Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on HAVAS SA. We currently have 4 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Slightly slowing organic growth, although on a tough basis of comparison
26 Oct 16
Havas’ Q3 16 revenues grew by 2% organically (on a tough basis of comparison as Q3 15 was +5.5%) after +2.7% in Q2 and +3.4% in Q1, leaving the 9 months 2016 underlying top-line performance at +2.7% (9 months 2015: +6%). The Q3 organic trend was supported by Europe (+7.7%) while Asia Pacific and LatAm were down respectively 7.1% and 6.3%. The North American decline (-1.2%; 0% ytd) is said to be against a high base-line with Q4 and FY17e expected to see improvements. Reported revenues at 30 September reached €1,624m, up €74m (+4.8%) from a year earlier, and came after a €46.3m negative impact from forex (i.e. -3%) and a +5.1% impact from acquisitions (€78.4m). The FY16e guidance for top-line organic growth, which had been slightly upgraded from +2-3% to +3-4% in August is therefore more likely to be around +2.5% to +3% according to management who also said it was confident for FY17e
Slightly slowing Q2 organic growth but a solid full-year guidance
08 Aug 16
Havas’ revenues grew by 2.7% organically over Q2 16 after the +3.4% registered over Q1, leaving the H1 16 top-line organic revenue performance at a very decent +3% (Publicis: +2.8%). Reported revenues at 30 June reached €1,087m, up €53m from a year earlier, and came after a €29m negative impact from forex (i.e. -2.8%) and a +5% impact from acquisitions (€51m). Consolidated OP improved by 6.8% to €146.7m, i.e. a 20bp margin improvement to 13.5%. Group share net income amounted to €82.4m compared with €77m a year earlier. The FY16e guidance was slightly upgraded for top-line organic growth (from +2-3% to +3-4%) while reiterated for the operating margin (+10-15bp), which we estimate is underlining management’s traditional caution.
Solid top-line organic performance confirmed
23 Oct 15
After the solid H1 15 figures (organic revenue growth of +6.3%), Havas produced a satisfactory set of Q3 15 figures with revenues up 5.5% organically (despite a tough basis of comparison as Q3 14 was +6%). The 9 month performance was thus +6% (9 months 2014: +5.8%), with total reported revenues of €1,550m, up 18.1% or +€337m (including a €121m positive impact from forex). Management however maintained its previous guidance for the full-year for consolidated revenues to rise by +5% organically, implying a fairly low Q4 (c.+2%). This is, however, against a rather high basis of comparison and CEO Yannick Bolloré has stated that the macro-economic environment is not as good as three months ago, with LatAm namely deteriorating (organic growth down 0.9% over Q3). He reiterated his confidence in an improvement of around +30bps for the operating margin this year.
Impressive organic top-line performance, but modest profitability improvement
01 Sep 15
Havas has just produced solid H1 15 figures with organic revenue growth reaching +6.3%, higher than its main competitors as Publicis delivered +1.2%, WPP +4.9% and Omnicom +5.2% and despite a rather unfavourable basis of comparison (H1 14 was +5.7%). This nonetheless reflects some slowdown in Q2 to +5.5% after +7.1% in Q1. Reported revenues rose by 19.2% after a positive forex impact of €85.6m (US$ rise versus the euro) and a €20m impact from acquisitions. The operating margin improved 22bp to 13.25% (H1 14 restated figures further to the retrospective application of IFRIC 21), despite a slight negative impact from the compensation ratio (61.5% versus 61.2%, reflecting the traditional H1 impact from bonuses), as the group pursued its efforts to reduce costs (namely continuing to review all its supplier contracts and reducing its lease costs, the latter being supported by the development of the Village concept). Management reiterated its 2015 guidance (+3% organic growth; +30bp in profitability). As a reminder, Asia-Pacific and LatAm generate only 15% of total revenues, which could cushion in the short term the latter's slowdown negative impact.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 29-11-2016
29 Nov 16
Vp has reported another impressive set of interims, confirming strong growth in most markets and a positive outlook. Recent acquisitions are bedding in well and the full year outturn is set to exceed previous expectations (5%/6% EPS upgrades in FY17/FY18). The recent Capital Markets Day provided a reminder of Vp’s qualities (specialist focus, high returns, strong cash generation) and its growth potential, which in our view are not reflected in a modest <11x P/E rating. We firmly believe the shares are due a re-rating and see intrinsic value in excess of 800p.
