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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Engie. We currently have 12 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Engie’s Q3 results are slightly better than expected with adjusted revenues (including E&P as discounted operations) at €46.8bn for the nine months, which implies a 2.9% increase. In line with revenue growth, the company achieved a +3.8% increase in the adjusted EBITDA to €6.6bn. The group maintains its full-year guidance with adjusted net income of €2.4-2.6bn in the mid-range of the target. EBITDA, on the other hand, is expected to be in the lower range of expectations. The group has confirmed the disposal of its LNG upstream and midstream activities to Total for $2.04bn, including an earn-out of up to $550m. Engie will keep the downstream activities, including regasification infrastructure and retail customer sales. The completion of the deal is expected in 2018.
Engie reported an encouraging set of results for the first half, showing an acceleration of organic growth during the second quarter after the weak Q1. H1 revenues rose by 1.6% to €33.1bn (+2.6% org.). EBITDA was flat at €5.0bn (+4.0% org.), while net recurring income amounted to €1.5bn, a 4.2% increase (+15.5% org.). The group continued to improve its financial structure with a net debt reduction of €2.1bn ytd (corresponding to €22.7bn in net debt) on the back of the portfolio rotation programme. The interim dividend came to €0.35/share, to be paid in October 2017. Following the positive H1 results, management confirmed its FY2017 financial targets: Net recurring income of €2.4-2.6bn, expected at mid-range Net debt/EBITDA ratio <2.5x Cash dividend of €0.70/share with respect to 2017 Note, the disposal of the E&P activities is now treated as discontinued operations, with retroactive impacts on the P&L and cash flow statements. Thus, the 2016 figures have been entirely restated.
Engie has published its Q1-17 trading update. The figures were below expectations as, despite the 3.2% increase in revenues to €19.5bn, EBITDA declined by 3.6% to €3.3bn and operating income declined by 4.6% to €2.2bn mainly driven by low hydro production in France and the shutdown of one nuclear reactor since September 2016. The earnings results were below market expectations. Despite the weak Q1 earnings performance, the group confirmed the full year guidance (EBITDA of €10.7-11.3bn and net income of €2.4-2.6bn) as the first quarter was impacted by multiple timing impacts. However, the company’s financial situation is seeing a substantial improvement as net debt decreased by 17.7% ytd with positive operating cash flows, improving the credit ratios. This positive effect was visible despite the decrease in earnings.
The company has presented poor results, but with decreases that are lower than expected. Revenues decreased 4.6% yoy to €66.6bn, EBITDA was down 5.2% yoy to €10.7bn with a 2.7% yoy decrease organically, and adjusted net income at €2.5bn (-4.3% yoy). On a reported basis, the group finished once again in the red with reported net income at -€0.4bn driven by €3.8bn of impairments in power plants, nuclear assets and merchant activities. The dividend is maintained within expectations at €1/share for 2016 and €0.7/share for 2017 and 2018. The good news comes from the guidance, as the group expects to return to growth with EBITDA reaching €10.7-11.3bn and net income in the €2.4-2.6bn range, despite the erosion effect from the disposal of assets already achieved.
Engie, through a consortium with the Saudi Electric Company (SEC) and Saudi Aramco, has won a contract to build a 1.5GW cogeneration power plant using CCGT technology in Saudi Arabia For a total investment of $1.2bn, this would take the achieved cost of the project to $1.25m/MW, which is extremely competitive. Engie would hold a 40% stake in the project, with SEC holding 30% and Saudi Aramco the remaining 30%, which implies that Engie would have a $480m investment envelope in the project. The construction contract is attached to two 20-year contracts, whereby SEC would buy the electricity and Saudi Aramco would buy the steam and hot water produced, reducing the exposure of the project to wholesale price movements, although the achieved price for the contracts have not been disclosed. The power plant is expected to be commissioned in 2019, with the operation and maintenance of the power plant being transferred to SEC in 2018.
Engie has published its 9M trading update with revenue falling 11.1% yoy and 10.3% in organic terms ro reach €47.5bn, with EBITDA falling 5.4% yoy and -2% organically to €7.7bn. Nevertheless, operating cash flows decreased by 8.3% yoy to €6.8bn. Net debt fell by €1.9bn (-6.8% ytd), but the net debt/EBITDA ratio improved (2.38x). The results were negatively affected by commodity prices and compensated by higher infrastructure tariffs. The group confirmed its 2016 financial targets: adjusted net income group at the low end of the range of €2.4-2.7bn and EBITDA of €10.8-11.4bn.
