Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Engie. We currently have 11 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Engie reported an encouraging set of results for the first half, showing an acceleration of organic growth during the second quarter after the weak Q1. H1 revenues rose by 1.6% to €33.1bn (+2.6% org.). EBITDA was flat at €5.0bn (+4.0% org.), while net recurring income amounted to €1.5bn, a 4.2% increase (+15.5% org.). The group continued to improve its financial structure with a net debt reduction of €2.1bn ytd (corresponding to €22.7bn in net debt) on the back of the portfolio rotation programme. The interim dividend came to €0.35/share, to be paid in October 2017. Following the positive H1 results, management confirmed its FY2017 financial targets: Net recurring income of €2.4-2.6bn, expected at mid-range Net debt/EBITDA ratio <2.5x Cash dividend of €0.70/share with respect to 2017 Note, the disposal of the E&P activities is now treated as discontinued operations, with retroactive impacts on the P&L and cash flow statements. Thus, the 2016 figures have been entirely restated.
Engie has published its Q1-17 trading update. The figures were below expectations as, despite the 3.2% increase in revenues to €19.5bn, EBITDA declined by 3.6% to €3.3bn and operating income declined by 4.6% to €2.2bn mainly driven by low hydro production in France and the shutdown of one nuclear reactor since September 2016. The earnings results were below market expectations. Despite the weak Q1 earnings performance, the group confirmed the full year guidance (EBITDA of €10.7-11.3bn and net income of €2.4-2.6bn) as the first quarter was impacted by multiple timing impacts. However, the company’s financial situation is seeing a substantial improvement as net debt decreased by 17.7% ytd with positive operating cash flows, improving the credit ratios. This positive effect was visible despite the decrease in earnings.
The company has presented poor results, but with decreases that are lower than expected. Revenues decreased 4.6% yoy to €66.6bn, EBITDA was down 5.2% yoy to €10.7bn with a 2.7% yoy decrease organically, and adjusted net income at €2.5bn (-4.3% yoy). On a reported basis, the group finished once again in the red with reported net income at -€0.4bn driven by €3.8bn of impairments in power plants, nuclear assets and merchant activities. The dividend is maintained within expectations at €1/share for 2016 and €0.7/share for 2017 and 2018. The good news comes from the guidance, as the group expects to return to growth with EBITDA reaching €10.7-11.3bn and net income in the €2.4-2.6bn range, despite the erosion effect from the disposal of assets already achieved.
Engie, through a consortium with the Saudi Electric Company (SEC) and Saudi Aramco, has won a contract to build a 1.5GW cogeneration power plant using CCGT technology in Saudi Arabia For a total investment of $1.2bn, this would take the achieved cost of the project to $1.25m/MW, which is extremely competitive. Engie would hold a 40% stake in the project, with SEC holding 30% and Saudi Aramco the remaining 30%, which implies that Engie would have a $480m investment envelope in the project. The construction contract is attached to two 20-year contracts, whereby SEC would buy the electricity and Saudi Aramco would buy the steam and hot water produced, reducing the exposure of the project to wholesale price movements, although the achieved price for the contracts have not been disclosed. The power plant is expected to be commissioned in 2019, with the operation and maintenance of the power plant being transferred to SEC in 2018.
Engie has published its 9M trading update with revenue falling 11.1% yoy and 10.3% in organic terms ro reach €47.5bn, with EBITDA falling 5.4% yoy and -2% organically to €7.7bn. Nevertheless, operating cash flows decreased by 8.3% yoy to €6.8bn. Net debt fell by €1.9bn (-6.8% ytd), but the net debt/EBITDA ratio improved (2.38x). The results were negatively affected by commodity prices and compensated by higher infrastructure tariffs. The group confirmed its 2016 financial targets: adjusted net income group at the low end of the range of €2.4-2.7bn and EBITDA of €10.8-11.4bn.
