Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Engie. We currently have 12 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Engie’s Q3 results are slightly better than expected with adjusted revenues (including E&P as discounted operations) at €46.8bn for the nine months, which implies a 2.9% increase. In line with revenue growth, the company achieved a +3.8% increase in the adjusted EBITDA to €6.6bn. The group maintains its full-year guidance with adjusted net income of €2.4-2.6bn in the mid-range of the target. EBITDA, on the other hand, is expected to be in the lower range of expectations. The group has confirmed the disposal of its LNG upstream and midstream activities to Total for $2.04bn, including an earn-out of up to $550m. Engie will keep the downstream activities, including regasification infrastructure and retail customer sales. The completion of the deal is expected in 2018.
Engie reported an encouraging set of results for the first half, showing an acceleration of organic growth during the second quarter after the weak Q1. H1 revenues rose by 1.6% to €33.1bn (+2.6% org.). EBITDA was flat at €5.0bn (+4.0% org.), while net recurring income amounted to €1.5bn, a 4.2% increase (+15.5% org.). The group continued to improve its financial structure with a net debt reduction of €2.1bn ytd (corresponding to €22.7bn in net debt) on the back of the portfolio rotation programme. The interim dividend came to €0.35/share, to be paid in October 2017. Following the positive H1 results, management confirmed its FY2017 financial targets: Net recurring income of €2.4-2.6bn, expected at mid-range Net debt/EBITDA ratio <2.5x Cash dividend of €0.70/share with respect to 2017 Note, the disposal of the E&P activities is now treated as discontinued operations, with retroactive impacts on the P&L and cash flow statements. Thus, the 2016 figures have been entirely restated.
Engie has published its Q1-17 trading update. The figures were below expectations as, despite the 3.2% increase in revenues to €19.5bn, EBITDA declined by 3.6% to €3.3bn and operating income declined by 4.6% to €2.2bn mainly driven by low hydro production in France and the shutdown of one nuclear reactor since September 2016. The earnings results were below market expectations. Despite the weak Q1 earnings performance, the group confirmed the full year guidance (EBITDA of €10.7-11.3bn and net income of €2.4-2.6bn) as the first quarter was impacted by multiple timing impacts. However, the company’s financial situation is seeing a substantial improvement as net debt decreased by 17.7% ytd with positive operating cash flows, improving the credit ratios. This positive effect was visible despite the decrease in earnings.
The company has presented poor results, but with decreases that are lower than expected. Revenues decreased 4.6% yoy to €66.6bn, EBITDA was down 5.2% yoy to €10.7bn with a 2.7% yoy decrease organically, and adjusted net income at €2.5bn (-4.3% yoy). On a reported basis, the group finished once again in the red with reported net income at -€0.4bn driven by €3.8bn of impairments in power plants, nuclear assets and merchant activities. The dividend is maintained within expectations at €1/share for 2016 and €0.7/share for 2017 and 2018. The good news comes from the guidance, as the group expects to return to growth with EBITDA reaching €10.7-11.3bn and net income in the €2.4-2.6bn range, despite the erosion effect from the disposal of assets already achieved.
Engie, through a consortium with the Saudi Electric Company (SEC) and Saudi Aramco, has won a contract to build a 1.5GW cogeneration power plant using CCGT technology in Saudi Arabia For a total investment of $1.2bn, this would take the achieved cost of the project to $1.25m/MW, which is extremely competitive. Engie would hold a 40% stake in the project, with SEC holding 30% and Saudi Aramco the remaining 30%, which implies that Engie would have a $480m investment envelope in the project. The construction contract is attached to two 20-year contracts, whereby SEC would buy the electricity and Saudi Aramco would buy the steam and hot water produced, reducing the exposure of the project to wholesale price movements, although the achieved price for the contracts have not been disclosed. The power plant is expected to be commissioned in 2019, with the operation and maintenance of the power plant being transferred to SEC in 2018.
