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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on PERNOD RICARD SA. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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PERNOD RICARD SA
PERNOD RICARD SA
H1 above expectations on rebound in China, Russia and Travel Retail in Americas
09 Feb 17
H1 update: sales were up +4% organically (Q2: +4% vs. cons. 2.4%) 3% restated for the Chinese New Year and +2% on reported figures. Organic profit from recurring operations was up +4% (cons. +3.1%). Operating margin is up +60bp to 29.6%. Organic sales growth by region: Americas +7%, Asia/ROW +3%, Europe +3%. OG by category: Top 14 brands +6% (driven by volumes), Strategic Local brands +1% (impacted by demonetisation in India), Wines +2%. The FY guidance is maintained: organic growth in profit from recurring operations to be between 2% and 4%.
Q1: Good quarter driven by the Americas and an improved China
20 Oct 16
Pernod’s Q1 update: sales grew organically +4% (cons. +2.7%). OG by division: Europe +6% (cons. +2%, +2% restated for technical impact), the Americas +8% (cons. +2.8%), Asia/ROW +0% (cons. +2.5%). On reported figures, sales were up +1% (FX: -3%). OG by category: International brands +3% (vs. 2% last year), Strategic Local brands +5% (in line with last year), Wines -1%. The company highlighted the good performance in the US and India, early signs of improvement in China, and a difficult Africa & Middle East (due to macro and geopolitical situations) and Travel retail in Asia & Europe. The company maintained its FY guidance: 2-4% organic growth in profit from recurring operations.
FY matches consensus; sees better FY16/17 on the back of efficiency initiatives
01 Sep 16
FY update. Sales grew organically +2% (cons. +2.1%, -1% in Q4 on the back of technical adjustments in France and shipment phasing in the US) and +1% on a reported figures. Organic sales growth by region: Americas +4%, Asia/ROW +1%, Europe +1%. OG by category: Top 14 brands +0% (+1% restated for France), Wines +5%, 18 Key Local brands +6% (driven by Indian whiskies) and Others +3%. Profit from recurring operations was up +2% whereas operating margin was flattish (+7bp). The group highlights good growth momentum in the US, double-digit growth in India and the Middle East but difficulties in China (-9%), Korea and Travel retail. The proposed dividend is €1.88 (+4% yoy). For FY17, the company expects organic growth in profit from recurring operations to be between 2% and 4%.
Disappointing Q3 due to a sluggish China
21 Apr 16
PR released its Q3 trading statement. The OG stood at 1% (cons. +1.2%). On a reported basis sales were down 3% (FX: -4%). OG by division: Europe +2% (cons. +1.9%), the Americas +11% (cons. +1.8%), Asia/ROW -5% (cons. +1%). On a ytd basis, the group’s OG in sales stood at 3% and +4% on a reported basis. The group maintains its FY outlook: 1-3% OG in profit from recurring operations.
H1 confirms the trends seen in Q1
11 Feb 16
Pernod Ricard's H1 results: sales grew organically +3% (cons +2.9%). Pricing was up 1%, but the mix was negative. On reported figures, sales were up +7% (FX: +5%). The organic profit from recurring operations stood at 3% (cons +2.3%) and at +2% when adjusted for the earlier Chinese New Year. On reported figures, the operating margin was down by 40bp (to 29.0%) on more intensive A&P spending (+6% for the period). Organic sales growth by region: Americas +4%, Asia/ROW +5%, Europe +1%. OG by category: Top 14 brands +2% (flat volumes, driven by value, +1% pricing), Wines +6%, 18 Key Local brands +6% (driven by strong growth in Indian whiskies) and Others +3%. In Q2, sales grew organically +4% (vs. +3% in Q1) and +6% on reported figures. The net profit from recurring operations was up +9% in H1, and +12% on reported figures. The group confirmed its FY guidance: 1-3% OG in profit from recurring operations.
Q1 update: strong Europe and the US, but China disappoints
22 Oct 15
Pernod Ricard released its Q1 trading statement. The OG stood at +3% (cons. at 1.1%). OG by division: Europe +3% (cons. +0.8%), the Americas +6% (cons +1.5%), Asia/ROW +1% (cons. 2%). OG by category: Top 14 brands +2%, Wines +8% (driven by Australia and UK), 18 Key Local brands +5% (in line with FY trends) and Others +4%. The FX impact was +7%. For the whole period, total sales were up by 9% (€2,223m). For FY 2015/16, the group guides for 1-3% OG in profit from recurring operations.
