Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Engie. We currently have 10 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Engie has published its Q1-17 trading update. The figures were below expectations as, despite the 3.2% increase in revenues to €19.5bn, EBITDA declined by 3.6% to €3.3bn and operating income declined by 4.6% to €2.2bn mainly driven by low hydro production in France and the shutdown of one nuclear reactor since September 2016. The earnings results were below market expectations. Despite the weak Q1 earnings performance, the group confirmed the full year guidance (EBITDA of €10.7-11.3bn and net income of €2.4-2.6bn) as the first quarter was impacted by multiple timing impacts. However, the company’s financial situation is seeing a substantial improvement as net debt decreased by 17.7% ytd with positive operating cash flows, improving the credit ratios. This positive effect was visible despite the decrease in earnings.
The company has presented poor results, but with decreases that are lower than expected. Revenues decreased 4.6% yoy to €66.6bn, EBITDA was down 5.2% yoy to €10.7bn with a 2.7% yoy decrease organically, and adjusted net income at €2.5bn (-4.3% yoy). On a reported basis, the group finished once again in the red with reported net income at -€0.4bn driven by €3.8bn of impairments in power plants, nuclear assets and merchant activities. The dividend is maintained within expectations at €1/share for 2016 and €0.7/share for 2017 and 2018. The good news comes from the guidance, as the group expects to return to growth with EBITDA reaching €10.7-11.3bn and net income in the €2.4-2.6bn range, despite the erosion effect from the disposal of assets already achieved.
Engie, through a consortium with the Saudi Electric Company (SEC) and Saudi Aramco, has won a contract to build a 1.5GW cogeneration power plant using CCGT technology in Saudi Arabia For a total investment of $1.2bn, this would take the achieved cost of the project to $1.25m/MW, which is extremely competitive. Engie would hold a 40% stake in the project, with SEC holding 30% and Saudi Aramco the remaining 30%, which implies that Engie would have a $480m investment envelope in the project. The construction contract is attached to two 20-year contracts, whereby SEC would buy the electricity and Saudi Aramco would buy the steam and hot water produced, reducing the exposure of the project to wholesale price movements, although the achieved price for the contracts have not been disclosed. The power plant is expected to be commissioned in 2019, with the operation and maintenance of the power plant being transferred to SEC in 2018.
Engie has published its 9M trading update with revenue falling 11.1% yoy and 10.3% in organic terms ro reach €47.5bn, with EBITDA falling 5.4% yoy and -2% organically to €7.7bn. Nevertheless, operating cash flows decreased by 8.3% yoy to €6.8bn. Net debt fell by €1.9bn (-6.8% ytd), but the net debt/EBITDA ratio improved (2.38x). The results were negatively affected by commodity prices and compensated by higher infrastructure tariffs. The group confirmed its 2016 financial targets: adjusted net income group at the low end of the range of €2.4-2.7bn and EBITDA of €10.8-11.4bn.
The difficult half year of the group has been confirmed, mainly at the top-line level as it misses expectations with revenues decreasing 11.9% yoy to €33.5bn. However, the impact has been reduced due to an optimisation of the cost base with EBITDA reaching €5,651m (-7.8% yoy), mainly affected by lower commodity prices (with achieved prices), and a reduction in gas margins. Lower depreciation expenses and a reduction in impairment charges were achieved so that the operating profit increased 5.2% yoy to €3.38bn, pushing upwards in its path net income to an 11.3% yoy increase to €1,237m. On an adjusted basis, operating profit fell by 3.5% yoy to €3.5bn, providing a 1.9% organic growth, while net income decreased by 7% yoy to €1.5bn, which is in line with expectations. A €0.5/share interim dividend in cash will be paid. On the cash flow side, on top of lower earnings, the group had a negative one-off of €1.1bn of margin calls and derivatives which plunged the operating cash flow towards a 32% yoy decrease to €4.79bn. The decrease, added to the 9.6% yoy increase in capex and besides the €1.45bn from disposals and the repayment of €1.43bn of outstanding debt, made free cash flow finish in negative territory at -€657m. Despite the difficult results, the group has confirmed the full-year results with EBITDA at €10.8–11.4bn and adjusted net income in the €2.4-2.7bn range. Following the new strategy of the company, Engie has a new segment reporting in line with the new organisational structure.
