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Reaching new terms with Ocado
10 Aug 16
Morrisons agrees new terms with Ocado that will enable it to reach customers nationwide. Under the new terms, Morrisons will be released from a profit-sharing agreement (between ¼ and ½) of earnings. Also, it would not share fees for research and development (£4m). The deal states that Morrisons rents 30% of Ocado’s new warehouse. According to management, the new terms would lift the company’s profit by £50-100m per year in the mid-term. Ocado will still be prohibited from serving Tesco, Sainsbury, Asda and the German discounters. Wm Morrison’s share climbed by 1.86% yesterday, boosting its performance over the last week to 6.92%.
Worries about new tax dampened
21 Sep 16
Yesterday, the European Commission announced through a press release that it has opened an in-depth investigation into Poland’s tax on the retail sector. The European Commission has also issued an injunction, requiring Poland to suspend the application of the tax until the Commission has concluded its assessment. It is worth noting that Poland adopted, in July 2016, a new tax to be applied to retail companies operating in Poland. The tax entered into force on 1 September 2016, and no payments are due yet.
Q3 15/16: a bit weakish
02 Aug 16
9m sales reached €44,253m (-1.6%), EBITDA €1,684m (-4.4%), EBIT before special items €992m (-7.9%) and net income €389m (-3%). EBIT was €1,170m and net income €460m which include the disposal of C&C Vietnam, while last year the (released) numbers were hit by a goodwill impairment at REAL, thus published numbers show a marked improvement. Net debt at the end of Q3 stood at €3,061m (down €2,069m after the Galeria Kaufhof and C&C Vietnam disposals).
Upside Potential Outweighs Downside Risk
29 Mar 17
After Tesco PLC (TSCO.L) announced on 27 January that it proposed to merge with Booker Group, all has gone quiet and Tesco’s share price has dropped back sharply. Despite quoted annual deal synergies of £200m per annum in the third year post completion of the deal, some of Tesco’s major shareholders believe that the deal premium is too rich and that Tesco is buying Booker on ‘peak’ margins. This could well be true. Looking at stand alone Tesco, its valuation now looks attractive at 7.4x FY-18E EV/EBITDA given the improving cash flow profile, so if the deal is blocked entirely, the stock should rally. If the deal is adjusted, the terms are likely to be better for Tesco we believe. Overall the upside potential outweighs downside risk for the share price. We upgrade our recommendation to Buy.