Engie has published its 9M trading update with revenue falling 11.1% yoy and 10.3% in organic terms ro reach €47.5bn, with EBITDA falling 5.4% yoy and -2% organically to €7.7bn. Nevertheless, operating cash flows decreased by 8.3% yoy to €6.8bn. Net debt fell by €1.9bn (-6.8% ytd), but the net debt/EBITDA ratio improved (2.38x). The results were negatively affected by commodity prices and compensated by higher infrastructure tariffs. The group confirmed its 2016 financial targets: adjusted net income group at the low end of the range of €2.4-2.7bn and EBITDA of €10.8-11.4bn.
The difficult half year of the group has been confirmed, mainly at the top-line level as it misses expectations with revenues decreasing 11.9% yoy to €33.5bn. However, the impact has been reduced due to an optimisation of the cost base with EBITDA reaching €5,651m (-7.8% yoy), mainly affected by lower commodity prices (with achieved prices), and a reduction in gas margins. Lower depreciation expenses and a reduction in impairment charges were achieved so that the operating profit increased 5.2% yoy to €3.38bn, pushing upwards in its path net income to an 11.3% yoy increase to €1,237m. On an adjusted basis, operating profit fell by 3.5% yoy to €3.5bn, providing a 1.9% organic growth, while net income decreased by 7% yoy to €1.5bn, which is in line with expectations. A €0.5/share interim dividend in cash will be paid. On the cash flow side, on top of lower earnings, the group had a negative one-off of €1.1bn of margin calls and derivatives which plunged the operating cash flow towards a 32% yoy decrease to €4.79bn. The decrease, added to the 9.6% yoy increase in capex and besides the €1.45bn from disposals and the repayment of €1.43bn of outstanding debt, made free cash flow finish in negative territory at -€657m. Despite the difficult results, the group has confirmed the full-year results with EBITDA at €10.8–11.4bn and adjusted net income in the €2.4-2.7bn range. Following the new strategy of the company, Engie has a new segment reporting in line with the new organisational structure.
Engie has provided mixed results as revenues reached €18.9bn, which is a 14.3% yoy decrease and falls short of expectations by 12%. However, given the conditions, EBITDA was strong as it fell by 1.7% yoy to €3.5bn, although on an adjusted basis it grew 2.3% where the positive results were supported by the restart of 3 reactors in Belgium and cost-cutting measures, which is in line with consensus. Moreover, operating income increased 0.4% yoy to €2.4bn and +5.9% on an adjusted basis, beating forecasts by 2%. On the other hand, operating cash flows decreased by 55% yoy, but this was mainly driven by WC movements due to the use of derivatives to cover the fall in commodity prices, and higher gas inventories. It is expected that the negative WC movements will be reversed over the year. Net debt decreased by €0.7bn due to cash generation and the first effects of the disposal programme. Following this publication, the group confirmed all its FY16 guidance: EBITDA between €10.8bn and €11.4bn, adjusted net income between €2.4bn and €2.7bn, a 2.5x net debt/EBITDA ratio and an A credit rating and a €1/share dividend to be paid in cash. The group has confirmed its intention to issue an IPO on Electrabel in 2017 (the Belgian subsidiary). The process has been started as the separation of the management of the subsidiary has already been achieved and the group is currently in legally creating an independent and separate entity.