Engie has provided mixed results as revenues reached €18.9bn, which is a 14.3% yoy decrease and falls short of expectations by 12%. However, given the conditions, EBITDA was strong as it fell by 1.7% yoy to €3.5bn, although on an adjusted basis it grew 2.3% where the positive results were supported by the restart of 3 reactors in Belgium and cost-cutting measures, which is in line with consensus. Moreover, operating income increased 0.4% yoy to €2.4bn and +5.9% on an adjusted basis, beating forecasts by 2%. On the other hand, operating cash flows decreased by 55% yoy, but this was mainly driven by WC movements due to the use of derivatives to cover the fall in commodity prices, and higher gas inventories. It is expected that the negative WC movements will be reversed over the year. Net debt decreased by €0.7bn due to cash generation and the first effects of the disposal programme. Following this publication, the group confirmed all its FY16 guidance: EBITDA between €10.8bn and €11.4bn, adjusted net income between €2.4bn and €2.7bn, a 2.5x net debt/EBITDA ratio and an A credit rating and a €1/share dividend to be paid in cash. The group has confirmed its intention to issue an IPO on Electrabel in 2017 (the Belgian subsidiary). The process has been started as the separation of the management of the subsidiary has already been achieved and the group is currently in legally creating an independent and separate entity.
Weak top-line performance as both revenues and EBITDA miss estimates. Revenues decreased 6.4% yoy to €69.88bn, 4% short of the forecast, with EBITDA having a similar decrease as sales (-6.6% yoy), missing forecasts by 1.2%. Adjusted operating income decreased by 11.6% yoy to €6.32bn, but the 4% fall is less dramatic than expected; however, on a reported basis it finished in negative territory due to impairments (-€8.7bn) and restructuring costs (-€870m), pushing the reported EBIT into negative territory to -€3.24bn. Due to this, the company had a reported net loss of -€4.62bn but, on an adjusted basis, net income reached €2.6bn, representing a €17% yoy decrease, 1% above estimates. Cash flows remained strong despite the decrease in EBITDA, as operating cash flows increased by 18.6% yoy helped by a substantial improvement in working capital (+€1.16bn). The improvement allowed Engie to cover a 58% increase in net capex and its dividend payments. A €1/share dividend has been proposed, to be paid in cash with a similar one expected for 2016, while dividends have been cut for 2017 and 2018 to €0.7/share to provide investors with visibility during the transition process. A radical transformation process has been put in place with €15bn of asset disposals, an increase in investment objectives, in addition to a move towards a lighter capital-intensive model with a more decentralised approach. On 2016 guidance, the group expects to achieve EBITDA between €10.8bn and €11.4bn with net income between €2.4bn and €2.7bn. An A credit rating is targeted with a 2.5x net debt/EBITDA ratio.
The Q3 trading update has confirmed that 2015 is a difficult year for the group. Sales fell by 1.5% ytd to €53.5bn and -4.6% on an organic basis. Gas and LNG revenues decreased by 38% ytd and Europe by 2.1% ytd, offset by strong performances in International (+10.4%), Infrastructure (+7.7%) and Energy services (4.1%). EBITDA reached €8.1bn, a 7.5% ytd decrease, mainly due to lower power and commodity prices and the effects on E&P and LNG activities, in addition to the unavailability of Belgium nuclear plants. Despite this, operating cash flow remains strong at €7.4bn, 8% above the previous year's levels, being able to withstand the capex increase. Nevertheless, investment has been adjusted to growth opportunities, as there has been a further reduction of €200m in E&P (an additional 10% decrease). Impairments are expected on the FY results due to worsening market conditions, with a downward adjustment of the carrying values of certain assets, although the amount has not been stated. However, it is important to remember the group has a robust balance sheet, one of the strongest in the sector. The group maintains its full-year guidance: EBITDA between €11.5bn and €12bn and adjusted net income €2.75-3.05bn, although it now expects the latter towards the lower end of the range. The dividend policy is maintained, with no objective to change it as cash flow generation remains strong.
