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  • 15 Nov 19

Q3 19: becoming a miner? ...not quite yet

Q3 19 was slightly under consensus but no drama North America (shale) and Brazil have slowed down, with EAMEA improving. The recovery is underway, but quite slow. The group refuses to indicate the (huge positive) impact of iron-ore sales on results. Iron-ore outout to raise to c.8Mt by 2022 (vs 6Mt today). We will slightly reduce forecasts and target price. We still do not like the (leaving) CEO’s communication.

Companies: Vallourec
  • 25 Jul 19

H1 19: improving but how long it has been…since FY15 (!)

- H1 19 showed an undeniable improvement in profitability - Net debt has been contained so far, making a capital increase less likely - The balance sheet still remains stretched and any market set-back would reinitiate speculations on yet a new issue - We will revise our valuation upwards, but do not underestimate the positive impact of iron-ore on the group’s numbers, which management refuses to detail (!)

Companies: Vallourec
  • 17 May 19

Q1 19 results: a mixed bag

- Q1 19 results were decent on the P&L front - Volumes, prices and savings have helped - However, cash consumption thus net debt still a worry - Management reaffirmed no issue to take place in FY19 - We are less confident and any market downturn would leave no other choice - In short: not bad but still some way to go

Companies: Vallourec
  • 21 Feb 19

First signs of a (much awaited and needed) recovery

- Q4 shows a rebound in volumes (particularly in EAMEA). - EBITDA substantially better in Q4, as expected and even better. - FCF positive in Q4 (first time since… 2015). - Outlook quite confident (to be slightly mitigated by our view on top management). - Management reasserts they can live without a share issue in FY19. - No big change to our numbers. We will reconsider after Q1/H1 if we sill believe in a capital increase.

Companies: Vallourec
  • 23 Nov 18

After the bloodbath

There is no real fact to trigger this Latest, other than the very sharp correction of the share price in the past few days and our thoughts on a potential capital increase.

Companies: Vallourec
  • 16 Nov 18

Q3 18: high time to...wait some more

Revenues reached €961m (-0.3% yoy and +5% at CER), EBITDA €43m (vs €9m), EBIT €-29m (vs €-88m) and net income €-92m (vs €-119m). Net debt at the end of Q3 18 reached €2,097m vs €1,934m in H1 €1,783m in Q1 and €1,542m at year-end 2017. Over 9 months, revenues were up 4.7% to €2,805m, EBITDA up from €-9m to €61m and operating profit up from €-277m to €-234m. The group had targeted a positive outlook for H2 with EBITDA higher than in H1, and now indicates Q4 EBITDA should be above that of Q3 (€43m). Demand should be softer in the US (after inventory build-up anticipating section 232) and stable in Brazil, while activities should benefit from higher volumes and prices elsewhere.

Companies: Vallourec
  • 26 Jul 18

H1 18: in line and unimpressive

Despite the recovery in the US and the “transformation plan”, forex and higher input costs make the H1 18 P&L very similar to last year’s. Although demand is well oriented in North America and should improve in EAMEA, investors are required to be patient before margins become healthy again.

Companies: Vallourec
  • 18 May 18

Q1 18: improving context and top-line; no change to the P&L though…

Vallourec released Q1 18 results. Revenues reached €862m (+10.1% and +22.1% at CER, EBITDA €-5m (vs €-21m), EBIT €-130m (vs €-111m) and net income €-170m (vs €-126m). Net debt at the end of Q1 18 reached €1,783m vs €1,542m at year-end 2017 (or +€241m). The group confirms its “positive outlook for the year with EBITDA in the second half of 2018 targeted to be significantly higher than in the first half”. Altogether, the group indicates EBITDA in the current year should improve over FY17’s.

Companies: Vallourec
  • 22 Feb 18

FY17 in line (and weak), with a rather uninspiring short-term outlook

FY17 inline and rather weak still. The outlook is not detailed and still uninspiring, with Vallourec’s exposure to the US “quite small”. The 2020 targets definitely look out of reach. We will most likely cut our forecasts and target.

Companies: Vallourec
  • 09 Nov 17

Q3 17: not geared to oil prices? Who said that?