The difficult half year of the group has been confirmed, mainly at the top-line level as it misses expectations with revenues decreasing 11.9% yoy to €33.5bn. However, the impact has been reduced due to an optimisation of the cost base with EBITDA reaching €5,651m (-7.8% yoy), mainly affected by lower commodity prices (with achieved prices), and a reduction in gas margins. Lower depreciation expenses and a reduction in impairment charges were achieved so that the operating profit increased 5.2% yoy to €3.38bn, pushing upwards in its path net income to an 11.3% yoy increase to €1,237m. On an adjusted basis, operating profit fell by 3.5% yoy to €3.5bn, providing a 1.9% organic growth, while net income decreased by 7% yoy to €1.5bn, which is in line with expectations. A €0.5/share interim dividend in cash will be paid. On the cash flow side, on top of lower earnings, the group had a negative one-off of €1.1bn of margin calls and derivatives which plunged the operating cash flow towards a 32% yoy decrease to €4.79bn. The decrease, added to the 9.6% yoy increase in capex and besides the €1.45bn from disposals and the repayment of €1.43bn of outstanding debt, made free cash flow finish in negative territory at -€657m. Despite the difficult results, the group has confirmed the full-year results with EBITDA at €10.8–11.4bn and adjusted net income in the €2.4-2.7bn range. Following the new strategy of the company, Engie has a new segment reporting in line with the new organisational structure.
Engie has provided mixed results as revenues reached €18.9bn, which is a 14.3% yoy decrease and falls short of expectations by 12%. However, given the conditions, EBITDA was strong as it fell by 1.7% yoy to €3.5bn, although on an adjusted basis it grew 2.3% where the positive results were supported by the restart of 3 reactors in Belgium and cost-cutting measures, which is in line with consensus. Moreover, operating income increased 0.4% yoy to €2.4bn and +5.9% on an adjusted basis, beating forecasts by 2%. On the other hand, operating cash flows decreased by 55% yoy, but this was mainly driven by WC movements due to the use of derivatives to cover the fall in commodity prices, and higher gas inventories. It is expected that the negative WC movements will be reversed over the year. Net debt decreased by €0.7bn due to cash generation and the first effects of the disposal programme. Following this publication, the group confirmed all its FY16 guidance: EBITDA between €10.8bn and €11.4bn, adjusted net income between €2.4bn and €2.7bn, a 2.5x net debt/EBITDA ratio and an A credit rating and a €1/share dividend to be paid in cash. The group has confirmed its intention to issue an IPO on Electrabel in 2017 (the Belgian subsidiary). The process has been started as the separation of the management of the subsidiary has already been achieved and the group is currently in legally creating an independent and separate entity.
Weak top-line performance as both revenues and EBITDA miss estimates. Revenues decreased 6.4% yoy to €69.88bn, 4% short of the forecast, with EBITDA having a similar decrease as sales (-6.6% yoy), missing forecasts by 1.2%. Adjusted operating income decreased by 11.6% yoy to €6.32bn, but the 4% fall is less dramatic than expected; however, on a reported basis it finished in negative territory due to impairments (-€8.7bn) and restructuring costs (-€870m), pushing the reported EBIT into negative territory to -€3.24bn. Due to this, the company had a reported net loss of -€4.62bn but, on an adjusted basis, net income reached €2.6bn, representing a €17% yoy decrease, 1% above estimates. Cash flows remained strong despite the decrease in EBITDA, as operating cash flows increased by 18.6% yoy helped by a substantial improvement in working capital (+€1.16bn). The improvement allowed Engie to cover a 58% increase in net capex and its dividend payments. A €1/share dividend has been proposed, to be paid in cash with a similar one expected for 2016, while dividends have been cut for 2017 and 2018 to €0.7/share to provide investors with visibility during the transition process. A radical transformation process has been put in place with €15bn of asset disposals, an increase in investment objectives, in addition to a move towards a lighter capital-intensive model with a more decentralised approach. On 2016 guidance, the group expects to achieve EBITDA between €10.8bn and €11.4bn with net income between €2.4bn and €2.7bn. An A credit rating is targeted with a 2.5x net debt/EBITDA ratio.