Joy of Techs
21 Nov 16
ICT evolution is driven by technological development as advances are made which both meet and shape customer requirements. Our 2011 note No such thing as a telco described the modern reality in that former ‘telcos’ now deliver varying elements of a range of managed services. We built on this theme last year, exploring in further detail their evolutionary paths, operating fundamentals, and cashflow yield similarities. In the consumer environment, demand for bundles of technology is complemented by demand for content. Across the pond, the mooted combination of AT&T and Time Warner typifies the bundled need of ‘pipe’ and content, since unbundled alternatives such as FaceTime and WhatsApp can be easier and clearer to chat over, and Amazon and Netflix are easier to watch anywhere. In the UK, BT’s defensive actions cover delivery, content and capabilities, acquiring EE yet also buying football rights. While TV was long ago added to triple play to become quad play, voice is now merely an app, and fixed and mobile seen as just dumb pipes: it's the content that will influence consumer choices. Growth of TV and film as well as music and gaming over IP leads to UK small cap opportunities. In context of the drive to maximise value from pipes and access by offering content and data, we look at some amongst the potential tech small cap beneficiaries: Amino*, Keyword Studios, ZOO Digital*, 7digital*, KCOM* and CityFibre*.
Response to Government consultation
02 Dec 16
In the 2015 Autumn Statement, the Government stated the intention to remove the right to general damages for minor soft tissue injury claims with compensation for injuries such as whiplash now being made in medical care rather than cash. In addition, the Government proposed to raise the small claims limit for personal injury cases from £1,000 to £5,000.
17 Nov 16
Topic of the quarter: Following on from our last quarterly we have delved further into the potential and challenges that the Internet of Things present the sector. Having spoken to a wide variety of companies from the sector (large and small, UK and overseas) it is apparent that there is going to be a very significant increase in the amount of data either generated by or available to Support Service companies. The key to generating value from this change will be breaking down the silos in which data is currently held, attracting and investing in the right skills and talent, seeing beyond the short-term investment that is likely to be needed and engaging with clients on a higher, more strategic level. If the sector doesn’t react, then the door is wide open for the Technology sector.
05 Aug 16
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02 Dec 16
"By late Sunday, we should have a good idea whether or not Italian Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, will be stepping down. The polls suggest his constitutional referendum, which has effectively become a confidence vote on his premiership, will get a 'thumbs down'. No new election is actually required until February 2018, but any attempt to simply replace him with another technocrat leader could well see a public, suffering from implosion of their bad-debt laden banking system, 38% youth unemployment and an inability to stifle giant capital outflows, clamouring for a snap election. This, of course, would open the door for Bepe Grillo's Five Star Movement, whose denouncement of the Euro could, in turn, generate in a wave of similar populist referendum voting across other dissatisfied EU nations, with France's own presidential election, due to take place on 7th May, the headline this morning following Francois Hollande's overnight declaration that he has decided not to stand. The prospect of Eurozone's collapse, however, was not the driver of the US session, which started in the positive following release of strong November Manufacturing ISM data, but waned later as a sell-off amongst tech issues pushed the NASDAQ sharply down, while the Dow Jones managed to hold onto modest gains due to sustained switching into financials, as divergence between the two sectors and the rout in government bond markets since Trump's election continued. Asian shares were lower across the board, with the Nikkei suffering as the Yen found buyers amongst US$ sceptics waiting for flaws in the Trump rally to show through, which dragged the other regional markets with it. With investors now virtually taking a 25bp hike by the Fed later this month for granted, focus this afternoon is likely to centre on the important US employment report, with forecasts in the 180k to 200k range, taking unemployment to 4.8% with a modest rise in hourly earnings of around 0.1%. The UK will also report Construction PMI figures this morning while corporates due to disclose earnings or trading updates include 88 Energy (88E.L), Altona Energy (ANR.L) and Berkeley Group Holdings (BKG.L). Traders meanwhile continue to watch oil futures carefully; although prices moderated during the Asian session, sentiment following OPEC's agreement remains positive with January's light, sweet crude trading a whisker below US$51 on the Mercantile Exchange, as they weigh up expectations on the terms being upheld or the various participants instead deciding to cheat on quotas rather than give up market share to US shale producers. London equities opened in a nervous mood this morning, with the FTSE-100 down over 57 points in early trading." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst