Q3 23 trading statement: a slight surprise in terms of weakening comparable growth.

The group’s comparable growth slowed compared to the previous quarters on the back of the weaker Larger Industries and Electronics. Our numbers now look a tad optimistic for the full year and we will most likely revise them down, with a small impact on the valuation. We feel comfortable with our recommendation and target price at this stage.

Q223: in line but the slowdown in top-line growth needs to be be monitored.

As expected Air Liquide released a very decent set of results for Q123. The slowdown in growth in Q2 is not alarming given its magnitude and the comparison basis. It will still have to be monitored in the light of slower global GDP growth. Little change to our numbers much after this release.

Q1 23 trading statement: decent growth.

The group issued decent (top-line) numbers for Q1 23 with comparable growth at +6.2%. This was supported by all segments apart from Large Industries which is still under pressure (albeit improving). The investment backlog is stable and should free up growth in the quarters to come. No big change to be expected in our numbers, which may still go a bit higher in terms of FY23 revenues.

A very decent FY22…and no big commitments going forward

The group posted in line results for FY22. There was some slight weakness in the Q4 at the top-line level however. The progressive recovery of Large Industries should support the FY23 results. The group issued the “same old outlook”. We will not change our numbers materially after this release.

A solid Q3 22

The group’s comparable growth accelerated in Q3. This was largely attributable to Industrial Merchant and Electronics. The group looks set to reach its target for the full year.

A rather smooth Q2 22

Air Liquide posted a decent set of numbers for Q2 22 Margins excluding the impact of energy prices held up well The group seems on track to reach its yearly targets Obviously, (gas) disruptions could change the situation

A very decent start to FY22

The Q1 22 revenues came in above market expectations. This mainly stemmed from America and Industrial Merchant, even if all segments did pretty well. The impact of Ukraine and a potential slowdown in world economies is not yet being felt. We will marginally upgrade our forecasts.

No major surprises at the group’s CMD

Air Liquide set decent targets for FY25 at its capital markets day They include an improvement in top-line growth, margins and ROCE The group also emphasised what it considers it key markets going forward It also focused on its main ESG taregts

Sound results (as usual) and a rather vague outlook (as usual too!)

FY21 results are in line with both consensus and our numbers (even slightly higher). By segment, the group’s top line was driven by all segments and geographies after a weaker FY20. The trends in Q4 are very similar to what was witnessed in Q3. The outlook is similar to what it has been “for years”, so no surprise on that front either. Expect only marginal changes to our numbers. Our recommendation will stay the same (Add).

Q3 21: pretty sound

The group’s Q321 trading statement shows a rebound for the industrial activities The momentum in the Electronics and Healthcare businesses remains strong By region, the top line was driven by the Americas and the Middle East We will fine-tune our numbers upwards after this release

No major surprise in the H1 21 numbers

Air Liquide saw a rebound of the industrial activities in Q2, while Electronics and Healthcare remained at a high level Geographically, all regions benefited Efficiencies (understand cost-cutting) reached €206m in the half year (target over €400m for FY21) In this context, the comparable operating margin is up 100bp, a decent number given the top line “Investment opportunities” for the next 12 months amount to €3.1bn We will upgrade a tick forecasts and valuation

Q1 21 revenues: quite decent

Q1 21 revenues came in widely in line with expectations Growth has been pushed by a favourable comparison basis, most of all in Asia The cost-cutting impact was in line with historical performance We will not materially change our numbers after this release

FY20 in line and an expected outlook

FY20 results came out well in line with expectations The rebound witnessed in Q3 was confirmed in Q4 Costs were well under control (partly helped by travel restrictions) The “same old” outlook, which is ok No major changes to be expected in our numbers

Supreme (SUP LN) - Initiation of coverage

FY24 Interim results: A record H1 performance delivered revenue growth of 62.5% to £105.1m (H1 FY23: £64.6m), with growth across all divisions: Batteries +1.4%, Lighting +21.8%, Sports Nutrition & Wellness +17.5%, Vaping +32.5% (ex- ElfBar) and Branded Distribution +798.9%, which includes revenue of £26.4m from the ElfBar distribution opportunity, commenced in June. Adj. EBITDA of £15.2m is +88.0% (H1 FY23: £8.1m) benefitting from higher sales, and operational efficiencies. Adj. PBT of £12.6m is