The difficult half year of the group has been confirmed, mainly at the top-line level as it misses expectations with revenues decreasing 11.9% yoy to €33.5bn. However, the impact has been reduced due to an optimisation of the cost base with EBITDA reaching €5,651m (-7.8% yoy), mainly affected by lower commodity prices (with achieved prices), and a reduction in gas margins. Lower depreciation expenses and a reduction in impairment charges were achieved so that the operating profit increased 5.2% yoy to €3.38bn, pushing upwards in its path net income to an 11.3% yoy increase to €1,237m. On an adjusted basis, operating profit fell by 3.5% yoy to €3.5bn, providing a 1.9% organic growth, while net income decreased by 7% yoy to €1.5bn, which is in line with expectations. A €0.5/share interim dividend in cash will be paid. On the cash flow side, on top of lower earnings, the group had a negative one-off of €1.1bn of margin calls and derivatives which plunged the operating cash flow towards a 32% yoy decrease to €4.79bn. The decrease, added to the 9.6% yoy increase in capex and besides the €1.45bn from disposals and the repayment of €1.43bn of outstanding debt, made free cash flow finish in negative territory at -€657m. Despite the difficult results, the group has confirmed the full-year results with EBITDA at €10.8–11.4bn and adjusted net income in the €2.4-2.7bn range. Following the new strategy of the company, Engie has a new segment reporting in line with the new organisational structure.
Engie has provided mixed results as revenues reached €18.9bn, which is a 14.3% yoy decrease and falls short of expectations by 12%. However, given the conditions, EBITDA was strong as it fell by 1.7% yoy to €3.5bn, although on an adjusted basis it grew 2.3% where the positive results were supported by the restart of 3 reactors in Belgium and cost-cutting measures, which is in line with consensus. Moreover, operating income increased 0.4% yoy to €2.4bn and +5.9% on an adjusted basis, beating forecasts by 2%. On the other hand, operating cash flows decreased by 55% yoy, but this was mainly driven by WC movements due to the use of derivatives to cover the fall in commodity prices, and higher gas inventories. It is expected that the negative WC movements will be reversed over the year. Net debt decreased by €0.7bn due to cash generation and the first effects of the disposal programme. Following this publication, the group confirmed all its FY16 guidance: EBITDA between €10.8bn and €11.4bn, adjusted net income between €2.4bn and €2.7bn, a 2.5x net debt/EBITDA ratio and an A credit rating and a €1/share dividend to be paid in cash. The group has confirmed its intention to issue an IPO on Electrabel in 2017 (the Belgian subsidiary). The process has been started as the separation of the management of the subsidiary has already been achieved and the group is currently in legally creating an independent and separate entity.
Weak top-line performance as both revenues and EBITDA miss estimates. Revenues decreased 6.4% yoy to €69.88bn, 4% short of the forecast, with EBITDA having a similar decrease as sales (-6.6% yoy), missing forecasts by 1.2%. Adjusted operating income decreased by 11.6% yoy to €6.32bn, but the 4% fall is less dramatic than expected; however, on a reported basis it finished in negative territory due to impairments (-€8.7bn) and restructuring costs (-€870m), pushing the reported EBIT into negative territory to -€3.24bn. Due to this, the company had a reported net loss of -€4.62bn but, on an adjusted basis, net income reached €2.6bn, representing a €17% yoy decrease, 1% above estimates. Cash flows remained strong despite the decrease in EBITDA, as operating cash flows increased by 18.6% yoy helped by a substantial improvement in working capital (+€1.16bn). The improvement allowed Engie to cover a 58% increase in net capex and its dividend payments. A €1/share dividend has been proposed, to be paid in cash with a similar one expected for 2016, while dividends have been cut for 2017 and 2018 to €0.7/share to provide investors with visibility during the transition process. A radical transformation process has been put in place with €15bn of asset disposals, an increase in investment objectives, in addition to a move towards a lighter capital-intensive model with a more decentralised approach. On 2016 guidance, the group expects to achieve EBITDA between €10.8bn and €11.4bn with net income between €2.4bn and €2.7bn. An A credit rating is targeted with a 2.5x net debt/EBITDA ratio.