Less dramatic than expected H1 results, as the group continues to feel the downward pressure from both electricity and commodity markets. Revenues decreased 2% yoy to €38.52bn, which is in line with expectations. EBITDA decreased by 4.79% yoy to €6.12bn, although the decrease is less than expected. The operating profit of the group decreased by 13% yoy to €3.61bn, but is still 4% above consensus. But the best results are provided on the bottom line, as adjusted net income reached €1.8bn, which was a 28.2% yoy decrease, but still 20.2% above consensus. The reported net income nonetheless reached €1.11bn due to the €700m impairment on gas assets. Net debt decreased by €700m ytd to reach €26.8bn, which is 3.18% better than consensus (net of hybrids), with a decrease in the effective interest rate to 3.0% from 3.14% in December 2014. The group will pay an interim dividend of €0.5 per share and confirmed its FY 2015 guidance: adjusted net income of between €2.85bn and €3.15bn and a dividend payout of 65-75% of the adjusted net income with a minimum payment of €1 per share. Furthermore, an agreement has been reached with the Belgian government confirming the extension life of two nuclear reactors (Doel 1 and 2). Furthermore, concerning the nuclear contribution settlements in dispute for overpaid nuclear taxes, the group has also achieved an agreement concerning the nuclear tax payments: €200m for 2015, €130m for 2016 and a 40% margin from 2017 onwards.
The restructuring of the group is gaining momentum. Engie has just acquired a 95% stake in SolaireDirect with 100% of the voting rights for something just below €200m. With this, the group becomes the leader in French solar power and increases its renewable footprint worldwide as SolaireDirect already has a presence in 15 different countries. The news follows the possible IPO of the group's Belgian generation production as it expects to list its Belgian nuclear assets under the Electrabel name.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Engie. We currently have 10 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
In light of the UK election, we highlight our favoured overseas earners, operators in defensive markets and those capable of taking market share, but our main topic is the structure of the UK employment market. The UK has the lowest unemployment rate since 1975 at 4.6%, and there are, consequently, fewer and fewer candidates to fill vacancies. This suggests recruitment companies may struggle to grow, but there are structural changes in the UK labour force that offer growth opportunities. Temporary labour continues to expand relative to the point in the economic cycle, its importance accelerating since 2008, and part-time labour has grown at twice the rate of full-time labour throughout both the last cycle and over the long term. There are, of course, specialist temporary recruiters, but the part-time market appears relatively untapped (at least by the quoted companies) despite being c.5x the size of the temporary segment in terms of numbers.
Companies: FOUR ACL BOOT CLL CMS CNCT FCRM LOK PPH RNWH SVCA STAF UTW WATR
Surface Transforms* (SCE): Progress headwinds (CORP) | Aukett Swanke* (AUK): Interim results (CORP) | Horizonte Minerals* (HZM): Awards further contracts for the feasibility study (CORP) | 7digital* (7DIG): Acquisition confirmed and major new contract (COR) | Accsys (AXS): A year of strong progress (BUY) | Shanta Gold (SHG): Fund raise, debt restructure and acquisition (U/R)
Companies: SCE AUK HZM 7DIG AXS SHG
Last Friday we reprised our successful speed dating format with excellent presentations from the CEOs of Access Intelligence, Corero Network Security, LiDCO Group, OrganOx and Yu Group. Each company gave a ten minute overview of its business and the investment case and we had quick-fire Q&A from a group of fund managers. Below we summarise our thoughts on each company, with more details inside, plus we include the slides presented by each management team. We believe all five companies have excellent potential and are happy to arrange further contact. We also look forward to setting up our next speed dating event.
Companies: ACC CNS LID YU/
As already announced, record FY17 profits have exceeded management expectations and growth was delivered with a strong cash performance and a sharp rise in the dividend. We have increased our EPS estimates marginally for 2018 with restrained growth expectations. As Trifast continues to deliver on its strategy, the 10% rating discount to peers should moderate.
Carador Income Fund (CIFU LN) Level of refinancing and reset activity remains high | Imagination Technologies Group (IMG LN) No progress with Apple; Whole group for sale | Uncovered Gems - Speed Dating Lunch Another five sparkling gems
Companies: IMG CIFU ACC CNS LID YU/
Flowtech Fluidpower* (FLO): Acquisition of Hi-Power (CORP) | SRT Marine Systems* (SRT): Somalia contract underpins forecasts (CORP)
Companies: Flowtech Fluidpower Srt Marine Systems
Flowtech has announced that it has acquired Hi-Power Limited, a distributor of hydraulic equipment components and systems design and build, serving the mobile and transport sectors across Eire and Northern Ireland. The acquisition strengthens the group’s Power Motion Control (PMC) division, deepens technical expertise and expands its core product offering, as well as establishing relationships with key European suppliers. This deal is the first acquisition since the Group’s £9.6m fund raise in March and comprises of an initial £1.9m consideration, representing 1.0x NAV, with a further £0.5m subject to an earn out over the 18 months to December 2018. We upgrade our forecasts for the Hi-Power acquisition with FY17 EPS +2.8%, reflecting six months trading contribution, and a 5.4% upgrade to FY18 EPS. On a PER of 10.4x the shares trade at a sizable 45% discount to sector peers. We expect the company to deploy its remaining financial firepower on further earningsaccretive deals, bringing into focus this valuation discrepancy. At current levels the shares also offer an attractive 4.3% dividend yield.
