Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Abivax. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
The €12m investment by a leading healthcare investor (Sofinnova Partners), is a strong endorsement of Abivax and anti-inflammatory ABX464 in particular. As highlighted in our recent report (25th June 2019), clinical data to date suggests that ABX464 could take a meaningful share of the $70bn anti-inflammatory market. The unmet potential of the inflammatory market is well illustrated by the recently announced $5.1bn deal between Gilead Sciences Inc. and Galapagos NV. With future financing expected from partnering. the Sofinova investment adds to our confidence for Abivax securing a major licensing deal over the the next 12 months. Now funded until Q2/2020E, we believe the ABX464 data provide a strong basis for licensing to provide development funding thereafter. We reiterate both our OUTPERFORM and €31.30 target price.
Focussed on identification and exploitation of regulators of immunity and inflammation, Abivax has two major products in clinical trials. With Phase 2a efficacy on a par with recently approved tofacitinib, ABX464 shows sustained benefit in ulcerative colitis ("UC") without the safety concerns of JAK or anti-TNF drugs. Moving into confirmatory Phase 2b for UC and Phase 2a in Crohn's and rheumatoid arthritis ("RA"), ABX464 promises a meaningful share of the $70bn anti-inflammatory market and a substantial licensing agreement by 2020E. Entering Phase 1/2, ABX196 is a powerful activator of iNKT cells with with potential to extend the benefits of PD-1 / PD-L1 immune checkpoint inhibitors ("ICI"). Sustained by ICIs iNKT cells act directly on cancer cells as well as promote the anti-tumour activity of key ICI-activated cells; a strong rational for synergy. Funded until Q1/2020E, we believe the ABX464 data provide a strong basis for licensing to provide development funding thereafter. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM and increase our TP to €31.30 (from €28.80).
Data presented at the ECCO (European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation) support the potential of Abivax's ABX464 in ulcerative colitis ("UC") While response to biologic therapies such as anti-TNF often wains with time and alternatives including JAK inhibitors are associated with serious safety issues, six month Phase 2a extension data indicate safety and progressive improvements from ABX464 in key UC disease markers, including Mayo Score and faecal calprotectin over the eight months since the original trial began. We are optimistic that clinical studies planned for 2019E should confirm the UC results and may suggest efficacy in Crohn's Disease and rheumatoid arthritis ("RA"). There appears a firm basis for a licensing / development deal expected during 2019E in a > $70bn market. We reiterate and maintain both our OUTPERFORM recommendation and €28.80 target price.
With proof-of-concept trials in ulcerative colitis ("UC") suggesting efficacy on a par Abivax's ABX464 looks a real alternative to approved therapies. A new class of oral drug releasing a natural inflammatory brake, ABX464 could alleviate the treatment failures and possibly safety issues of existing drugs. This would open a significant opportunity in a > $70bn market. We are optimistic that clinical studies planned for 2019E should confirm the UC results and may suggest efficacy in Crohn's Disease and rheumatoid arthritis ("RA"). There appears a firm basis for a licensing / development deal expected during 2019E. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM recommendation and increase our target price ("TP") to €28.80 (from €19.50 / share).
Phase 2a ulcerative colitis ("UC") data indicates real promise for the ABX-464 in the $15bn inflammatory bowel disease ("IBD") market. A small early stage trial, positive read-out on all key parameters suggests real benefits from this oral once a day drug for patients seeking to avoid repeated intravenous infusions or at worst surgical bowel removal. Already showing promise in the depletion of latent HIV reservoirs, these new data should significantly de-risk the drug's path to market potentially opening the door to an even larger opportunity in inflammatory disease. We reiterate both our OUTPERFORM recommendation and €19.50 target price.
