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NAV discount in line with Prosus
Post spin-off Vivendi has materially changed
Post the December spin-off of Canal+, Havas and Louis Hachette, Vivendi structure has changed significantly. Vivendi consists of Gameloft as well as minority stakes in several listed entities. We adjust our numbers on the back of FY24 results and adjust our TP to reflect the latest share price movements. The change in our EPS reflects the change in the group structure since spin-off.
FY24 results not a share price drivers
Vivendi reported revenues of EUR297m down 5% yoy. Its EBITA improved from a loss of EUR33M to a loss of EUR1m. Given the accounting around the spin-off, attributable earnings came in at a loss of EUR6bn. But given that Gameloft accounts for only c5% of Vivendi''s estimated enterprise value, full year results (and operating trends) are not likely to be the key driver of the shares.
Management confirms interest in consolidating the video games industry
During the earnings call, management denied press reports suggesting it was interested in selling out of Gameloft but rather suggested it was interested in taking an active role in the video games industry consolidation.
NAV of EUR4.7. Stock trading in line with the Prosus discount
Looking at current share prices and applying the average of Ubisoft and Embracer multiples to value Gamleloft we estimate Vivendi NAV per share at EUR4.7. We set our TP at EUR2.9 including a conglomerate discount of 38%. We note that Prosus currently trades on a conglomerate discount of 38%. Prosus discount has averaged 32% in the last two years as well as since its 2019 listing. Our TP implies only 4% upside and has us argued that Vivendi is fairly valued with discount consistent with Prosus. With limited upside our TP we remain Neutral.