Event in Progress:
Discover the latest content that has just been published on Research Tree
The H1 results were solid, exceeding consensus expectations, but they were not so exceptionally outstanding to surprise the market positively (as Unilever did yesterday). The results were mainly driven by price/mix dynamics. However, the progress made towards the “Renew Danone” strategy and another successful quarter of delivery instill confidence and trust in the company.
Companies: Danone (BN:EPA)Danone SA (BN:PAR)
A positive volume/mix (despite accelerated pricing) and an upgrade to the FY23 sales outlook confirmed that consumer demand has so far remained resilient. Given the significant discount to Nestle (16.3x FY23 P/E vs. 24.0x) and the positive momentum, the stock is becoming increasingly attractive.
A satisfactory year. Q4 volumes were inevitably light, but nothing worrying in the current environment. The FY23 guidance is in line with the consensus. Nothing very glorious, but enough to be happy about on a Danone scale.
A copy/paste of what we had previously seen from other consumer staples companies: a beat on price, lower-than-expected volume elasticity and a revenue guidance upgrade maintaining the margin target unchanged.
The trend for consumer companies finally looks good so far. Danone beat expectations from the top to the bottom-line with reassuring volume metrics. FY sales guidance upgraded, and EBIT guidance reiterated.
Danone shares are flying (+8% at mid day), well beyond what might have been expected following the sound/reassuring Q1 numbers. The main reason is Lactalis.
The Q1 sales beat, with growth across all segments and geographies, secures the FY22 guidance for now. Normalization of the figures expected looking forward.
Reinvestment has been the watchword of the CMD. While it could be the key for fundamental changes, this adds more pressure on margins in the current inflationary context. FY22 will therefore be challenging, but, looking forward, Antoine de Saint Affrique was able to convince us in part that things could move in the right direction. The mid-term guidance is not fantastic either, but given Danone’s historical tendency to lower its targets as time goes on, this caution is probably better.
The reiteration of the FY21 margin guidance is reassuring and proves that Danone is dealing with cost inflation (roughly) as well as its peers. Apart from this, we don’t see other major catalysts before Saint-Affrique’s announcements expected during the CMD in March 2022.
A mix of good operational and governance news, which is very welcome after Danone’s underperformance. However, we remain cautious on margin development given the weaknesses announced by peers.
No major surprise in the Q1 results, nor stunning news about a new CEO/strategy. The group, currently on a “break”, is attempting first to recover from the pandemic gradually and the guidance suggests that this will be the case.
Danone finally bows to investor pressure to split the Chairman and CEO roles. This is a good start, but we hope that the group will accompany this decision with strategic choices to relaunch growth.
The FY20 figures were roughly in line with the expectations. The FY21 outlook seems quite conservative, but positive comments about the potential split of Faber’s roles, divestments or buy-backs were welcomed. More information to come at the next CME on 25 March.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Danone.
We currently have 31 research reports from 3
Companies: Anpario plc
The earliest dated brand has long been contested; the majority point to Kongō Gumi, a family run construction company that specialised in Buddhist temples in Japan; its documented record of ownership goes back to 578 AD. Like Kongō Gumi, several different brands have withstood the test of time, albeit without then same degree of longevity. The term brand originates from the 1500s and means "to burn" in Ancient Norse and was initially used to mark cattle for ownership. This practice can be consid
Companies: DISP GAW SOS HOTC COOK SVEN
Companies: OHT ELCO SMS HVO FRP
Companies: Hilton Food Group plc
Companies: Celadon Pharmaceuticals PLC
26th June 2023
Status of this Note and Disclaimer
This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objecti
Companies: DWHT SAR ORCP CBOX ZPHR CPP SYS CREO RRRP3
20th September 2023
Status of this Note and Disclaimer
This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment ob
Companies: TXG TGIF TXG IQG ASTO TND TAVI WSBN UFO LBG
Companies: Cake Box Holdings Plc
Companies: Genus plc
Chapel Down share price in recent weeks has retreated to a 22% discount to our adj. NAV of 38p. This is overdone and offers an attractive entry point on deep value and structural growth considerations. Recent Nielsen off-trade data for English sparkling wine remains highly positive, with April numbers in particular stellar (boosted by the King’s coronation). The growing season is anticipated to have got off to a good start as has the brand relaunch over Q2. While we make no forecast changes, our
Companies: Chapel Down Group plc
Singer Capital Markets
Chapel Down has released an excellent H1 update, reinforcing the structural attractions of English wine and another period of good execution by the new team. We cite the strong 21% revenue growth, further market share gains, good operational progress and prospects of a strong harvest this year as key highlights. Our confidence in the NAV being an underpinning to the investment case is reinforced by leading brand data. We make no forecast changes but see good scope to upgrade at the Sept interims
Dish of the day
Unicorn Mineral Resources (UMR) has joined the Standard Segment of the Main Market. Unicorn Mineral Resources plc is an Irish exploration company, incorporated on 25 March 2010. Unicorn’s focus is to explore for zinc in Ireland, and the Company has been working on several license blocks since 2010. It has targeted the highly prospective Limerick Basin. Unicorn raised £930k at 10 pence per share.
Leavers: No leavers today.
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?**
Companies: NWT CLCO GUS FRAN HDD ECR PPH MFX
AIM showed no signs of a summer slowdown with three strong months with regards to total funds raised (new and further issues). June, July and August averaged over £700m per month, boosted by a particularly strong June which delivered 14 IPOs (historically AIM has 5-6 new joiners per month). Through the end of August 2018, the total amount raised (new and further issues) of £4.80bn is +15% on the same period in 2017 which itself was the best year since 2007.
Companies: TGL TIG AQX LETS INX TGP RAI CBOX ANX MIND BLOE KGH TWD LOOP DEC OVB YCA SAE