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Alstom released H1 FY23/24 results largely in line with the preliminary update provided a month ago. However, the share price is down by >16% (at the time of writing) as the group is now considering a capital increase (among other options such as asset sales and quasi-equity listings) to improve the balance sheet to maintain an investment grade rating. The outlook for FY23/24 was reiterated. We are likely to maintain our positive stance with our model currently under review.
Companies: Alstom (ALO:EPA)Alstom SA (ALO:PAR)
AlphaValue
Alstom released preliminary H1 FY23/24 figures yesterday which were below the street and our expectations. While sales increased by 6.2% yoy on an organic basis, the order intake declined by c.17% yoy due to a tough comparable base. Notably, the FCF (which has been a pain point since the Bombardier Transportation acquisition in 2021) came in at -€1.15bn vs the -€193m consensus, owing to increased working capital, delay in the Aventra project and lower-than-expected down payments. We will reduce
Alstom reported a weak Q1 FY23/24 trading update, with sales below consensus and our expectations. Moreover, the order intake also decreased by c.30% due to a tough comparable base. The share price reacted negatively (-1.86% at the close). We will revise our sales estimates slightly down but maintain our positive stance on the stock.
Alstom reported a mixed close to FY22/23, with the full year performance largely in line with the guidance but the mid-term targets getting postponed by a year. Citing uncertain macroeconomic environment, the management pushed the FY24/25 sales and profitability targets out to FY25/26. While the consensus was already below the previous guidance, the postponement of the timeline confirms the street’s conservative view on the group’s earnings. No wonder the share price reacted negatively (-2.4% at
Alstom provided a positive Q3 trading update, with sales slightly ahead of consensus and our expectations. Order intake remained robust driven by a strong performance in the Systems and Signalling segments. On the back of the resilient performance, the management reiterated the outlook for FY22/23 and reaffirmed the mid-term targets. We will revise our estimates slightly upwards and retain our positive view on the company.
Alstom reported robust H1 FY22/23 figures, which were ahead of consensus and our expectations. The strong execution of the order backlog, synergies from the Bombardier integration and a favourable sales mix, drove the beat on profitability and FCF. The management also provided additional colour on the FY22/23 guidance for the adjusted EBIT margin and FCF, which were ahead of consensus estimates. Clearly the share price reacted positively (closing at +7.2%). We maintain our positive stance on the
Alstom reported Q1 FY22/23 sales in line with consensus. Order intake decreased 13% yoy due to tough comparables. Management reiterated the outlook for FY22/23, which includes inflation weighing on margins and component shortages delaying deliveries. While the risk was mitigated in Q1, the uncertain macro environment is weighting on consensus estimates. No wonder the share closed c.-3%. We will trim our estimates but are likely to maintain a positive stance on the stock.
While Alstom’s FY21/22 performance was fully in line with the outlook, the low quality beat on FCF overshadowed the decent close. FCF continues to be a pain point for the stock which remained choppy throughout the day – up c.9% in the morning before falling c.11% around mid-session and finally closing at -5% – as investors unpacked the moving parts of working capital. Notably, the mid-term targets were confirmed with synergies being raised from FY25/26 onwards, and the BT backlog delivery timeli
Alstom reported Q3 sales and order numbers in line with our and street estimates. The company reported revenue growth across all product lines and an improved order intake. Management has reiterated the FY21/22 outlook and mid-term guidance. While the share price has remained choppy following this update, we do not see anything alarming in the figures. We reiterate our positive stance on the stock’s valuation.
Alstom’s H1 FY21/22 performance was ahead of market expectations. The c.10% surge in the share price (at the time of writing) was mainly a factor of the strong order intake and better than expected free cash flows, re-affirming our conviction on the structural strength of the business model. Management has reiterated the mid-term guidance for FY24/25, as the BT integration is fully on-track. We maintain a positive stance on the stock’s valuation.
Alstom’s share price jumped c.3% today after the group reported a better-than-expected Q1 FY21/22 trading update, with both order and sales figures coming in ahead of the street’s expectations. After a disappointing CMD earlier this month, the strong performance in terms of commercial wins reinforces our positive stock recommendation. We will tweak our estimates slightly to incorporate the reported figures.
