Returning 40% of CFFO from 2023 on – and there's more to like

TotalEnergies strategy day has reinforced our conviction in its equity story, giving us stronger confidence in the Buy rating. The company will pay around 44% of FY23 CFFO to shareholders and set guidance at 40% from this year onwards. 2-3% annual growth in oil and gas output until 2028 will bring at least $3bn in operating cash flow. Albeit an ambitious ROACE target for integrated power at 12%, the business model will ensure an additional $2bn cash flow by 2028.

Auctus on Friday - 29/09/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; target price of C$0.45 per share: Transactions repriced on more attractive terms – Criterium has renegotiated the terms of the Mont d’Or (MOPL) acquisition. Criterium will now assume only ~US$25.5 mm of debt rather than ~US$37 mm previously. A US$4.8 mm payment to the lenders and the conversion of US$4.9 mm of debt into equity (US$2.5 mm on completion of the acquisition plus US$2.4 mm in 2025) reduce further

Auctus on Friday - 04/08/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.10 per share: Growing production. New Anshof well to be spudded in September - 2Q23 production was 317 boe/d reaching 366 boe/d in June and including ~115 bbl/d at Anshof. Anshof-3 production performance continues to exceed expectations with strong pressure support and deliverability with no water production. Work-over activities at Zistersdorf and Gaiselberg (Vienna basin) in mid-August are ex

Q2: Integrated Power keeps growing, projects at full speed, what about H2?

TotalEnergies was the most active player in Q2 among peers with acquisitions and project announcements across several business segments. This was the benefit of a sturdy balance sheet that allows the company to diversify investments on high-graded projects and keep resilient cash returns. A dividend of €0.74/share and a $2bn share buy-back programme in Q3 was announced on the back of the Q2 results.

Auctus on Friday - 28/07/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: CN-2 flows at up to 1 mbbl/d. Focusing on developping the Ubaque at Carrizales Norte - The Carrizales Norte-2 well (CN-2) encountered 60’ of net pay in the Ubaque formation. The well has been put on production in the Ubaque with initial flow rates of 1,012 barrels of fluid per day. The water cut stabilized at 3% and the oil gravity is 13.6 API. The CN-2 well is currently

Auctus on Friday - 16/06/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; target price of C$0.95 per share: Transformational acquisition in Indonesia – Criterium is delivering on its plans by acquiring Mont D’Or Petroleum with long life and high netback production of 1,050 bbl/d and 4.7 mmbbl 2P reserves across 2 PSCs in Indonesia (Tungkal in South Sumatra and West Salawati in Southwest Papua). With important spare capacity in existing infrastructure and very low drilling costs (U

Auctus on Friday - 09/06/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: No flow from the Gacheta but overall reserves addition from CN-1 larger than initially expected – The Gacheta zones proved unproductive at the CN 1 well location. Management is investigating potential reasons for the lack of productivity and plans to re-evaluate these Gacheta zones in future wells. The Gacheta zones were located above the Ubaque that flowed at rates >1,10

Auctus on Friday - 26/05/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Hartshead Resources (HHR AU)C; target price of A$0.18 per share: On tack for first gas in 2025 – The FDP for Phase I is nearing completion and will be submitted in two weeks. The project continues to be expected to reach first gas in 2025. Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; target price of NOK50 per share: Executing on plans. Declaring a ~US$3 mm quarterly dividend – 1Q23 production of 6,320 bbl/d had already been reported and net debt of US$25

Auctus on Friday - 28/04/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Target price of A$0.100 per share: 1Q23 update – 1Q23 production in Austria was 299 boe/d. The company held A$3.41 mm in cash at the end of March. Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C: On track for near term acquisition – The FY22 financials were in line with our expectations. The company held C$3.7 mm in cash at YE22. Criterium has also filed the notice of intention to file a short form prospectus. This could be an indica

Q1: lower prices take a toll, robust cash return preserves the charm

The much-expected fall across the board due to lower oil and gas prices materialised in Q1. However, the adjusted net income was still strong at $6.54bn, modestly above the consensus. While the operating result from the refining and chemicals was a big miss from the estimates due to lower demand, overall profitability was attractive with a ROACE of 25.4%. Commitment to returning 40% of the operating cash flow boosts the company’s attractiveness.

