The positive on EBITDA, the negative on free cash flow
In 2018, Prodware had satisfactory EBITDA in a challenging transformation to SaaS. Conversely, free cash flow was disappointing due to a deterioration in the collection of trade receivables in Q4 18, a strong increase in capex due to the renovation of the headquarters and agencies within the group. Management confirmed the focus on the development of SaaS revenue, margin improvement and higher free cash flow by the end of the strategic programme 2016-21.
13 Mar 19
EBITDA margin increase anticipated based on good revenue. (Prodware)
EBITDA margin increase anticipated based on good revenue. EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE€ 15.5 vs 15.4 +0.72% The adjustment of the target price is related to the fine-tuning of our model (see our comments on the change of 2018E EPS). The share price has recovered since the beginning of the year 2019 (+10% ytd) but has underperformed the software sector (+12.3% ytd) (situation on 25 February 19). The stock is trading at low PE ratios (<8x 2018E and <7x 2019E based on a cautious outlook) and could appreciate further when 2018 earnings are released (11 March 19). CHANGE IN EPS2018 : € 1.69 vs 1.61 +4.58% 2019 : € 1.75 vs 1.75 -0.08% The upwards revision of 2018E EPS is due to revenue above expectation (€175.9m vs. €172.2m estimated), thanks to a strong Q4. In 2018, Group EBITDA is now estimated to €32.8m (vs. €32.1m previously), corresponding to a margin rate of 18.6% of revenue (+0.3pt yoy). CHANGE IN NAV€ 23.0 vs 21.9 +4.95% The NAV is based on EV/Sales multiples to value both operating segments, i.e. 2.0x for the Infrastructures and SaaS and 0.8x for the Own Software Solutions in Integration of Business Software Solutions. The upgrade of the NAV is due to the switch to 2019E revenue.
27 Feb 19
Good revenue growth, above expectation.
In Q4 18, revenue growth (+10.7% on constant scope) was above expectation and benefited also from a low comparative in Q4 17 (-16.7% on constant scope). Prodware had record SaaS revenue growth (+45.9%) following a weak Q3 18 (+2%). Geographically, there was a good development in International (c.+11%), in particular in Benelux (+23.6%) which integrated the Microsoft Dynamics business acquired from CTAC in the Netherlands.
21 Feb 19
Decline in revenue as expected in Q3 18.
The decrease in revenue by -1.2% on a constant perimeter was broadly in line with expectation; note last year’s high comparative (+3% on constant scope in Q3 17). Software editing and integration were satisfactory overall while SaaS revenue decelerated strongly in Q3 18 following two buoyant quarters. We see this as temporary and not calling into question SaaS future growth since the expansion of SaaS is structural in the software market.
19 Nov 18
Good margin achievement
The strong EBITDA margin (21.1% of revenue) resulted from revenue growth, management of subcontracting, the transformation to the SaaS mode and also no restructuring costs, all offsetting the surge in staff costs related to the recruitment of people with greater expertise to meet customer demand.
18 Oct 18
Revenue growth above expectations
Revenue growth accelerated above expectations at constant scope in Q2 18 (+6.9% following +4.9% in Q1 18). Growth was driven by the international markets which benefited from the signature of a large number of contracts based on the Microsoft Dynamics 365 online platform. The development of the SaaS model, a source of recurring revenue, continued at high double-digit growth. In H1 18, SaaS revenue represented 17.4% of the total (+3.1pts).
23 Jul 18
Reshaping the business
Prodware is making progress with its strategy to refocus the company on profitable business lines and cloud-based solutions. This is reducing revenues in the short term but should ultimately result in higher recurring revenues and more sustainable profitability. We have revised our forecasts to reflect current trading and the transition to subscription-based revenues. On our reduced forecasts, Prodware continues to trade at a discount to peers; growth in recurring revenues combined with margin expansion should start to narrow this discount.
13 Dec 16
Solid foundations for growth
The Q1 revenues release shows that with revenues of €42.5m in Q1 Prodware continues to make solid progress (+2.6% Q1 on Q1 underlying growth) and that there are also signs of a turnaround in the Benelux and all important German markets. The €79m debt restructuring post year-end leaves Prodware well financed to achieve its ambitious medium-term growth objectives. The shares, however, continue to trade on substantial and undeserved multiple discounts to comparators.
26 May 16
Drive for growth
Prodware is well positioned both to grow revenues and to drive sales of its higher-margin software, rather than its integration services. The integration and restructuring of the Qurius acquisition is now complete and the balance sheet has been restructured. Furthermore, management is once again focusing on growth, as evidenced by the stated intent to grow revenues to €300m by 2020, the Prodware Academy programme, the creation of the Business Consulting division and the open desire to make acquisitions. Despite this potential, the shares trade at significant sales and earnings multiple discounts relative to European comparators.
12 Nov 15