Alstom’s CMD was disappointing with the financial guidance coming in weaker than our estimates, particularly on profitability and FCF generation — attributable to the challenging legacy BT projects. The group expects ‘significant’ FCF outflow in FY21/22 on account of the higher working capital consumption in H1 to deliver these projects. Unsurprisingly, the stock price collapsed c.8% today; with investors’ focus shifting to FCF generation and project stabilisation. We will reduce our estimates b
Alstom reported its FY20/21 results following the integration of BT – with standalone results meeting management guidance and the combined group’s results exceeding street expectations. While reported net debt was much higher-than-expected – with Alstom recognising additional provisions (>€600m) associated with BT contracts, the industry fundamentals remain intact and support the case for long-term profitability/cash flow growth. Importantly, dividends were resumed. Our positive recommendation s
Alstom delivered a positive Q3 FY20/21 update with organic revenue growth and an improved order intake. Management maintained its FY and mid-term outlook, raising the scope for a robust Q4 in terms of order intake. With all necessary regulatory approvals received, the Bombardier Transportation acquisition is expected to be completed by the end of this month.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Alstom. We currently have 35 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
The FY24 year-end update is very upbeat signalling trading being materially ahead of expectations, with a better-than-expected profit out turn and stronger cash generation. It continues to strengthen margins through efficiencies and investment in modern equipment. The order book remains close to record levels providing a robust view of future forecasts. In FY24E we upgrade EPS by 11% and in FY25E a significant upgrade of 27.6%. It looks capable of declaring a dividend in FY25 as well as manageme
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Cavendish
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Another Good Year of Diversified Growth with More to Come in 2024 CCapital have released their Q1 operating results. Overall, revenue has come in slightly lower than expected at $80.2m vs TamE of $85.9m but is largely tracking in line with our FY24 annual estimate and we note the company has maintained guidance. Drilling revenue for this quarter was impacted by a fall in utilisaztion rates as well as general remobilisation geographically but we expect a strong recovery throughout the year as k
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Tamesis Partners
FY23 results show very strong growth over FY22, driven by strong Structural Steel activity, with results slightly ahead of upgraded profit expectations, while stronger than expected cash flow resulted in an unexpectedly generous dividend of 33p (offering a FY23 yield of 7.0%). The group now has net cash of £22.1m and is debt free and is therefore in a strong position for potential M&A activity. Following the recent £90m of new orders to increase the order book to record levels we conservatively
Companies: Billington Holdings Plc
Plant Health Care announced it has signed a distribution agreement with AMVAC, an American Vanguard Company, to support commercialisation of novel fertiliser products incorporating Plant Health Care's Harpinαβ in China starting in 2024. The novel product combines Harpinαβ technology with an AMVAC fertiliser and is expected to help growers improve crop quality and yield as part of an integrated and environmentally responsible crop production programme. AMVAC continues to evaluate Plant Health Car
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discoverIE’s March year-end update confirms a strong operational performance in challenging markets. Following two years when sales increased by +48%, FY 2024 Group sales were +1% ahead of 2023 at CER (reported -3%) driven by a +2% contribution from acquisitions and organic -1%. As expected, organic growth returned in the later part of the year (Q4 +2%, +11% sequentially) and the order book has reverted to normalised levels of c.4.5 months’ sales, which – combined with a continuing strong pipeli
Companies: discoverIE Group PLC
Severfield’s trading update indicates that FY23 results are expected to slightly exceed market expectations and the company ends the year with a record UK and Europe order book. Furthermore, with a positive trading outlook and net debt coming in lower than expected, Severfield has announced a £10m share buyback, highlighting the cash-generative nature of the company and management’s confidence in its position. The stock trades on an FY25 P/E of less than 6x and yields 7%, which we believe appear
Companies: Severfield Plc
Edison
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Canaccord Genuity
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SP Angel
Acquisitions have been an important element of Severfield management’s growth strategy, with the aim of adding new products, sectors and regions to what we have identified as exciting long-term organic opportunities. In this Spotlight report, we focus on the group’s targeted M&A approach, highlighting three significant deals.
Progressive Equity Research
Liberum
Invinity’s update on discussions with strategic investors reveals interest from multiple parties. While this has slightly delayed finalising an agreement it increases the potential for a better outcome. Although details are unknown at this stage, we think there is enough in the statement to be comfortable that any agreements will be consistent with the company’s strategy of growing market share in core markets and using a licencing and royalty model in other markets.
Companies: Invinity Energy Systems PLC
Longspur Clean Energy
Severfield’s full-year results to March will be ‘slightly above’ the Board’s expectations, according to today’s trading update, with net debt significantly better. We maintain our PBT estimates for both forecast years, which are ahead of consensus, but reduce our net debt for FY24E. Record orders were boosted by the steel specialist’s European operations, after last year’s Voortman acquisition, while the Indian JV has seen ‘another step up in profitability’. The group has also launched its first
Companies: ATOME PLC
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