Data released from the second cohort of the ABX-464-005 trial indicates that ABX-464 can reduce the latent HIV reservoir in gut as well as in peripheral blood in patients receiving anti-retroviral therapy. Compared to the first trial cohort, these data suggest that the drug is safe when used over a longer period (3 months vs. 28 days) and has an impact on multiple latent viral reservoirs in HIV-infected patients; even when u sed at a third of the dose (50mg/day vs. 150mg/day). While full data from the trial is not expected until late Q3 / early Q4 2018E, these preliminary data should be seen as encouraging, suggesting that the trial should form a strong platform for movement into a Phase 2b study. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM recommendation and €19.50 target price.
While retroviral therapy now sees patients survive into their seventies, latent residual infection still condemns the HIV-infected to life time therapy, chronic health problems and shortened lives. Compelling preclinical data now supported by two Phase II human trials indicate that Abivax's ABX464 could be the first drug to drain the latent HIV reservoir. With its novel mode of action ("MoA"), the drug may not only act to reduce or even eradicate residual infection untouched by existing antiretrovirals, but also provide relief from the inflammation that blights the lives of patients with HIV as well as other major unrelated diseases such as inflammatory bowel disease ("IBD"). ABX464 has potential as an HIV curative therapy or as adjunct to existing treatments. Risk adjusted modelling suggests fair values for curative and adjunctive scenarios of €28.5 and €16.3 / share, rising to €48 and €27 respectively should on-going clinical trials in HIV and IBD yield positive results during 2018.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Abivax. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
|25Jun19 15:16||EQS||Abivax SA (ABVX-FR): Ready to deal with inflammation|
|11Mar19 14:54||EQS||Abivax SA (ABVX-FR): ABX464: sustained safety and benefit in inflammatory bowel|
|22Jan19 14:58||EQS||Abivax SA (ABVX-FR): Getting a brake in inflammation|
|06Sep18 10:16||EQS||Abivax SA (ABVX-FR): Remarkable data opens door to $15bn IBD market|
|04Jul18 11:34||EQS||Abivax SA (ABVX-FR): ABX464 reduces HIV DNA in latent viral gut reservoir|
We initiate coverage on life sciences company OptiBiotix Health plc (“OPTI”) with an OUTPERFORM recommendation and a target price ("TP") of GBp97 per share. OPTI discovers and develops targeted microbiome-modulating probiotics, prebiotics and other functional food ingredients backed by scientific and clinical evidence. Since its founding in 2014, the company has developed four products for cardiovascular lifestyle diseases and entered >45 commercial deals with corporate partners through which it generates revenues throughout the value chain. The first two ingredients, LPLDL for cholesterol reduction and SlimBiome for weight loss were launched in May 2017 and are already generating revenues. We expect total revenues including those of latestage assets SweetBiotix (calorie-free sweet fibres for sugar replacement) and LPGOS (prebiotic that enhances the effect of LPLDL) to exceed £50m by 2025E.
Companies: Optibiotix Health
Like whales feasting on Krill, overseas firms are today stuffing themselves silly with choice fillets of corporate Britain. Why? Well look no further than geopolitical tensions and Brexit, which have disproportionately impacted UK equities and the £. Indeed the FTSE100 has lagged the S&P500 by a hefty 19% over the past 2 years, with Sterling dropping to 34 year lows vs US$ (see below). That said to us, based purely on fundamentals, this period of underperformance appears over-cooked, leaving many quality British companies vulnerable to predatory interest.
Companies: VOD AV/ AGK CHG CNA ITV BRBY SMIN CTEC SXS OXIG MGAM IMI WEIR WMH KMK EYE GATC ULS INS ALFA RDT TSTL ELCO MBH BLTG IHC 9537 CSRT NBI
Interim results to 30 June 2019 showed a 21% decline in revenues, partly reflecting delays to contracts as well as other short-term market factors, which led to a 50% increase in adjusted pre-tax losses to £1.66m given the higher (+25%) R&D investment. Period-end cash was £2.1m. With a renewed commercial focus on high-value clinical trials market as well as its suite of new products, eCOA (electronic clinical outcome assessment) and NeuroVocalix (voice biomarker), however, the company continues to generate interest from large pharma, which is reflected in a growing order book, up 4% from 31 December 2018. This underpins our expectations for growth in 2020. We reduce our forecasts to reflect the impact of short-term factors in 2019 and introduce a target price of 90p, which implies a 2020 EV/Sales multiple of 3.5x. The business is being managed to ensure that it becomes cashflow breakeven in Q4 2020, with sufficient cash to ensure that it gets to profitability.