Weak top-line performance as both revenues and EBITDA miss estimates. Revenues decreased 6.4% yoy to €69.88bn, 4% short of the forecast, with EBITDA having a similar decrease as sales (-6.6% yoy), missing forecasts by 1.2%. Adjusted operating income decreased by 11.6% yoy to €6.32bn, but the 4% fall is less dramatic than expected; however, on a reported basis it finished in negative territory due to impairments (-€8.7bn) and restructuring costs (-€870m), pushing the reported EBIT into negative territory to -€3.24bn. Due to this, the company had a reported net loss of -€4.62bn but, on an adjusted basis, net income reached €2.6bn, representing a €17% yoy decrease, 1% above estimates. Cash flows remained strong despite the decrease in EBITDA, as operating cash flows increased by 18.6% yoy helped by a substantial improvement in working capital (+€1.16bn). The improvement allowed Engie to cover a 58% increase in net capex and its dividend payments. A €1/share dividend has been proposed, to be paid in cash with a similar one expected for 2016, while dividends have been cut for 2017 and 2018 to €0.7/share to provide investors with visibility during the transition process. A radical transformation process has been put in place with €15bn of asset disposals, an increase in investment objectives, in addition to a move towards a lighter capital-intensive model with a more decentralised approach. On 2016 guidance, the group expects to achieve EBITDA between €10.8bn and €11.4bn with net income between €2.4bn and €2.7bn. An A credit rating is targeted with a 2.5x net debt/EBITDA ratio.
The Q3 trading update has confirmed that 2015 is a difficult year for the group. Sales fell by 1.5% ytd to €53.5bn and -4.6% on an organic basis. Gas and LNG revenues decreased by 38% ytd and Europe by 2.1% ytd, offset by strong performances in International (+10.4%), Infrastructure (+7.7%) and Energy services (4.1%). EBITDA reached €8.1bn, a 7.5% ytd decrease, mainly due to lower power and commodity prices and the effects on E&P and LNG activities, in addition to the unavailability of Belgium nuclear plants. Despite this, operating cash flow remains strong at €7.4bn, 8% above the previous year's levels, being able to withstand the capex increase. Nevertheless, investment has been adjusted to growth opportunities, as there has been a further reduction of €200m in E&P (an additional 10% decrease). Impairments are expected on the FY results due to worsening market conditions, with a downward adjustment of the carrying values of certain assets, although the amount has not been stated. However, it is important to remember the group has a robust balance sheet, one of the strongest in the sector. The group maintains its full-year guidance: EBITDA between €11.5bn and €12bn and adjusted net income €2.75-3.05bn, although it now expects the latter towards the lower end of the range. The dividend policy is maintained, with no objective to change it as cash flow generation remains strong.
Less dramatic than expected H1 results, as the group continues to feel the downward pressure from both electricity and commodity markets. Revenues decreased 2% yoy to €38.52bn, which is in line with expectations. EBITDA decreased by 4.79% yoy to €6.12bn, although the decrease is less than expected. The operating profit of the group decreased by 13% yoy to €3.61bn, but is still 4% above consensus. But the best results are provided on the bottom line, as adjusted net income reached €1.8bn, which was a 28.2% yoy decrease, but still 20.2% above consensus. The reported net income nonetheless reached €1.11bn due to the €700m impairment on gas assets. Net debt decreased by €700m ytd to reach €26.8bn, which is 3.18% better than consensus (net of hybrids), with a decrease in the effective interest rate to 3.0% from 3.14% in December 2014. The group will pay an interim dividend of €0.5 per share and confirmed its FY 2015 guidance: adjusted net income of between €2.85bn and €3.15bn and a dividend payout of 65-75% of the adjusted net income with a minimum payment of €1 per share. Furthermore, an agreement has been reached with the Belgian government confirming the extension life of two nuclear reactors (Doel 1 and 2). Furthermore, concerning the nuclear contribution settlements in dispute for overpaid nuclear taxes, the group has also achieved an agreement concerning the nuclear tax payments: €200m for 2015, €130m for 2016 and a 40% margin from 2017 onwards.
The restructuring of the group is gaining momentum. Engie has just acquired a 95% stake in SolaireDirect with 100% of the voting rights for something just below €200m. With this, the group becomes the leader in French solar power and increases its renewable footprint worldwide as SolaireDirect already has a presence in 15 different countries. The news follows the possible IPO of the group's Belgian generation production as it expects to list its Belgian nuclear assets under the Electrabel name.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Engie. We currently have 12 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Following the nomination of preferred bidder status in November, Avon has announced that an agreement has been reached with the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) for the General Service Respirator contract. The contract builds order visibility on both sides of the Atlantic while demonstrating the new strategy in action.