The Q3 trading update has confirmed that 2015 is a difficult year for the group. Sales fell by 1.5% ytd to €53.5bn and -4.6% on an organic basis. Gas and LNG revenues decreased by 38% ytd and Europe by 2.1% ytd, offset by strong performances in International (+10.4%), Infrastructure (+7.7%) and Energy services (4.1%). EBITDA reached €8.1bn, a 7.5% ytd decrease, mainly due to lower power and commodity prices and the effects on E&P and LNG activities, in addition to the unavailability of Belgium nuclear plants. Despite this, operating cash flow remains strong at €7.4bn, 8% above the previous year's levels, being able to withstand the capex increase. Nevertheless, investment has been adjusted to growth opportunities, as there has been a further reduction of €200m in E&P (an additional 10% decrease). Impairments are expected on the FY results due to worsening market conditions, with a downward adjustment of the carrying values of certain assets, although the amount has not been stated. However, it is important to remember the group has a robust balance sheet, one of the strongest in the sector. The group maintains its full-year guidance: EBITDA between €11.5bn and €12bn and adjusted net income €2.75-3.05bn, although it now expects the latter towards the lower end of the range. The dividend policy is maintained, with no objective to change it as cash flow generation remains strong.
Less dramatic than expected H1 results, as the group continues to feel the downward pressure from both electricity and commodity markets. Revenues decreased 2% yoy to €38.52bn, which is in line with expectations. EBITDA decreased by 4.79% yoy to €6.12bn, although the decrease is less than expected. The operating profit of the group decreased by 13% yoy to €3.61bn, but is still 4% above consensus. But the best results are provided on the bottom line, as adjusted net income reached €1.8bn, which was a 28.2% yoy decrease, but still 20.2% above consensus. The reported net income nonetheless reached €1.11bn due to the €700m impairment on gas assets. Net debt decreased by €700m ytd to reach €26.8bn, which is 3.18% better than consensus (net of hybrids), with a decrease in the effective interest rate to 3.0% from 3.14% in December 2014. The group will pay an interim dividend of €0.5 per share and confirmed its FY 2015 guidance: adjusted net income of between €2.85bn and €3.15bn and a dividend payout of 65-75% of the adjusted net income with a minimum payment of €1 per share. Furthermore, an agreement has been reached with the Belgian government confirming the extension life of two nuclear reactors (Doel 1 and 2). Furthermore, concerning the nuclear contribution settlements in dispute for overpaid nuclear taxes, the group has also achieved an agreement concerning the nuclear tax payments: €200m for 2015, €130m for 2016 and a 40% margin from 2017 onwards.
The restructuring of the group is gaining momentum. Engie has just acquired a 95% stake in SolaireDirect with 100% of the voting rights for something just below €200m. With this, the group becomes the leader in French solar power and increases its renewable footprint worldwide as SolaireDirect already has a presence in 15 different countries. The news follows the possible IPO of the group's Belgian generation production as it expects to list its Belgian nuclear assets under the Electrabel name.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Engie. We currently have 11 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Since its inception in 2010, the Panmure Gordon Conviction List has outperformed the market, returning 278% against a Small Companies index that would have returned 232% over the same period. Our Q4 portfolio reflects our view that the UK equity market stands to benefit from a coordinated upturn in global growth. Low nominal fixed income spreads continue to provide a valuation underpin for global equities. There are increasing signs that the world’s central bankers are making a concerted effort to wean markets off near zero interest rates. However with global debt exceeding 200% of GDP and unfavorable demographic trends, we think their chances of rapid progress are slim.
Companies: CPI CTH CINE JE MJW NOG RPC VM/ XAR
Augean (AUG LN) Board changes and reduction in expectations | First Derivatives (FDP LN) Agreement with European Space Agency | Futura Medical (FUM LN) Market research supports the commercial potential of Eroxon® | Low & Bonar (LWB LN) Civil Engineering struggling | Sinclair Pharma (SPH LN) Forecast update; profitability inflection and strong growth ahead
Companies: AUG SPH LWB FUM FDP
Flowtech Fluidpower* (FLO): HES acquisition for PMC, good EPS uplift (CORP) | Independent Oil & Gas* (IOG): CPR upgrade for SNS portfolio (CORP) | Atalaya Mining (ATYM): Q3 operating results (BUY)
Companies: FLO IOG ATYM