The Q3 trading update has confirmed that 2015 is a difficult year for the group. Sales fell by 1.5% ytd to €53.5bn and -4.6% on an organic basis. Gas and LNG revenues decreased by 38% ytd and Europe by 2.1% ytd, offset by strong performances in International (+10.4%), Infrastructure (+7.7%) and Energy services (4.1%). EBITDA reached €8.1bn, a 7.5% ytd decrease, mainly due to lower power and commodity prices and the effects on E&P and LNG activities, in addition to the unavailability of Belgium nuclear plants. Despite this, operating cash flow remains strong at €7.4bn, 8% above the previous year's levels, being able to withstand the capex increase. Nevertheless, investment has been adjusted to growth opportunities, as there has been a further reduction of €200m in E&P (an additional 10% decrease). Impairments are expected on the FY results due to worsening market conditions, with a downward adjustment of the carrying values of certain assets, although the amount has not been stated. However, it is important to remember the group has a robust balance sheet, one of the strongest in the sector. The group maintains its full-year guidance: EBITDA between €11.5bn and €12bn and adjusted net income €2.75-3.05bn, although it now expects the latter towards the lower end of the range. The dividend policy is maintained, with no objective to change it as cash flow generation remains strong.
Less dramatic than expected H1 results, as the group continues to feel the downward pressure from both electricity and commodity markets. Revenues decreased 2% yoy to €38.52bn, which is in line with expectations. EBITDA decreased by 4.79% yoy to €6.12bn, although the decrease is less than expected. The operating profit of the group decreased by 13% yoy to €3.61bn, but is still 4% above consensus. But the best results are provided on the bottom line, as adjusted net income reached €1.8bn, which was a 28.2% yoy decrease, but still 20.2% above consensus. The reported net income nonetheless reached €1.11bn due to the €700m impairment on gas assets. Net debt decreased by €700m ytd to reach €26.8bn, which is 3.18% better than consensus (net of hybrids), with a decrease in the effective interest rate to 3.0% from 3.14% in December 2014. The group will pay an interim dividend of €0.5 per share and confirmed its FY 2015 guidance: adjusted net income of between €2.85bn and €3.15bn and a dividend payout of 65-75% of the adjusted net income with a minimum payment of €1 per share. Furthermore, an agreement has been reached with the Belgian government confirming the extension life of two nuclear reactors (Doel 1 and 2). Furthermore, concerning the nuclear contribution settlements in dispute for overpaid nuclear taxes, the group has also achieved an agreement concerning the nuclear tax payments: €200m for 2015, €130m for 2016 and a 40% margin from 2017 onwards.
The restructuring of the group is gaining momentum. Engie has just acquired a 95% stake in SolaireDirect with 100% of the voting rights for something just below €200m. With this, the group becomes the leader in French solar power and increases its renewable footprint worldwide as SolaireDirect already has a presence in 15 different countries. The news follows the possible IPO of the group's Belgian generation production as it expects to list its Belgian nuclear assets under the Electrabel name.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Engie. We currently have 12 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
The final results were in line with expectations and ongoing strong cash generation led to a 32% increase in the full year dividend to 19.0p, 14% ahead of forecast. We retain our FY18 forecasts, other than cash and dividend expectations which are both increased. Net cash is now up to £14.1m and we expect this to drive ongoing strong growth in dividends, with the prospective yield now a healthy 4.4%.
Since April, our growth style screen has performed very strongly, outperforming the main small-cap index by 20pp and 24pp on an unweighted and weighted basis respectively, also comfortably outpacing microcap. In this note we provide more detail on the constituent and basket performance in the period and present the new screen constituents. As usual we focus on 10 of the current constituents, providing brief summaries and financials for clients to consider. We will refresh again in 5-6 months time and report back on performance.
Companies: SUN DOTD ERGO TEF AVG SOG COR FEN LOOP YU/
At our 3D Printing and Advanced Manufacturing lunch on Monday three companies updated us on the developments and significant opportunities for their business in this exciting new area. We were pleased to welcome speakers from Xaar, Victrex and unlisted group Metalysis. Each company gave a 15-20 minute overview of their existing activities in 3D printing and how they are continuing to develop their offer to capitalise on the strong growth and value creation opportunities ahead. Brief summaries are listed below, with more details inside, along with the slides presented by each company. All three of the groups have strong prospects and we are happy to arrange further contact.