Companies: Avon Rubber
Avon Rubber (AVON LN) - UK MoD agreement confirmed; Earthport (EPO LN) - Underlying progress in H1; LiDCO Group (LID LN) - FY trading update & new HUP wins; N Brown Group (BWNG LN) - Valuation anomaly at 2008 levels (9x P/E, 7% yield); Realm Therapeutics (RLM LN) - Positive clinical and business update; Sanderson Group (SND LN) - Good start to year, on track; Trifast (TRI LN) - Q3 trading update in line; Zinc Media Group (ZIN LN) - Board changes
Companies: AVON BWNG TRI RLM EPO ZIN SND LID
Water Intelligence’s year-end update has detailed FY 2017 sales growth of +45% and adjusted PBT up +21%. Investment is being made into infrastructure to support the continued significant growth potential and we have factored this into our forecasts, offset at the earnings level by a lower tax charge. The global problems of water scarcity and losses from failing infrastructure are driving increasing demand for the group’s technologies and services. A recent partnership to sell innovative products into the home supports Water Intelligence’s aim to become a one-stop platform for water solutions. Including our estimate of the benefit from the US tax change, we have upgraded our FY 2018E EPS forecast by 3% and our FY 2019E by 4%, and raised our target price from 180p to 191p.
Companies: Water Intelligence
Epwin encountered some turbulence in FY17 arising from customer ownership changes but ended the year in line with company expectations set following H1 results. Self-help initiatives are ongoing and we believe Epwin remains conservatively financed with a positive cash flow outlook. These factors support our assertion that the company is able to sustain its dividend attraction even during a temporary earnings dip in FY18.
Companies: Epwin Group
XP expects a lower effective group tax rate resulting from the reduction in US corporate tax rates from 35% to 21%. In addition, it expects to receive a tax refund from the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore. This should drive upside to our FY18 EPS forecast as well as boosting XP’s cash position.
Companies: XP Power
The sharp fallsin global markets have had an inevitably adverse impact on our smaller companies universe. We have seen prices marked down sharply but the level of underlying selling is not yet apparent. Without wishing to appear ‘one-eyed’ about it, it raises the question whether these falls represent a buying opportunity? Firstly there have to be signs of stability returning which may take time. There is an MPC meeting on Thursday which is likely to leave rates unchanged. In Share News & Views, we comment on 2017 AIM IPOs, Braemar*, Cropper*, FDM*, GetBusy*, NWF, Porvair, Sprue* and Warpaint*.
Companies: APC BMS CRPR ECSC EUSP FDM GETB PCF SNX SPRP TCN W7L
Elektron Technology has announced the sale of the trade and assets of Queensgate Nano to Prior Scientific Instruments Ltd, completing its strategy of slimming down its portfolio to focus on the businesses offering the best potential to deliver growth and value for shareholders. Elektron Technology will receive an initial cash consideration of c.£0.8m, with a further cash payment of up to £0.8m contingent on sales in the year following the transaction date. This represents c.1.1x historic EV/sales based on the initial £0.8m consideration only, which appears to be an attractive multiple for a business which has been materially loss-making. The disposal will be earnings enhancing with the proceeds used for working capital purposes. The announcement follows last week’s positive trading update, which confirmed strong trading for FY18, an increase in year end net cash to £5.1m and encouraging prospects for FY19 underpinned by order book growth.
Companies: Elektron Technology
Polypipe is a manufacturer of high margin plastic piping and ventilation systems with a balanced exposure across a growing UK construction market. Consistent growth ahead of the market is driven by plastic piping substitution for legacy materials and legislation (water management; energy efficiency etc). A new Chief Executive also promises a fresh perspective on the Group’s strategy and approach to M&A. We view PLP as a solid long term holding with good growth prospects and initiate with a target price of 448p and a Buy recommendation.