TClarke - £1.1bn order book and delivery protection measures

TClarke has confirmed it is on track to deliver its three-year growth-plan target of £500m of revenues in 2023E (up from £426m in 2022). It detailed a 99% increase in the order book to £1.1bn alongside a further £1bn in opportunities. Reflecting the current challenges in the construction sector, management has made a number of strategic decisions to preserve the business’s strong market and financial position. These include changing some supply-chain partners mid-contract to protect project comp

Brickability Group - A diversified and resilient model

Today’s interims are in line with the recent trading update (11th October) and as such we make no changes to forecasts. Revenue of £324.8m represents a LFL decline of 14%, with EBITDA of £25.6m (H123: £25.5m). This is a strong performance, against what is a challenging market backdrop and underlines the benefits of its diversified operating model and focused strategy. We therefore continue to be surprised at the weakness of the share price, especially in the context of a broader peer group. Putt

Morning Note – 29 November 2023

Morning Note – 28 November 2023

Supreme Plc+ (SUP, House Stock at 110p) - Exceptional H1 - 'significantly' raised FY24F guidance

Epwin (EPWN LN) - Confirmation of FY23 estimates and buyback announced

Epwin has released a brief trading update confirming that it is on track to meet FY23 estimates. It has also announced its intention to start a buyback, indicating the Board’s confidence in the business going into FY24, despite the volatile operating environment. Zeus leave profit estimates unchanged across the forecast period. This is a continuation of the performance over the last few years, the business has met or beaten consensus numbers since FY20, has not raised equity and managed its bala

Strong H1 results raise full year outlook

The H1 outcome was as indicated in the recent (18 October) Trading Update. Group guidance for the full year is now raised: from revenue of £195m - 205m to £210m - £220m (ED estimate was £204.2m); (adj.) EBITDA from £28m - £30m to £32m - £35m (ED estimate was £29.0m). From incremental EBITDA of c.£4.5m, c.£1.5m arises from core operations and c.£3.5m from the Elf distribution agreement, which supplies retailers including Tesco, Morrisons, One Stop and WHSmith. A series of initiatives – branding

Van Elle Holdings plc (VANL LN) - Trading in line with FY24 expectations, completion of Rock & Alluvium acquisition

Van Elle has released a pre close trading update for HY24 confirming it is trading in line with expectations. Revenue is down 16% yoy to £68.0m which is broadly in line with Zeus expectations for FY24 of 12.1% decline in revenue, pre the addition of Rock & Alluvium. Estimates are updated on the back of the completion of the deal increasing revenue by 6% in the current year to £138m and 11% to £155m in FY25. Zeus leave profit before tax estimates unchanged at £5.0m in FY24 due to integration cost

PROGRESSIVE: Xaar: Market malaise drags into 2024

Xaar has released a trading update for 2023 that includes cautious commentary around 2024. The group is expecting a strong end to the year in terms of profitability, albeit with depressed revenue levels. Sales pressures are expected to continue in 2024 and, combined with downward pressure on prices and cost inflation, are likely to lead to a materially reduced level of profitability. We alter our estimates for both years to reflect the update. Although the group is clearly navigating tough marke

LIBERUM: Restocking Indicator still says BUY: Equities lift too

UK-Listed Energy Sector: Review of the UK oil and gas landscape – why the country needs it, current policy and tax

The front of this note takes a look at the UK oil and gas sector, why domestic production is advantageous, what the main political parties think, and what could happen going forward. The latter part contains a review of the companies in our coverage – some that are UK centric, which give exposure to the note’s wider theme, and others that are focused elsewhere.

Treatt - Return to growth in FY23

Treatt’s FY23 results show a significantly improved y-o-y operating performance, delivering revenue and profit growth alongside record cash generation. Sales in H223 were affected by the destocking of inventory from clients, although management notes early signs of this reversing. Particularly strong growth came from Treatt’s new markets segment (Coffee, China and Treattzest), up 61% y-o-y. Record cash generation resulted in net debt more than halving to £10.4m. Management is focusing on volume

Morning Note – 30 November 2023

Making positive progress on all fronts