decelerated sequentially (+7% at CER, +11% in H1 17) due to a single-digit decline in the Japanese market. Despite no headwinds from the US HPV business, growth in the Americas region slowed down (+3% at CER, +5% in H1 17), due to a tender expiry in Mexico. In an interesting development, management announced that it would be discontinuing its non-core PCR diagnostic tests and divesting the distribution of its HPV franchise in China (second largest HPV market for Qiagen, after the US) to focus on the high growth areas of Quantiferon and NGS (the company recently formed a joint venture with Chinese company Maccura to market the GeneReader NGS system). The move is expected to create a 1-2% headwind to the top-line for FY 17. Adjusted for the Chinese portfolio changes, management has maintained its FY 17 sales guidance (7% CER growth: 5-6% organic, -1% US HPV, +1-2% from acquisitions) as well as its adjusted diluted EPS expectations ($1.25-1.27 at CER). Forex is guided to have a negative impact of 1ppt on sales and $0.01 on EPS. For Q4 17 (CER basis), management guides for a 5-6% sales expansion (4-5% organic, -2% US HPV, +1 from the OmicSoft acquisition) and adjusted diluted EPS to range $0.41-0.42 (before restructuring charges). Following the recent depreciation of the US$, currency is expected to benefit Q4 sales by 2ppt, with a neutral impact on earnings. EPS expectations exclude the impact from the ongoing restructuring activities ($0.07 and $0.01 headwind in FY 17 and Q4 17, respectively). In other news, Qiagen completed its $300m capital repurchase ahead of plan, concluding the remaining $60m buy-back in Q3 17.
Companies: QIAGEN N V
GSK has received the FDA approval for its HIV two-drug combo in a single tablet called Juluca. It is a fixed-dose tablet containing two previously approved (active ingredients) drugs, dolutegravir from GSK and rilpivirine from J&J, and will be given to patients who have been on an anti-retroviral therapy for at least six months.
Dechra’s AGM update confirms all is in line with growth across all business areas. It is still early in the year, but this is reassuring nonetheless. We have been a bit overly cautious with our estimates and are upgrading our EPS forecasts by ~7-8%, bringing us more in line with consensus. The shares now trading on a Cal'17 P/E of 30x, EV/EBITDA of 20x, falling to 27x/17.5x in Cal’18. The FCF Yield is still 4% however so whilst the shares are certainly not cheap, the valuation is not completely out there. Dechra remains a core mid cap holding, but we move to Hold on valuation grounds.
Companies: Dechra Pharmaceuticals
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) reported Q3-17 Core earnings some 3% above consensus estimates back on 25 October-17, and reiterated its guidance for 3- 5% EPS growth at constant exchange rates (CER) for FY-17. That said, two other factors spooked the stock market; firstly, higher SG&A spend for the coming two years will probably lead to flat earnings growth out to 2020 and secondly, GSK has openly stated that it is interested in purchasing Pfizer’s Consumer division (which could cost cUS$ 13bn). As a result it may revise its dividend policy i.e. cut the dividend in future years to fund such an acquisition. Unquestionably this is a risk, but today’s share price is partially factoring this in. We downgrade our recommendation to Long term Buy (Buy) and reduce our target price to 1450p (1800p) given the dividend risk, but GSK remains a very strong business which investors should keep in mind.
CO.DON is a leading manufacturer of autologous cell therapies for the treatment of cartilage defects. The company’s main product, Spherox, is based on the core spheroid technology and can repair cartilage defects of the knee of up to 10cm2 in a minimally invasive procedure. The Phase III clinical trial allowed CO.DON to obtain marketing authorisation from the European Medicine Agency (EMA) in July 2017, which opened access to all European markets. The company is preparing for the roll-out of Spherox and has already received a green light from the UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE).
Companies: Co Don