Companies: Polypipe Group
This quarter we use finnCap’s Slide Rule to provide both top-down and bottom-up analysis of the UK’s Technology and Telecoms sectors. Our findings are very reassuring: the Tech sector scores the best (across all sectors) when considering Growth and Quality – Taptica*, Frontier Developments* and dotDigital* in particular stand out on these metrics. Given these attractive characteristics and growth prospects, the Tech sector is unsurprisingly one of the most expensive – currently trading at 17.2x FY1 EV/EBIT and 23.8x FY1 P/E, versus 15.0x and 18.5x respectively for the wider market. Despite valuations appearing high, we believe there are value opportunities. For example, Proactis* features in finnCap’s QVGM+ portfolio (ranked 17/462) – the company offers attractive organic and inorganic growth, with earnings forecast to grow by 26% CAGR over the next two years, but despite this, only trades on 15x FY1 earnings and offers 8% FCF yield in FY2.
Companies: 7DIG ALT AMO ARTA BOTB BLTG CTP CITY D4T4 DTC DOTD ELCO ESG FDEV GBG IDEA IDOX IMTK IGP IOM KBT KCOM KWS LRM MAI MMX NASA NET PHD QTX QXT RCN 932 SSY SEE SIM SPE SRT STR TAP TAX TEP TPOP TRAK UNG VIP ZOO CYAN ONEV
The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) survey, ‘Ownership of UK quoted shares: 2016’, shows that retail investors are more important than most company managements realise or most capital markets professionals admit. When it is also appreciated that the data shows that retail investors set the share price for most quoted companies, most days, it becomes clear that engaging with such an audience enhances a company’s standing, whilst ignoring them courts disaster.
Companies: OPM ABZA AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BUR CMH CLIG COS DNL EVG GDR INL MCL MUR NSF OBT ODX OXB PPH NIPT RE/ REDX SCLP SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL
In the February 2018 edition of the Hardman Monthly Newsletter, Nigel Hawkins addresses the issue of the UK's infrastructure expenditure, much of which is energy-related.
Companies: OPM ABZA AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BUR CMH CLIG COS DNL EVG GTLY GDR INL MCL MUR NSF OBT OXB PPH NIPT PHP RE/ REDX SCLP SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL
Vitec will report FY17 results on 21 February. The Group has undergone a transition in the past year with the disposals of Haigh-Farr and Bexel, the acquisitions of JOBY, Lowepro and RT Motion and the restructuring of segments to better reflect the Group’s focus on addressing new customers and the independent content creator market. The results should give a further indication of how this transition is progressing. Commentary from the November trading update suggested some continuing recovery in the Photographic Division and improving performance in the Broadcast division with FY17 expectations unchanged at the time.
Companies: Vitec Group
Low & Bonar unveiled a measured action plan to deal with the issues demonstrated by its results. Management is reviewing the status of Civil Engineering and has restructured some of the business. It has identified production opportunities in CTT while acting to ensure that growth in B&I and I&T is sustainable. Critically, the company has committed to greater cash discipline, pointing to a significant reduction in net debt in the current year. While we have modestly reduced our forecasts for 2018 and 2019, our assessment of value remains positive. Using comparative ratios for EV/EBITDA, PER and yield, our theoretical value is 97p, comfortably ahead of the current level. In particular, the current yield premium does not adequately reflect the company%u2019s prospects.
Companies: Low & Bonar
Springfield’s maiden interims confirm a positive H1 trading period and good progress across both the Private and Affordable Housing divisions. After a strong start to the second half, FY’18 PBT is expected to be 5% to 10% ahead of previous expectations (for now we upgrade PBT/EPS by 5.7%). The outlook statement strikes a confident tone, reflecting the improved visibility that is a feature of the Scottish housing model. In our view, Springfield represents a high quality, high growth and differentiated proposition led by an impressive management team. Today’s results confirm a strong start to Springfield’s life as a public company and we expect the shares to respond well.
Companies: Springfield Properties