Companies: Cambridge Cognition
The Lupus field continues to experience renewed upward momentum, especially in the past few days with a new update from Roche for its drug Obinutuzumab in Lupus Nephritis, an organ specific complication of Lupus. This follows AstraZeneca’s announcement (29/08/2019) of having met its primary and secondary endpoints in its second Phase III study in Lupus with antibody product Anifrolumab in the TULIP II study (see TLSD research report dated: 09/09/2019). We note in a recent broker call with the CEO of AstraZeneca, Pascal Soriot, stated that AstraZeneca was excited about the opportunity to file for Anifrolumab with the FDA. This is despite having completed the Phase III TULIP II study with an endpoint that we believe is not generally accepted by FDA – he went on to state that AstraZeneca was yet to discuss next steps with US FDA, however, he believed the ‘chances of approval on existing data are good, considering the unmet medical need and the limitations of current treatment’ (read: Benlysta). We believe that AstraZeneca will rely on presenting all its data from the TULIP II study, as well as a previous Phase II study that was successful. We await data from both the TULIP I and TULIP II studies – And re-iterate this situation is not dissimilar to ImmuPharma for its novel drug Lupuzor™.
Interim results are in line with the detailed trading statement issued in July; revenue fell to £2.0m but, following significant cost cutting outlined in the 2018 strategy, EBITDA became positive at £0.2m with £0.6m of cash on the balance sheet. The Group has been more selective with its direct selling activities in the US such that, whilst volumes fell, average prices increased, and revenue only fell from £0.8m to £0.7m. In our view, the price traction demonstrates the level of demand in this division US revenue would have been flat notwithstanding a contract of £0.1m that landed just outside of H1. These products have been higher margin and gross margin increased from 68% to 76%. The UK continues to be a difficult market as the NHS has been reluctant to invest.
Companies: Deltex Medical Group
In January, we provided a list of 11 stocks for 2019 that we believed would perform strongly with attractive catalysts that could lead to material outperformance. In this Quarterly Research Outlook, we revisit these views, analysing what has happened and how the remaining six months of the year could play out.
Companies: AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR HYR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO PCA PANR PXC PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG SOM TWD TRAK TSG TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF
A strong margin performance in H1 and positive outlook statement leads us to upgrade PBT/EPS expectations by 6%, continuing the recent track record of outperformance. Cash generation remains strong and a maiden dividend of 1.0p is expected, equating to a useful 3.2% yield. Following the success of the Renalytix AI spin out and IPO, EKF has deepened its relationship with Mount Sinai, signing a Preferred Provider Agreement to give it early access to new commercial opportunities. The first of these is a novel digital care pathway platform for patients with IBD, a significant chronic disease burden. We believe this represents an exciting potential opportunity for further value creation in due course, adding to the already strong organic growth opportunity from EKF itself. Now trading on sub-10x FY20 EV/EBITDA, EKF is looking increasingly undervalued given the multiple opportunities ahead.
Companies: EKF Diagnostics Holding
It has been a challenging trading period for Surgical Innovations, with the UK facing significant pressures resulting in many elective surgeries being postponed or cancelled. The company is directly exposed to these trends, which unfortunately show no signs of abating in the short term. We reduce our FY19 revenue expectations by £1.5m, which flows through to a £0.7m reduction in PBT. More positively, good progress is being made in opening new accounts (both in the UK and internationally), which should leave the group well placed once conditions improve. Importantly, the group remains profitable, cash generative and with net cash on the balance sheet.