Totally (TLY) - Sch 1 for £11m RTO of Vocare, a provider of integrated urgent care services to the NHS throughout the UK. . £76.8 million rev in the year ended 31 March 2017. Totally to address Care Quality Commission concerns. Due 24 Oct. | Central Asia Metals (CAML) -RTO of Lynx Resources. Anticipated market capitalisation at Admission: £404.8m. Raising £113m at 230p. Acquiring the SASA zinc-lead mine in Macedonia from Solway Industries. Due 15 Dec. | Springfield Properties—Scottish housebuilder. “Our turnover exceeded £100 million for the first time this year and now we employ around 500 people. This IPO is the next step in our growth.” Expected Mid October. Offer TBA. | OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m. | Orogen plc, to be renamed Sosandar plc on Admission. Sosander is an online womenswear brand specifically targeted at a generation of women who have graduated from younger online and high street brands, and are looking for affordable clothing with a premium, trend-led aesthetic. Offer to raise £5.3m with market cap of £16.1m, expected 2 November 2017 | OG Graphite, brownfield development-stage graphite company focused on the reactivation of its wholly-owned Kearney natural flake graphite mine and mill located 280 km north of Toronto, Canada. Offer TBA, expected late october | SolGold—Publication of prospectus regarding transfer from AIM. Due 6 Oct | ContourGlobal LP— contracted wholesale power generation businesses, with 69 thermal and renewable power generation assets in Europe, Latin America and Africa. In the year ended 31 December 2016 it generated $905.2 million of combined revenue and $440.4 million of Adjusted EBITDA. Raising c.$400m. Expected November. | TI Fluid Systems—Maybe second time lucky? Pulled last October. global manufacturer of automotive fluid storage, carrying and delivery systems seeking to raise €425m to reduce financial leverage (to approximately 2.0x net debt to Adjusted EBITDA by the end of FY 2017). Possible partial sale by Bain. Revenue for FY 2016 was €3.3 billion and Adjusted EBIT was €362.1 million | M7 Multi-Let REIT—Intends to raise up to £300m at 100p. Aims to acquire and hold a portfolio of UK regional light industrial and regional office assets diversified by geography, asset type and tenants that is expected to generate stable income returns and, where appropriate, offer the potential to leverage and enhance returns through active asset management initiatives. Due 13 Nov. | Bakkavor Group - Provider of fresh prepared food intends to float in November. FY 16 Revenue: £1,763.6 million FY 16 Adjusted EBITDA: £146.4 million (13.7% CAGR FY 14-FY 16). Part vendor sale and primary raise of c. £100m. Price TBA. | Russia’s En+, owned by Russian aluminium tycoon Oleg Deripaska, has assets in metals and energy, including hydropower. reported to be seeking dual London and Moscow listing raising $1.5bn | TMF Group , which provides tax, admin and legal support services, reported to be seeking London IPO to raise c. £200m | People’s Investment Trust—Objective of sustainable wealth creation. Also to list on the Social Stock Exchange. Targeting £125m raise on 17 Oct. No performance fees or executive bonuses in order to focus on long term rather than short term performance.
Companies: DKE WDC FLO XLM NKTN APQ GEO POLR AEG BSE
Further evidence that the shrewder investor prefers a smaller company, the Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Professor Thaler, an avowed fan of the smaller brethren. Back down to earth, all markets continue to make headway, with the smaller company indices continuing to lead the way. Despite the apparent deadlock in the Brexit process, life appears to carry on. The MPC meeting on 2 November and the Budget on 22 November may offer greater insight. In Share News & Views, we comment on recent updates from Cropper*, Halstead, Norcros, Tricorn* Walker Greenbank and Wincanton.
Companies: APC BMS CRPR ECSC EUSP FDM GETB PCF PPIX SNX SPRP SQS TCN W7L
Bioventix* (BVXP): FY 2017 results – a year of transition ahead (CORP) | Acal (ACL): Strong H1 puts positive pressure on consensus (BUY) | Omega Diagnostics* (ODX): New supply agreement in US for FoodPrint (CORP)
Companies: BVXP ACL ODX
Flowtech Fluidpower* (FLO): Q3 trading update confirms good organic growth (CORP) | President Energy* (PPC): Puesto Flores – first oil delivery and revenue (CORP) | dotDigital* (DOTD): 2H acceleration: progress on every front (CORP) | Orchard Funding* (ORCH): Insuretech winning (CORP)
Companies: FLO PPC DOTD ORCH
Since 2013, Fulcrum’s share price has risen from 5p, peaked at 66p in February 2017 before falling back to its current level. The latest trading statement highlights two new areas for potential upgrades 1) acceleration in the rate of investment in the ownership of gas assets and 2) the imminent award of an Ofgem licence to own and operate electricity assets. We calculate the EBITDA in FY20 could be increased by as much as 5% as a result of these initiatives implying a PE rating of 14x and dividend yield of 5%. Given the recent underperformance and potential for upgrades we maintain our buy recommendation with the price target unchanged at 66p.