Vallourec’s Q3 17 results: sales reached €964m (+39.1%, +29% comparable), EBITDA €9m (vs €-52m), EBIT €-88m vs €-143m and net income €-119m (vs €-160m). Net debt at the end of Q3 stood at €1,645m (vs €1,287m a year ago, €1,533m in Q1 17 and €1,613m in H1), with free cash flow in Q3 reaching €-72m. Over 9 months, sales reached €2,680m (+26%, +11.1% comparable), EBITDA €-9m (vs €-156m), EBIT €-277m vs € -561m and net income €-396m (vs €-612m) and free cash flow of €-397m. In H1, the group had upgraded its guidance for FY17, targeting a €125-175m improvement in EBITDA (vs €50-100m previously). This would have implied an EBITDA of c. €-95m/€-45m for FY17. After Q3, the group re-upgraded its target for FY17, now targeting an EBITDA of €-30m/€-10m.

Companies: Vallourec
  • 26 Jul 17

H1 17 not bad...but H2 does not look too exciting

Vallourec’s H1 17 results: sales reached €1,716m (+19.7%), EBITDA €-18m (vs €-104m), EBIT €-189m (vs €-418m) and net income €-254m (vs €-415m). Net debt at the end of H1 stood at €1,613m (vs €1,287m a year ago and €1,533m in Q1 17), and free cash flow in H1 reaching €-325m. The group upgraded its guidance for FY17, now targeting a €125-175m improvement in EBITDA (vs €50-100m previously). This would imply an EBITDA of c. €-95m/€-45m for FY17.

Companies: Vallourec
  • 27 Apr 17

Q1 17: the situation is slowly improving

Revenues in Q1 17 reached €783m (+16.7% and -1.5% comparable at CER, EBITDA €-21m (vs €-72m), EBIT €-111m (vs €-290m) and net income €-126m (vs €-284m). Net debt at the end of Q1 17 reached €1,533m vs €1,287m at year-end 2016. The group indicated that the improvement in EBITDA for FY17 should be “in the upper part” of a €50-100m range, thus suggesting an EBITDA level of c. €-120m.

Companies: Vallourec
  • 23 Feb 17

FY16 in line; H1 17 set to be weak...some hopes later on

Vallourec released FY16 results. Revenues reached €2,965m (-22%), EBITDA €-219m (vs €-77m), EBIT €-749m (vs €-838m) and net results €-758m (€-865m). Free cash flow was €-395m (and €-574m at constant WCR). Net debt at the end of FY16 amounted to €1.3bn. No dividend will be proposed. Looking forward, the group anticipates EBITDA to improve by…€50-100m in FY17.

Companies: Vallourec
  • 09 Nov 16

Q3 16 : still waiting for the market to bottom out

Vallourec released Q3 16 results. Revenues were down 20.5% to €693m, EBITDA €-52m (vs €-66m in Q3 15), operating income €-143m (vs €-165m) and net result €-160m (vs €-164m). Over 9 months, revenues were down 27.7% to €2,127m, EBITDA €-156m (vs €0m), operating income €-561m (vs €-393m) and net income €-575m vs €-439m. Net debt at the end of Q3 was €1,020m (€944m in H1). The group re-iterated its FY guidance (EBITDA lower than in FY15, negative free cash flow of c. €600m and net debt below €1.5bn after the Tianda acquisition and full consolidation of VSB).

Companies: Vallourec
  • 29 Jul 16

H1 16: a better Q2, but really no reason for excitement

Vallourec released H1 16 results. Revenues were down 30.7% to €1,434m (-27.3% at CER), EBITDA was €-104m vs €66m in H1 15, operating income €-418m vs €-228m and net income (group share) €-415m vs €-275m. Free cash flow was €-317m in H1 16, leading to a decrease in net debt of €575m to €944m after the positive impact of the capital increase (€959m).

Companies: Vallourec

Research, Charts & Company Announcements

Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Vallourec. We currently have 21 research reports from 1 professional analysts.