Companies: Flowtech Fluidpower
Good momentum is apparent in Severfield’s results, with healthy progress in revenue and margins in the UK and a profit contribution from the Indian JV. Our estimates now expect a sustained JV profit contribution (previously neutral) and, with unchanged UK expectations, Severfield is on track to double PBT between FY16 and FY20. All in all, we see a clear strategy that is being well executed against visible financial targets.
FFI Holdings— specialist in the provision of completion contracts to the entertainment industry for films, television, miniseries and streaming product. Offer TBA. Expected 30 June. QUIZ— omni-channel fast fashion womenswear Company intention to float. Due July 2017. Offer TBA Ethernity Networks—Schedule 1 from Israeli based specialist in data processing technology used in high end carrier ethernet applications across the telecom, mobile, security and data centre markets . Expected late June. Offer TBA. Jangada Mines—Schedule 1 advanced stage PGM exploration project containing what the Directors understand to be the largest PGM resource, as well as being the only pre-development PGM project, in South America. Offer TBA. Expected late June. Phoenix Global Mining— US Brown field copper play. Expected late June. Offer TBA Touchstone Exploration— Oil exploration and production company active in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. Interests of approximately 90,000 gross acres. Production c. 1,300 boepd. Raising £1.45m. Expected mkt cap £7.5m. Due 26 June. I3 Energy –Schedule 1. Independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK. Offer TBC, 7 June admission. Verditek— Schedule 1 update. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Issue price 10p. Admission late June Tiso Blackstar Group—Schedule 1 update. Media, entertainment and marketing solutions group/ £160m mkt cap. Admission only. Expected late June. sidential Secure Income - social housing REIT raising up to £300m Admission due c.12 July. ScotGems—Admission due 26 June. Seeking £50-£100m. To investing in a diversified portfolio of Small Cap Companies listed on global stock markets DP Eurasia—Intention to float from the exclusive master franchisee of the Domino's Pizza brand in Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Georgia . £20m primary raise plus a partial vendor sale. AIB—Intention to float from AIB, Ireland's leading retail and commercial bank . The Minister for Finance intends to sell approximately 25% of the Ordinary Shares of AIB. Valuation range €10.6-€13.3bn. Admission end June. Curzon Energy—Report on Proactive Investors of intended LSE float this year with acquisition of coal bed methane assets in Oregon. Looking to raise £3m plus. NLB Group—financial and banking institution based in Slovenia, with a network of 356 branches. Seeking Ljubliana Stock Exchange listing with GDRs on the LSE. Expected mid June. Kuwait Energy— $150m raise plus vendor offer. Admission due June. 2p reserves 810.0 mmboe
Companies: IDP SKIN IVO MSYS CTH SAR ARL PTSG MWE MAFL
In recent years, Chemring has been a graveyard for reputations. Today’s interims show that the new FD is leaving nothing to chance but at the same time offering a glimpse of what is possible. For instance, the £20m investment in working capital to improve supplier payments looks like a sensible move if the management wants to achieve operational excellence. There are still shortterm risks to FY2017 such as the requirement to extend the funding on the letter of credit for the 40mm ammunition contract offers. However, we believe that the management has a reasonable chance to become consistently predictable in an "under promise over deliver" way. We raise our TP to 216p reflecting the re-rating of the Aerospace and Defence sector.