Companies: Xaar Victrex
Topic of the quarter: It’s alive! Infrastructure and assets in general have traditionally been built to provide a fixed service and are maintained and renovated to a fixed schedule – dead and dumb. Technology will completely change this. Sensors and wireless networks have the potential to allow assets to ‘talk’ to us. These living, smart assets will be able to tell us when they need maintenance, how efficient they are being and provide the data that will directly influence their construction, availability and use. The implications for construction costs through to operating costs and the ability to service changing user needs are very significant. The Support Services, Construction and Technology sectors need to work together to maximise this potential, recognise and harness the power of data, and invest in and embrace change. These are daunting challenges in highly competitive markets where politics play a role, different skill sets (that are currently in short supply) are needed and shareholders are looking over management's shoulders. However, the prize for those companies who get it right is significant, and the risk from not changing much greater. There are positive early signs with Crossrail providing tangible examples of Smart Infrastructure using innovative sensors.
Companies: FOUR ACL BOOT CLL CNCT FCRM LOK PPH RNWH STAF UTW WATR VANL WYG
Strong H118 results and positive order book development cause us to raise estimates, especially for the current year with better dividend prospects also. UK economic uncertainty will provide challenges but we believe that Severfield’s sector diversity and some pipeline project opportunities should allow the company to continue to grow. Further order book gains and the application of surplus cash balances (via investment or distribution) can be catalysts for further share price recovery.
We believe that the share price weakness in recent weeks has brought the shares firmly into buying territory. Currency movements will provide a favourable tailwind with sterling strengthening vs the dollar and remaining relatively subdued vs the euro. Last month’s site visit confirmed that plans are well advanced for Flex to start supplying when the manufacturing and distribution agreements with Newell terminate on 31 March 2018. Investors can currently receive a 5% dividend yield and strong forecast profit growth.
Companies: Sprue Aegis
Since August, Augean has released four updates and in the process lost 28p or 50% in value. Two of the updates related to HMRC landfill tax assessments, one was for the interims and the remainder related to a profit warning and changes on the Board. The first HMRC tax assessment accounted for 86% of the decline with the remaining three having little or no impact. From this it is clear that the share price is being weighed down by the potential tax liability and this, we argue, needs to be addressed before we see any material share price appreciation, regardless of the operational improvements introduced by the new management team.
This quarter we use finnCap’s Slide Rule to provide both top-down and bottom-up analysis of the UK’s Technology and Telecoms sectors. Our findings are very reassuring: the Tech sector scores the best (across all sectors) when considering Growth and Quality – Taptica*, Frontier Developments* and dotDigital* in particular stand out on these metrics. Given these attractive characteristics and growth prospects, the Tech sector is unsurprisingly one of the most expensive – currently trading at 17.2x FY1 EV/EBIT and 23.8x FY1 P/E, versus 15.0x and 18.5x respectively for the wider market. Despite valuations appearing high, we believe there are value opportunities. For example, Proactis* features in finnCap’s QVGM+ portfolio (ranked 17/462) – the company offers attractive organic and inorganic growth, with earnings forecast to grow by 26% CAGR over the next two years, but despite this, only trades on 15x FY1 earnings and offers 8% FCF yield in FY2.
Companies: 7DIG ALT AMO ARTA BOTB BLTG CTP CFHL CYAN ISL DTC DOTD ELCO ESV FDEV GBG IDEA IDOX IMTK IGP IOM KBT KCOM KWS LRM MAI MMX NASA NET ONEV PHD QTX QXT RCN 932 SSY SEE SIM SPE SRT STR TAP TAX TEP TPOP TRAK UNG VIP ZOO
The 2H17 progress update reveals increased focus on the AiM partnership (a distributors’ buying group) with a clear path to increased monetisation of the opportunity. The combination of Channl with Altitude’s existing business management tools (to create AiMPro) delivers revenue related to total transaction spend on the platform, a potentially significant improvement compared with the former model, which was wholly reliant on online transactions. We look forward to continuing positive newsflow surrounding AiM and the other potential distribution and supplier partners, in addition to the launch of AndEverything.com – an online market place, claimed to be a world first for promotional products.
