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29 Jul 2020
How sustainable is the start to Q3?

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How sustainable is the start to Q3?
Rexel SA (RXL:PAR) | 0 0 (-0.6%) | Mkt Cap: 4,449m
- Published:
29 Jul 2020 -
Author:
James Taylor -
Pages:
8 -
Organic beat, with a strong exit rate... but commentary was a bit more cautious
Organic sales declined by -17.7% in Q2''20 (constant currency and same day count), which was 350bps better than Consensus had expected. Relative to our expectations, Europe came in ahead (down -16.7%) whilst North America was slightly weak (-23%). Growth rates for the first two weeks of July surprised positively, with Rexel noting same-day sales were only down -5.6%. This is much better than the rates of decline some short cycle exposed names have already highlighted. Whilst positive, the past month has been very volatile across most regions, which will likely inject some caution into Consensus'' H2''20e organic sales growth estimates. Management were also understandably cautious when communicating on the growth outlook for the balance of the year given the present level of uncertainty and limited visibility.
The margin was in-line, but how much cost needs to go back into the business?
Rexel''s adj. EBITA margin of 3.3% was 10bps below Consensus expectations. There''s a distinct possibility after the raft of OPEX driven beats we have already seen expectations were higher than consensus reflected running into the print. In its EBITA margin bridge, Rexel indicated a 128bps benefit from actions taken in response to the COVID situation. There will be questions around how much of this will be retained when Furlough schemes are withdrawn (August for Rexel in France, for example). Whilst country mix should no longer present the same headwind in H2, as cost is put back into the business as volumes recover and Rexel re-engages with its digitalisation investment efforts (after some COVID disruption), we are concerned margin development may disappoint relative to expectations.
Reiterate Neutral. Target price of EUR10 is unchanged
We have updated our estimates for recent trading, FX and copper prices. We have raised our organic EU sales growth assumptions, although this...