Companies: Chemring Group
GYG—Intention to float by the superyacht painting, supply and maintenance company. Due 5 July. Raising £6.9m new plus vendor sale of £21.5m at 100p. Mkt Cap c. £47m. Revenue of €54.6m in FY16 and adjusted EBITDA of €6.7m. Greencoat Renewables - Schedule 1. Targeting a portfolio of operating renewable electricity generation assets, initially investing in wind generation assets in Ireland. Offer TBC. Due Mid July. FFI Holdings— Specialist in the provision of completion contracts to the entertainment industry for films, television, mini-series and streaming product. Offer TBA. Expected 30 June. QUIZ— Omni-channel fast fashion womenswear Company intention to float. Due July 2017. Offer TBA Ethernity Networks—Schedule 1 from Israeli based specialist in data processing technology used in high end carrier ethernet applications across the telecom, mobile, security and data centre markets. Expected late June. Offer TBA. Jangada Mines—Sch 1 advanced stage PGM exploration project containing what the Directors understand to be the largest PGM resource, and only pre-development PGM project, in South America. Offer TBA. Expected late June. Phoenix Global Mining— US Brown field copper play. Expected late June. Offer TBA Touchstone Exploration— Oil E&P company active in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. Interests of approximately 90k gross acres. Production c. 1.3k boepd. Raising £1.5m. Expected mkt cap £7.5m - 26 June. I3 Energy –Schedule 1. Independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK. Offer TBC, 7 June admission. Verditek— Schedule 1 update. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Issue price 10p. Admission late June Tiso Blackstar Group—Schedule 1 update. Media, entertainment and marketing solutions group/ £160m mkt cap. Admission only. Postponed. Rockpool Acquisitions—Northern Ireland based Company seeking strong NI acquisition with an international outlook. Raising £1.5m at 10p. Due 5 July. Residential Secure Income - social housing REIT raising up to £300m Admission due c.12 July. ScotGems—Admission due 26 June. Seeking £50-£100m. To investing in a diversified portfolio of Small Cap Companies listed on global stock markets DP Eurasia—Intention to float from the exclusive master franchisee of the Domino's Pizza brand in Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Georgia . £20m primary raise plus a partial vendor sale. AIB—Intention to float from AIB, Ireland's leading retail and commercial bank. The Minister for Finance intends to sell approximately 25% of the Ordinary Shares of AIB. Valuation range €10.6-€13.3bn. Admission end June. Curzon Energy—Report on Proactive Investors of intended LSE float this year with acquisition of coal bed methane assets in Oregon. Looking to raise £3m plus. NLB Group—financial and banking institution based in Slovenia, with a network of 356 branches. Seeking Ljubliana Stock Exchange listing with GDRs on the LSE. Expected mid June. Kuwait Energy— $150m raise plus vendor offer. Admission due June. 2p reserves 810.0 mmboe Supermarket Income REIT– Up to £200m raise to acquire a diversified portfolio of supermarket real estate assets in the UK, providing long-term RPI-linked income. Due 21 July.
Companies: VLS GSH EGI MSG FDEV UNG TND LTHM REDX CREO
Through a mixture of winning new outsourced logistics contracts, exposure to the substantially higher-growth e-commerce subsector and solid underlying market growth, we forecast that Eddie Stobart Logistics (ESL) will grow EBIT at 15.3% CAGR over the next three years. Since being taken private in 2014, ESL has brought in new management and grown earnings significantly. Listing on AIM in April 2017 enabled the company to pay down debt, make a small acquisition and set the business up for the next phase of expansion. Despite its sector-leading operations and outlook, ESL trades at a discount to its global peers. We believe it should trade at least in line and our fundamentals-based valuation per share of 200p offers equity holders upside of 26%.
Companies: Eddie Stobart Logistics
Today’s AGM update reflects an improvement in Q1 over a disappointing comparable period. Trading profit has improved, benefitting from cost savings undertaken. Shipbroking has performed well in Q1 and Technical has seen a modest improvement, helped by cost savings. Regarding the outlook, the improvement in Q1 is encouraging, although end markets remain challenging. Full year expectations remain unchanged. We are forecasting FY2018E PBT of £7.9m, EPS of 21.7p and a 15p dividend. We retain our Buy and 400p TP.
Companies: Braemar Shipping Services
The FY17 prelims confirm Fulcrum has progressed to its growth phase as it develops the top line. FY17 results were significant with PBT growth of 51%, DPS growth of 111%, a net cash balance of £12.6m and a 39% increase in the order book. We expect PBT growth of 14% and 9% in FY18 and FY19 as it evolves into a multi-utility infrastructure service provider and grows its annuity income. EBITDA margins are set to expand from 19.3% in FY17 to over 21% by FY20 and the cash position will finance a growing dividend with the yield expected to reach c5% by FY20. We initiate with a buy recommendation and price target of 66p.
Companies: Fulcrum Utility Services