The increase in prices and volumes translates into a sound top-line growth for Q1 21
The group confirms its FY guidance
A solution is still sought for Aubert&Duval
We will upgrade our target price to account better for the momentum in the group’s activities
Companies: Eramet (ERA:EPA)Eramet SA (ERA:PAR)
The Duval family would be willing to see CEO Mrs Bories leave
She would be blamed for the level of debt, the firing of local managers as well as her potential strategy for Aubert&Duval
The French state (a co-shareholder of the group) would disagree and like to see her stay
Uncertainty is certainly not positive for the share price
The FY 20 results were in line with management guidance at the operating level, and above consensus
H2 was much stronger than H1 (EBITDA €278m vs €120m) on the back of higher nickel prices, increase in manganese volumes and nickel ore exports.
The group’s free cash flow was almost at break-even in FY20 (€-36m), which is good news given the level of debt
The outlook for FY21 is very positive thanks to volume expansion and the current commodity prices
Companies: Eramet SA
Q3 revenues were decent except for the ailing Alloys division
The group reinstated guidance that looks a bit more optimistic than our numbers
We will adjust our estimates accordingly
Results in H1 20 were below our expectations
Prices and low demand at Aubert & Duval have weighed more than anticipated
Visibility remains low in the current stormy context
We will revise our numbers and valuation to the downside
Q1 20 sales were down on lower prices (almost) across the board
The group has withdrawn its guidance, which is not a big surprise
Visibility is low and volatility will remain high
We will adjust FY20-21 numbers
The valuation should be seen from an asset perspective
FY19 results in line and much weaker on manganese prices and Aubert&Duval
The Argentine project is on hold (regulatory and local economic conditions)
Prices depressed going into 2020, with the 2019-nCoV issue adding to the gloom
A capital increase can’t be ruled out even if it is not (yet?) on management’s agenda
We will revise our forecasts downwards and most likely factor in a (still theoretical) capital increase, with our target price obviously going down
The top-line number is in line, with manganese strongly down and nickel sharply up.
The Alloys issue is still weighing.
The group reiterates its FY19 EBITDA target.
All eyes on the two ongoing projects (lithium and capacity expansion in manganese).
Prices have weighed on manganese and nickel in H1 19
The delivery delays in Alloys have added to the pain
All in all, the results are decent, but lower than last year’s
H2 should be better, even if Eramet does post lower operating profits than in FY18
The lithium and manganese projects are still being investigated (decisions by year-end at the earliest)
- FY18 broadly in line despite a lower net income on tax and impairment.
- FY19 will see two major decisions: capacity expansion in Gabon (manganese) and the lithium project in Argentina.
- Other issues remain the process quality issue in Alloys (€65m provisioned) and the “restructuring” in nickel.
- The group expects a similar EBITDA level in FY19.
- Probably no big changes to our numbers/opinion: the story remains a mid-term one, on inroads into the energy transition field.
Eramet issued a press release over the weekend, mentioning the non-conformance of the quality management system in the Alloys division.
After this morning’s news in the Alloys division (see our earlier comment), we have talked to the company and had a few points clarified.
Revenues in Q3 were up 8% yoy to €951m (-3% in manganese, +25% in nickel, -1% in alloys and +221% in mineral sands with the 100% consolidation of Mineral Deposits) and c.+4% at CER and constant scope.
The H1 18 results are OK, despite the fact cash costs have gone up mainly on energy costs. Aubert & Duval experienced a difficult H1 while forex also took its toll. The results remain decent and various initiatives are on the cards (such as the full acquisition of Mineral Deposits), so we are not too worried on the long-term prospects but price (and costs) volatility will remain.
Eramet confirmed it has acquired a controlling interest in Mineral Deposits Limited (MDL, Australia), now holding 63.87%, while the Board of MDL has unanimously recommended the offer. The latter will be closed on 24 July for a total AU$350m (€220m) for MDL’s equity.
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Planned maintenance downtime at Vametco offset a solid performance at Vanchem as Q1 2021 vanadium production fell by 22% and 29% versus Q1 and Q4 of 2020, to 688t. Vametco is showing better stability post restart, but mindful of ongoing workstreams to maintain this, and of ramp-up risks attached to the Vanchem refurbishment, Bushveld now expects full-year production to come in towards the lower end of its 4,100-4,350t guidance range. We still envisage overall improved output this year, which in
Companies: Bushveld Minerals Limited
Pantheon Resources announced that its best estimate of the oil in place in respect of the Theta West field, which it recently penetrated with the Talitha #A, well is 12.1 billion barrels of oil. The company announced that its best estimate of the success-case recoverable resource potential for the field amounts to 1.41 billion barrels of oil. The oil in place estimate is comprised of 11.0 billion barrels of oil from the Lower Theta West system and 1.10 billion barrels of oil from the Upper Theta
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
Following on from our previous report we wanted to explore the potential value of the Jade, Topaz and Pearl prospects in the event of success. We explore a potential three stage approach to the drilling of the three identified prospects within Block 29/11. Phase 1 involves success at Jade, which in the event of a commercial discovery would see our risked valuation of Jade increase from 9.7p to 41.2p. Phase 2 involves success at Topaz, which in the event of a commercial discovery would see our ri
Companies: Empyrean Energy PLC
Not much of note in Touchstone’s Q1 results, although the oil price recovery has spurred increased workover activity on its mature base oil business, stabilising production. Cash resources remain strong and Touchstone has significant remaining headroom on its credit facility, which alongside existing cash flows should cover this year’s work programme. Our risked-NAV and price target fall slightly, by 4% to 157p/sh, due primarily to lower net cash balances, but the impending Royston exploration w
Companies: Touchstone Exploration Inc
i3 Energy has announced that it has received creditor consents to proceed with a reduction in share capital to enable the payment of its maiden dividend.