13 Feb 17
Middlesbrough-based pawnbroker Ramsdens Holdings is set to join AIM on 15 February. Its growth is not coming from its core business but from providing foreign currency, pre-paid travel cards and international payments. The strategy is to increase the group’s online activities and grow the number of branches. In the year to March 2016, group revenues improved from £29.2m to £30m. The accounts of the main subsidiary show that foreign-currency margin rose from £5.36m to £7.59m. This contributes 35% of group gross profit. By contrast, the core business of pawnbroking, precious metal purchases and retail sales fell from £21.3m to £19.8m. Revenues from other financial services were flat at £2.6m. Ramsdens has 127 sites and last year it made an operating profit of £3.19m. In the six months to September 2016, revenues increased from £16.2m to £18.4m and operating profit improved from £2.81m to £3.48m. The placing will raise £15.6m at 86p a share, valuing the company at £26.5m. NorthEdge Capital, which backed a buyout in September 2014, will receive just over £10m from share sales. The NorthEdge stake will fall from 75.6% to 30.7%. The other £5m will go to the company and be used to repay the remaining loan notes and the costs of the flotation. By the end of March 2016, there were still £4m of loan notes outstanding to NorthEdge, with £4.86m paid off during the previous year.
Breakfast in America
24 Feb 17
Peacock Foods should ensure Greencore enjoys organic, profitable convenience food expansion in both the UK and US. The acquisition transforms America, in our view. Moreover, while long term mature market growth remains the salient investment case driver, Peacock’s benefits currently appear unrecognised in Greencore’s share price. BUY.
Joy of Techs
21 Nov 16
ICT evolution is driven by technological development as advances are made which both meet and shape customer requirements. Our 2011 note No such thing as a telco described the modern reality in that former ‘telcos’ now deliver varying elements of a range of managed services. We built on this theme last year, exploring in further detail their evolutionary paths, operating fundamentals, and cashflow yield similarities. In the consumer environment, demand for bundles of technology is complemented by demand for content. Across the pond, the mooted combination of AT&T and Time Warner typifies the bundled need of ‘pipe’ and content, since unbundled alternatives such as FaceTime and WhatsApp can be easier and clearer to chat over, and Amazon and Netflix are easier to watch anywhere. In the UK, BT’s defensive actions cover delivery, content and capabilities, acquiring EE yet also buying football rights. While TV was long ago added to triple play to become quad play, voice is now merely an app, and fixed and mobile seen as just dumb pipes: it's the content that will influence consumer choices. Growth of TV and film as well as music and gaming over IP leads to UK small cap opportunities. In context of the drive to maximise value from pipes and access by offering content and data, we look at some amongst the potential tech small cap beneficiaries: Amino*, Keyword Studios, ZOO Digital*, 7digital*, KCOM* and CityFibre*.
27 Jan 17
We initiate on Hotel Chocolat with a 270p price target and Hold rating. While the investment case is attractive, capturing production efficiencies accounts for half of the 21% PBT CAGR forecast to FY19E. Any slippage in the timing of related capital projects or resulting production disruption could weigh on the stock, which at 37x forward earnings is, in our view, priced for perfection. With the share price up 90% since IPO last year, we suggest investors await a more favourable entry point.
04 Nov 16
Looking at the top 50 non-listed casual dining and bar operators, it appears that the £80bn market for eating and drinking out in the UK is alive and well. The AlixPartners Growth Company Index (October 2016) shows that 2-year profit CAGR has improved over the last few years, and recent surveys from Greene King, Coffer Peach and Deloitte highlight elevated spend on out-of-home occasions. We attribute this to 1) a shift amongst consumers from an ownership to experience-led mentality which has driven habitual spend on leisure 2) an increasing focus on food from historically wet-led operators as they diversify their revenue streams to mitigate competition from the off-trade and match consumer gravitation towards eating out and convenience; 3) increasing regional penetration resulting from oversupply and high rental costs in London and 4) strong sector support from Private Equity investors, attracted to the Leisure sector's cash flow profile which can be leveraged against. Nevertheless, we may look back on 2016 as the peak for casual dining and bar operator profitability, particularly for London-weighted operators who face unfavourable rent and rate costs as well as potential loss of cheap migrant/seasonal labour. Past performance is certainly not a guide to future performance.
FY2017 Trading Update Confirms Better H2
01 Feb 17
A G Barr (BAG LN, HOLD, T/P 600p) reported a full year FY2017 trading statement very much in line with expectations. The company looks for £257m of sales compared with our own estimate of £256m, which was itself in line with consensus (Source: Bloomberg).