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Latest News/RNS

(more news)
Date Source Announcement
18Mar19 07:00 GNW VALLOUREC: selected by Thailand's PTT Exploration & Production PLC (PTTEP) to deliver oil country tubular goods
18Mar19 07:00 GNW Vallourec is selected by Thailand's PTT Exploration & Production PLC (PTTEP) to deliver oil country tubular goods for a challenging offshore project in Myanmar
20Feb19 16:46 GNW VALLOUREC reports full year 2018 results
28Nov18 17:02 GNW Press release Vallourec
26Nov18 20:00 GNW VALLOUREC : press release
15Nov18 16:45 GNW VALLOUREC reports third quarter results and results for the first nine months of 2018
24Sep18 13:32 GNW VALLOUREC : Vallourec launches a new brand Vallourec.smart
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  • 20 Nov 19

We remain selective; Buy Consumer Tech

We continue to take a selective stance on stocks within the small cap Technology space. The sector’s equity performance was lacklustre over 2019, rising 4% and keeping pace with the All-Share index (relative to multi-year periods of outperformance) as investors took a cautious stance on geopolitical and macro risk. We believe cautious sentiment is likely to dominate trade during the first half of 2020 and maintain our preference for consumeroriented players, consistent with our Arden Thematic Technology framework. Our top picks for 2020 are CDM, EVRH*, SUMO and VNET.

Companies: CALL CDM FDEV KWS SUMO TM17

  • 19 Nov 19

LIBERUM: Equiniti* - 2H19 likely to be impacted by political uncertainties and rate cuts

The resilience of the group’s registration business, alongside the momentum in Intelligent Solutions, place it in a strong position to deliver attractive revenue growth despite the turbulence in the macro environment. However, lower than expected levels of higher margin corporate action and interest income results in FY19 EBITDA being towards the lower end of consensus expectations, and sees us reduce our FY19 EPS forecast by 4%.

Companies: Equiniti Group
  • 14 Nov 19

Evolving investment case - the next phase

While the FY20 interims are in-line, this does not tell the whole story with the investment case for Volex evolving away from the recovery mode of the last few years to a growth business which now focuses on cash generative, higher margin customers in new markets. The business is substantially de-risked with the top three customers now accounting for 25% of revenues – down from 47% in FY15 and when combined with a re-iteration of our PBT growth forecast of 47% for FY20, an upgrade to our expected net cash estimate from US$17m to US$23m at March 2020, a restored dividend and with it trading on a FY20 PE rating of just 10x, we re-iterate our buy recommendation with a price target of 160p.

Companies: Volex
  • 14 Nov 19

Strong interim results

Volex has announced results for the 26 weeks to 29th September 2019 that reflect management’s focus on operational efficiency, cost control and margin analysis to drive business at acceptable margins. Adjusted PBT and EPS(FD) rose 69.3% and 48.3% respectively with benefit captured from targeted acquisitions. The Group has also returned to the dividend list with the payment of a 1p interim dividend, the first since 2013. On a calendarised basis the shares currently trade at a 34% PER and 36% EV/EBITDA discount to a comparable peer group for 2020. The Board has reiterated its confidence in delivering its full year expectations and in its ability to drive shareholder value.

Companies: Volex
  • 14 Nov 19

Strong interim results

Volex has announced results for the 26 weeks to 29th September 2019 that reflect management’s focus on operational efficiency, cost control and margin analysis to drive business at acceptable margins. Adjusted PBT and EPS(FD) rose 69.3% and 48.3% respectively with benefit captured from targeted acquisitions. The Group has also returned to the dividend list with the payment of a 1p interim dividend, the first since 2013. On a calendarised basis the shares currently trade at a 34% PER and 36% EV/EBITDA discount to a comparable peer group for 2020. The Board has reiterated its confidence in delivering its full year expectations and in its ability to drive shareholder value.

Companies: Volex
  • 15 Nov 19

Back to basics

We believe now is an interesting time to invest in Northgate, with a new executive board and a capable management team in place who have already delivered progress on an ongoing turnaround as we await a full strategic review. The group now has a clear and well communicated capital allocation strategy in place and improved earnings quality, in our view. We believe that the growth opportunity in the UK, the value of the Spanish business and the progress made to date with the turnaround are not being reflected in the share price, which is currently 15.9% below book value (414p per share in FY19A rising to 468p in FY22E). We use a variety of valuation methods including P/B, SOTP, DDM and DCF modelling and arrive at an average implied share price of 450p, 29.0% above the current share price.