Companies: Surgical Innovations Group
Futura announced HY2019 results today. It continues to deliver to plan with the key P3 FM57 study on-track to read-out in December and over 500 patients (of 1,000 in total) having completed the study already.
Companies: Futura Medical
Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.
Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC STU GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM
Full-year results to 30 April 2019 were in line at the revenue line but 5% (£0.1m) better than expected at the adjusted pre-tax profit level. Underpinned by c.5.5% organic growth, the 20% and 26% increases in revenue and adjusted EBITDA were driven by full-year contributions from ATC and QSI, acquired in FY 2018, as well as five acquisitions in FY 2019. Notable was the 35% increase in free cashflow. Additional investments into Sentek, Atik, Graticules and Astles and the integration of ATC with Thermal Exchange in FY 2020 should benefit the businesses in FY 2021. We upgrade our FY 2020 adjusted EPS by 7% as well as introduce FY 2021 forecasts, which indicate 13% EPS growth. The company indicates that it expects to add at least one new business in FY 2020, which will be incremental to these forecasts. We are raising our target price by 9% to 60p, reflecting the improved gross margins and stronger underlying cashflow.
Companies: Scientific Digital Imaging
The introduction of IFRS 2 in 2004 generated considerable debate about the best approach for handling ‘share-based payments’ (SBP). While it is clearly a cost to shareholders, which should be included in the statutory reporting lines through the P&L account, the question arose as to whetherit should be part of our underlying EBIT calculation.
Companies: AVO AJB AGY ARBB CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP RE/ REDX RMDL STX SCE TRX TON SHED VAL VTA W7L
The challenges associated with value creation drive all investors. Any investment professional is eager to make their mark by picking organisations that are able to deliver superior returns. Increasingly investors look into how organisations are governed and how effective the top decision-making bodies of organisations really are. In this white paper, we shed light on research findings and reveal the seven hallmarks of effective boards. The seven hallmarks are proven to create more effective boards and are set to be the next lever in the value creation process. Better Boards has created advanced board evaluation tools designed to motivate and inspire and above all, contribute to superior value creation.
Companies: AVO AJB AGY CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR KOOV MUR NSF OXB PCA PHP RE/ RMDL STX SCE TRX TON SHED VTA W7L
Oxford BioMedica’s (OXB’s) interim results were broadly in line with our expectations for 2019. The decrease in H119 revenues to £32.1m (-9%) largely reflects the exceptional performance in the previous period, which was bolstered by strong licence income (H119: £13.3m vs H118: £19.9m) primarily from upfront payments with the Axovant and Bioverativ deals signed (£18.5m combined). Importantly, in H119 bioprocessing revenues grew 23% to £18.8m, which we expect was driven by the continued uptake of Novartis’s CAR-T Kymriah. Typically, bioprocessing revenues are back-end loaded so a stronger performance can be expected in the second half of the year. With OXB transitioning one of its GMP suites across to bioreactor processing in H119 and its new OxBox bioprocessing facility expected to be fully operational in Q220, we expect this growth to continue in the near term. We retain our valuation of £649m.
Companies: Oxford Biomedica
LupuzorTM owned and developed by ImmuPharma is a valuable late-stage asset and is potentially a key peptide therapeutic drug in the fight against Lupus. Last year, the drug completed the first of two-Phase III clinical trials; we commented on the data and analysis of the trial result, in extensive detail in our initiation report dated: 28 May 2019. The second LupuzorTM Phase III clinical trial, could begin after the agreement of the trial design with regulators (possibly based on a targeted group encompassing Lupus patients that are anti-dsDNA auto-antibody positive) and once a licensing partner or funding route is identified. In this note, we comment on and evaluate the results of AstraZeneca’s recently disclosed Phase III Lupus trial, (Tulip II), which we believe will potentially have a positive impact on the Lupus field and the prospects for partnering LupuzorTM, as well as its path report. We reiterate our BUY rating on ImmuPharma plc and a Target Price of 76p.