Companies: Altitude Group
Dillistone Group plc (DSG.L, 58.5p/£11.5m) Interim results to 30.06.17 (28.09.17) | Harvey Nash Group plc (HVN.L, 89p/£65.4m) Interim results to 31.07.17 (28.09.17) | Norman Broadbent plc (NBB.L, 11p/£4.6m) Interim results to 30 June 2017 and £1.23m placing (29.09.17)
Companies: DSG HVN NBB
Highlights this quarter: Economics: Generally, the data points to modest growth continuing, with a more positive trend in PMI surveys suggesting decent m manufacturing momentum over the next six months. Currency weakness continues to be a double-edged sword for U K manufacturers, with exporters gaining competitiveness while input prices have risen. There has recently been a divergence of sterling’s performance against the euro and the USD. Those in commodity or competitive product areas may well have seen margin erosion, while many in intermediary goods have already passed on price increases to their customers. With low unemployment, the prospect of tighter labour markets post-Brexit and public sector pay caps starting to come off also signals the potential for some labour inflation, long absent from the UK industrial scene. Topic of the quarter: We believe that powerful macro and sectoral pressures will drive further significant changes to the manufacturing supply chain over the next few years. We investigate some of these pressures, with the move to outsource suppliers to low- cost centres, like China, now seeing a slight reverse flow with some restoring to shorten complex and often inflexible supply chains. We see systems technology facilitating greater supply-chain control and efficiency. Brexit will present challenges to the UK supply chain with price and time to market barriers likely to rise, presenting challenges to the UK’s highly integrated and time-sensitive supply chain. Slick distribution infrastructure and greater information sharing with suppliers are likely to prove winning strategies in optimising logistics and gaining stock efficiencies. Sector valuation: The industrials sector has continued to exhibit strength, with small-cap industrials outperforming by 2 % on last year and larger cap industrials by 17%. Currency and improving economic data have been a positive for the sector. While some other sectors have seen a pick-up in profit warnings over recent months, industrial technology companies have announced generally positive or in-line trading updates that have helped to drive the small-cap Industrials to an EV EBITDA of 8.4x and a P/E of 16.7x with the traditional small-cap discount narrowing.
Companies: SIXH ACL AXS AMPH ALU AEP AVG CAPD CAR FENR FLO RAD GHH HDD IOF MPE RE/ RNO RBN SOLI SOM SCE TRI VANL VEL ZAM TRT
Driver’s FY17 results confirm the significant turnaround of the Group over the past 12 months. Revenue from continuing operations increased by 15% to £60.2m. Compared to last year’s loss making position (£0.4m LBT), Driver has reported underlying PBT of £2.5m, slightly ahead of our forecast (£2.4m). Cash generation has been a priority under the new management team, translating into negligible net debt at the year end (£0.2m and falling), compared to £9.9m (and rising) at the last year end. Driver is delivering on all the priorities set out at the time of the equity raise in February and begins the new year on very strong footing.
Companies: Driver Group
Cohort continues to make progress in a tough UK defence trading environment. Our earnings forecasts remain largely unchanged as performances at MASS and EID continue ahead of expectations, compensating for pressures at MCL and SEA. Our fair value calculation currently stands at 483p implying significant unrecognised potential. The recent share price fall seems unwarranted given the maintained outlook.
Since its inception in 2010, the Panmure Gordon Conviction List has outperformed the market, returning 278% against a Small Companies index that would have returned 232% over the same period. Our Q4 portfolio reflects our view that the UK equity market stands to benefit from a coordinated upturn in global growth. Low nominal fixed income spreads continue to provide a valuation underpin for global equities. There are increasing signs that the world’s central bankers are making a concerted effort to wean markets off near zero interest rates. However with global debt exceeding 200% of GDP and unfavorable demographic trends, we think their chances of rapid progress are slim.
Companies: CPI CTH CINE JE MJW NOG RPC VM/ XAR
discoverIE (previously called Acal) reported strong interims, proving that its strategy to grow the design and manufacturing (D&M) side of the business is bearing fruit. Organic revenue growth of 9% drove improved operating margins and EPS, while growth in orders and design wins position discoverIE for sustained growth. Management continues to seek out suitable acquisitions to accelerate growth of D&M – based on a similar profile to previous deals, we estimate that using existing credit facilities to make £50m worth of acquisitions could add 20-25% to FY19e EPS.