In conjunction with consents provided by Baker Hughes GE in respect of a deferred payment arrangement, the company has agreed to i) pay Baker Hughes GE a maximum cash fee of £0.374M and ii) to reduce the exercise price of 5.277M warrants held by Baker Hughes GE to £0.0001/share.
Companies: i3 Energy Plc
Thor Mining (Thor) provides investors with exposure to a wide range of commodities in two safe jurisdictions (the USA and Australia). We see Thor's priority projects as its In-situ Recovery (ISR) projects in South Australia and its shovel-ready Molyhil tungsten project in Northern Territory. Short term, we expect news from exploration and drilling at its Ragged Range gold project in Western Australia and drilling in its uranium projects in Colorado – either of which could be transformational f
Companies: Thor Mining PLC
Union Jack Oil
Union Jack (UJO) has announced that the operator of the Wressle field development, Egdon Resources UK Limited, has received all the necessary regulatory consents for the commencement of a proppant squeeze operation at the Wressle oil production site, located in Lincolnshire. This final yet vital part of the work programme is expected to optimise output from the field to achieve an optimum constrained gross production rate of 500 bopd by June 2021.
The proppant sque
Companies: Union Jack Oil Plc
• The 7D well has been put on production at 3,700 bbl/d during the first 10 days of production and has averaged 4,550 bbl/d during the past three days. The well took only 33 days to drill at a cost of US$8.6 mm (7% below the US$9.2 mm estimate).
• During the last three days, Bretana oil field production has averaged approximately 11,100 bbl/d. Two wells, representing 1,200 bbl/d, are currently shut in awaiting increased water injection pump enhancements, suggesting an overall well production ca
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Full year 2020 results
AfriTin* (ATM LN) – £13m raised to expedite Phase 1 expansion of the Uis mine in Namibia
Greatland Gold (GGP LN) – Decline development underway at Havieron
Oriole Resources (ORR LN) – Iamgold drilling at Faré, Senegal
Companies: ATM GGP ORR
Q1 2021 results
Companies: Serinus Energy plc
By Caledonia's admission, it was a difficult quarter at its Blanket mine in Zimbabwe; a fall in ground, an exceptional rainy season and changes in the payment mechanism for gold, all impacted on the production, technical and financial outcomes in the quarter. Thankfully, these issues are now all resolved and the working capital position is now back to normal with increasing amounts of net cash. On the plus side, Caledonia rewarded its shareholders and raised its dividend to 12c per quarter (an
Companies: Caledonia Mining Corporation PLC
Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) –Q1 reaps benefit of a strong operating performance and higher copper prices
Caledonia Mining* (CMCL LN) – Blanket mine comes through weather affected Q1 to deliver above planned gold production in April
Eurasia Mining* (EUA LN) – Eurasia asset sale process. West Kytlim operations expand capacity
GoldStone Resources* (GRL LN) – Significant production guidance upgrade at Homase
Shanta Gold (SHG LN) – NED appointment
Walkabout Resources (WKT AU) – A$6.4m equity raise
Companies: CMCL EUA GRL SHG ATYM WKT
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY: EGY US/LN, PEN NO, PTAL LN/TAL CN, TETY SS, VLU LN/VLE CN, ALV CN, AOI CN/SS, CNE CN, CNE LN, CPI CN, ENQ LN, GKP LN, HRB LN, HUR LN, IGAS LN, KOS US/LN, NOR NO, OKE NO, SENX LN, TXP LN/CN
Vaalco Energy (EGY US/LN)C; Target price of £3.80 per share: Removing oil price risk in 2021 - 1Q21 cashflow was negatively impact by a ~US$12 working capital movement that should be reversed on the upcoming period given that the c
Companies: AOI ALV CNE CNE CNE ENQ HUR KOS PEN PEN TAL SEN TETY TETY TXP EGY VLE
Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Updated corporate presentation
Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – Q1 report highlights continued optimisation of expansion plans for Vanchem and Vametco
Berkeley Energia Ltd (BKY LN) – Amendment to draft climate-change bill in Spain
Condor Gold* (CNR LN) – Q1 results and progress report on La India
Horizonte Minerals (HZM LN) – Q1 results highlight £18m raised and progress with power line licence for the Araguaia ferronickel project
Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) –
Companies: BKY BEM BMN CNR HZM KAV POW