Auctus on Friday - 14/04/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN)C: Target price of £0.45 per share: Reaching 2,635 bbl/d without Capella. High cash position – The RCE-5 well flowed 680 bbl/d (340 bbl/d net to Arrow) of oil over the last 24 hours. The well is heavily choked (17/168) and is still unloading completion fluid (12% water cut). As witnessed at the other RCE wells, production is expected to increase as the well stabilizes. Initial production at RCE-5 is above expe

Auctus on Friday - 03/03/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN) C; Target price of A$0.50 per share: Good well results in Colombia – The RCE-3 well flowed naturally at rates equivalent to 2,000 bbl/d gross for four hours after unloading kill fluid. Over the last 24 hours, the well has produced at a rate of 968 bbl/d with 0% water cut. This is a very good result and compares with expectations of 600-800 bbl/d. The fact there is no water being produced at that the well i

Q4: profits double, consistency remains guiding principle in strategy

Soaring profits is not the news for TotalEnergies’ Q4 FY22 results; the disappointing part was the lower-than-estimate operating cash flow, falling 68.5% from the previous quarter due to increasing working capital requirements. The quarterly dividend rose by 7% in FY2023, while the buy-back programme will also continue. Special dividends, however, are contingent upon windfall profits. Unlike peers, TotalEnergies reiterated its commitment to the strategy with continued investments in renewables a

CEQ CN, GPRK US, HHR AU, TETY SS, AKERBP NO, APA US, ALV CN, BP LN, CNE CN, DEC LN, DELT LN, DNO NO, EQNR NO, FEC CN, IOG LN, MAHA-A SS, SQZ LN, TTE FP, VAR NO

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN) C; Resources report in Indonesia – The Lengo gas field is estimated to hold 359 bcf (134 bcf net to Criterium). The contingent resources for the Lengo field are contingent on signing a Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) and securing financing and a final investment decision (FID). A Heads of Agreement was signed in August 2022 with a credible gas offtaker and the partners are now progressing to a formal GSA. It is ant

SP Angel Morning Energiser: 03/02/23

Oil steady ahead of EU Russian products ban

Chariot Limited (AIM: CHAR): Imminent partner in Morocco

• The US$2.7 mm cash position at the end of June is in line with our expectations. • Although inflation across the industry and rig availability had complicated and delayed the finalization of a farm-in agreement for Anchois in Morocco, negotiations on partnering are in the final stages. A partner could be announced very soon. • Progress has been made across the portfolio. Onshore Morocco, permitting is under way with drilling now expected to start in early 2024 with up to four wells. Prospects

LIBERUM: Trident Royalties: Benefitting from rising rate environment

LIBERUM: Trident Royalties*: Utah lithium royalty acquisition

Interim Results

Diversified reported strong interim results, with production that was marginally below our estimate more than outweighed by tight cost control to deliver EBITDA ahead of our forecast; we broadly retain our FY23 estimates.

Savannah Energy+ (SAVE, Suspended, Under Review) - Interim results; readmission now expected in Q4

Pantheon Resources - Positive Outlook for Pantheon Resources

We believe that the outlook for Pantheon Resources is significantly improving.

Touchstone Exploration+ (TXP, House Stock at 68p) - Cascadura production update

Central Asia Metals: H1 2023 Interim Results

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) results in H1 2023 follow a record prior comparable period, with the swing between the two primarily due to commodity price performance. H1 2023 net revenue of US$93.6m was down 18% YoY, EBITDA of US$48.9m was down 35% YoY. COGS was up 9.8% YoY given global inflationary pressures. Other charges on the P&L were minimal particularly now CAML is debt free. Owing to the timing of tax charges and some unfavourable working capital movements which we expect to be resolved

Touchstone Exploration+ (TXP, House Stock at 62p) - Cash generation and scale in Trinidad to the fore

Bushveld Minerals: H1 results; progress at Vanchem post period end

Bushveld Minerals (“BMN”) has released its results for H1 2023 having already released production of 1,784t at a weighted average cash cost of US$26.6/kgV, with H1 sales of 2,096tV through destocking during the period. Revenue for the period was US$78.4m, with adj EBITDA of US$10.3m and attributable NPAT of -US$14m. The company finished H1 with US$3.7m of cash and US$90.7m of debt. We expect H2 production of 1,992tV, split between 925tV from Vanchem and 1,067tV from Vametco, bringing full year p

Interim results

Bushveld delivered as robust a financial performance as could reasonably be expected in H1 2023 given the operational challenges faced. We are encouraged by the reported progress made at both Vametco and Vanchem since, and vanadium price aside (current prices are soft, and pose a downside risk if they do not recover in-line with our assumptions) we think Bushveld is broadly on course to meet our full-year estimates. But given its stressed balance sheet, concluding the refinancing of its c.US$45m

Chariot - Anchois Partnering in Final Stages

The partnering process at Anchois is now close to a conclusion, with farm-out negotiations in their final stages. The FEED phase of the Anchois gas development was completed in March, with Chariot continuing to make progress across all the Anchois technical and commercial workstreams. Post period, Chariot added the synergistic, low-cost, low-risk Loukos Onshore licence. Loukos Onshore contains several near-term drilling opportunities, which, if successful could lead to fast-tracked gas productio

Value anomaly despite resilient trading

LIBERUM: Lithium - Rock Developers: EMH, SAV, ALL, PLL & ZNWD are all stand outs, on post-tax bases

CMD - still plenty of growth potential