Companies: Northgate
  • 21 Oct 19

Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 20 Nov 19

Avon Rubber - Transformational year builds momentum

Avon delivered FY19 modestly ahead of market expectations, as foreshadowed in the September trading update. New US mask systems contracts drove healthy organic growth for Avon Protection and, while milkrite | InterPuls sales were essentially flat, a progressive recovery in dairy markets allowed it to make up the shortfall experienced in Q119. Both divisions are expected to carry the positive momentum into FY20, with margins expected to improve in both divisions. The proposed record acquisition of 3M’s ballistic protection assets should substantially enhance earnings, and this has driven the re-rating in recent months.

Companies: Avon Rubber
  • 20 Nov 19

Resilience Mispriced

Macfarlane Group has released a trading update for the 4 months to 31 October demonstrating the resilience of the Group’s activities and strategy. Assuming the normal seasonal uplift through Q4, the Board expects full year results to be ahead of last year and in line with its expectations. In our view, the current share price does not reflect the relative defensive characteristics of the business and thus we see today’s update as an endorsement of strategy and believe the stock should trade comfortably above current levels. Reiterate buy.

Companies: Macfarlane Group
  • 21 Nov 19

Cenkos: Breedon Group Plc -- Standing firm, standing out

With the share price off 16.5% over the past month and virtually 25% of the company's equity having been ‘re-housed' over the past quarter, investors are probably craving a period of stability. In trading terms that's exactly what Breedon is delivering. The latest update (to end-October) is reassuring and firmly underpins valuation. As noted very recently (see ‘Stick with the fundamentals', 7 November 2019), Breedon shares have never been as cheaply rated in their entire history; the prospective 2020E EV/EBITDA being c6.4x, PE c11x and a healthy FCF yield of over 9% with nominal FCF sweating debt by over £90m per annum, or helping to support its proven accretive add-on acquisition strategy. In our view, this recent, technical, bout of price depression represents an excellent buying opportunity.

Companies: Breedon Group
  • 04 Nov 19

THE MONTHLY November 2019

The trade-off in the risk/reward for gold and gold mining equities is improving, as central banks push the current iteration of the post-World War II Bretton Woods financial order towards its limits.

Companies: AVO AJB AGY ARBB BUR CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR MCL MUR NSF PCA PIN SRE PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SCE TON SHED VTA W7L

  • 15 Nov 19

LIBERUM: Kier Group - Re-assuring statement and no change to earnings or debt

AGM trading statement guides to trading in line with expectations, but now indicates at least £55m of savings in FY 2021. We continue to expect average net debt of £374m for FY 2020, which is clearly key.

Companies: Kier Group
  • 22 Nov 19

LIBERUM: SThree* - A clear vision and large opportunity

We came away from SThree's CMD yesterday with a sense that management has a very clear vision of how to address what is a large market opportunity. There is increased discipline and analytical rigour in decision making on the deployment of resource.

Companies: SThree
  • 18 Nov 19

Headwinds lead to a downgrade

Following a trading update which highlighted trading conditions in the UK and Hong Kong (between them they account for c50% of net fees), have deteriorated, we have downgraded our 2019 and 2020 PBT forecasts from £3.6m and £3.9m respectively to £3.0m in each year. Our revised dividend forecast is now 1.6p in both 2019 and 2020 (originally 1.7p and 2.0p). This still represents dividend growth in 2019 of 7% as Hydrogen will retain a net cash position of over £5.5m. On these revised PBT estimates Hydrogen is now trading on PE rating of 5x for 2020 and offers a dividend yield of 4%. We recognise the immediate outlook lacks visibility though given management’s proven capability of guiding the business through previous downturns and the inherent cyclical nature of the recruitment sector, the current share price does represent an opportunity with it now trading at a 12 month low. We retain our buy recommendation with a price target of 75p – previously 100p.

Companies: Hydrogen Group
  • 19 Nov 19

Interim results: Market share gains in tough markets

Interim results illustrate two main features: challenging underlying markets as previously flagged, which were partly offset by ongoing increases in market share. Some effects from customers delaying new product introductions was also seen, which reflected the fragile business confidence. Automotive markets remain weak for the time being, although the pipeline in this area should see robust future growth, assisted by EV introductions. No change to forecasts having reduced expectations following October’s trading update. Looking through the downturn, we now consider the shares to be good value on a P/E of 13x and offer good upside.

Companies: Trifast