Companies: Fulcrum Utility Services
Flowtech has announced its fifth major acquisition and sixth in total this year. Group HES Ltd has been acquired to continue the build out the PMC division adding c. £10.0m in revenue. This follows the recent addition to the division of Hydraulic Group BV, the first acquisition by the current management team in mainland Europe. On a normalised basis, Flowtech has paid c.6x trailing EBITDA, in line with its stated strategy and other completed deals. The £4.1m consideration is being settled with £3.1m in cash and £1.0m in shares, equating to the issue of c.670k new shares. Forecasts increase reflecting the addition of HES with revenue increasing c.12% and PBT c.7% in both FY18 and FY19. Flowtech continues to trade at a discount to other UK listed distributors at sub 10x FY18 earnings, the first year the full earnings impact of today’s acquisition will be felt. Should the valuation discrepancy continue as the business grows Flowtech could become an attractive acquisition target for a larger distributor.
Companies: Flowtech Fluidpower
Norcros’s H118 pre close update flagged group revenue and EBIT in line with management’s full year growth expectations. The period end net debt figure – after some exceptional costs – was also where we expected it to be. Both divisions are achieving good revenue growth without much help from their respective markets and profitability should follow. The rating is yet to give credit for the achievement of this self-generated progress.
We note yesterday's fall in the share price, which pulled back close to the levels at the time of the AGM. The AGM update was very upbeat and potentially signalled overly conservative forecast assumptions. In our view the fall is overdone given significant strategic advances at the company over 2 years, and unassailable barriers to entry in terms of its physical remarketing and data platform. Market nerves around residual pricing risk are misplaced; BCA is price agnostic and historically defensive. Indeed movements in residual price can, and recently did, drive additional remarketing volumes to which BCA’s success is actually linked. As detailed in earlier research, there are several structural forces at play which are increasing volumes through exchanges, especially the market leader BCA. We expect the interims on 30 Nov to vindicate the key points of our Buy stance which we presented in our preview note dated 15 Sept. In essence several variables could facilitate stronger growth than the market currently forecasts, e.g. higher volumes, take-up of add-on services and related profits, and benefits of operational leverage. The move to a Premium listing on Monday will also mark a key milestone and pave the way to FTSE250 inclusion in Dec. Having fallen 30% below our recently increased target price, we argue the fall offers an excellent entry point.
Companies: BCA Marketplace
Hot on the heels of its recent US acquisition, XP Power’s trading update confirms that strong trading continued into Q3. Q3 revenues were 35% higher than a year ago, with nine-month revenues up 34% y-o-y and 21% in constant currency. We revise up our revenue forecasts to reflect much stronger than expected trading in Q3, which results in normalised EPS upgrades of 5.7% in FY17e and 7.1% in FY18e.
Companies: XP Power
Disappointing demand in Civil Engineering (CE) markets causes us to reduce earnings estimates. Despite this, FY17 is expected to show good progress overall although the reduction in net debt from the half year will now be less than previously anticipated. Good underlying performances from three business units are being partly obscured by CE. Resolving this is likely to benefit group valuation in our view.
Companies: Low & Bonar
The group’s pre-close interim trading update highlights mixed trading and that the board’s expectation is now slightly below the lower end of previous market estimates. TT has traded in line with expectations, while Chain has seen raw material price increases and machinery breakdowns in Germany. We are downgrading by £0.5m to give a PBT of £15.7m, with a 3.4% reduction in EPS to 5.0p. This is a disappointing statement; while the press breakdown should be a temporary problem, sales price increases remain an issue to work through in the second half. With a heavy H2 weighting in profits, we therefore reduce our price target to 50p and moving our rating from Buy to Hold.
In our fifth lunch in this popular format, we were pleased to welcome last Friday the management teams of Creightons, Fishing Republic, Lighthouse Group and Symphony Environmental – four companies we deem to be less well-known than they deserve. Each company gave a ten minute overview of its business and the investment case and we had quick-fire Q&A from a group of fund managers. Below we summarise our thoughts on each company, with more details inside, plus we include the slides presented by each management team. All four companies have very interesting potential and we are happy to arrange further contact.
Companies: FISH LGT SYM