Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Ipsen. We currently have 10 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Ipsen released a strong set of FY17 results which were ahead of our estimates as well as market consensus. Revenue at CER surged 21.1% (100bp above AV’s estimate) led by strong growth momentum in the Specialty Care/SC segment (+25.9% vs guidance: >+24%; c.83% of sales). Within the segment, Somatuline continued to be the principal growth contributor (+31.9%; c.37% for sales) benefiting from robust volume growth in North America (+62.1%; c.47% of drug sales). Neurosciences drug ‘Dysport’ grew 14.5% (c.17% of sales) was supported by good performance in the aesthetics business in North America. Note that the good manufacturing practices certificate for Dysport was reissued in Brazil in January 2018. Prostate cancer drug ‘Decapeptyl’ recorded 3.6% growth (c.18% of sales) driven by volume growth across Europe (notably in France and Spain which benefited from the new indication). Sales for the recently-launched renal cell carcinoma/RCC drug ‘Cabometyx’ came in at €51.7m (Q4 17: +44% qoq) on the back of a good performance in Germany, France, the Netherlands and the UK. However, sales for pancreatic cancer drug ‘Onivyde’ were slightly below expectations (€56.9m; Q4 17: +10.8% qoq). Consumer Healthcare/CH segment ended the year in the black (+1.4% vs guidance: >0%; c.17% of sales) as the OTx business model strategy started to bear fruit. The momentum was led by a strong performance in Smecta (+4.1%) and Fortrans/Eziclen (+16.5%). In addition, increased contribution from the newly-acquired OTC products (including Prontalgine and Buscopan) bolstered growth further. Geographically, North America snowballed 74.5% during the year (c.25% of sales) aided by strong demand for Somatuline (partially attributable to new contracts) and Dysport. Major Western European countries grew 13.7% (c.34% of sales) on the back of robust performance in France (+9.8%), Germany (+23.5%), Italy (+11.8%) and the UK (+17.9%). Other European countries surged 10.9% (c.21% of sales) while the ROW region was up 3.7% (new contractual set-up for Etiasa in China had a negative impact). After taking into consideration currency headwinds, total revenue increased by 20.5% in FY17. Despite investments in sales and marketing to support new product launches, the core operating profit grew 38.4% (26.4% margin vs guidance: >25%) on the back of robust operational leverage. However, after accounting for amortisation, impairments and restructuring charges, the reported EPS came in at €3.28 per share (+c.20%). Management has proposed a dividend of €1 per share for the year (vs FY16: €0.85). For FY18, Ipsen targets revenue growth of >16% at CER (double-digit growth in SC and low single-digit growth in CH) while currency is expected to have a headwind of c.4%. The core operating margin is likely to exceed 28% in FY18.
With an acceleration in sales momentum in Q3 17 relative to the first half (Q3: +22.6%; Q2: +18.5%; Q1: +19.1%), Ipsen remains on track to achieve its revenue and profitability guidance for FY17. However, with mounting competition in NET, botulinum toxin and the first-line RCC marketplace, the company will need to work hard to maintain its trajectory of market share gain in the mid-term.
Ipsen released Q2 17 results slightly ahead of our estimates as well as market consensus. Revenue at CER increased by 18.5% (vs AV’s estimate: +17.2%) on the back of strong growth in the Speciality Care ‘SC’ segment (+21.1% vs AV’s estimate: +21.2%; accounts for c.83% of Q2 17 sales). Within the segment, Somatuline was once again the primary growth contributor (+27.6% vs AV’s estimate: +25%; accounts for c.36% of Q2 17 sales) driven by volume growth and market share gain in North America. After a weak start to the year (Q1 17: -0.5%), Decapeptyl returned to growth (+5.1% vs AV’s estimate: +3%; accounts for c.19% of Q2 17 sales), benefiting from a good performance in Europe and the Middle East. Sales for the kidney cancer drug ‘Cabometyx’ improved sequentially to €9.3m (Q1 17: €7.6m; Q4 16: €7.2m; accounts for c.2% of Q2 17 sales) with an increased contribution from Germany. Following the completion of the Merrimack acquisition in April 2017, Onivyde recorded its first sale during the quarter (€19.3m vs AV’s estimate: €17m; accounts for c.4% of Q2 17 sales). However, sales for the neurosciences drug ‘Dysport’ slumped to -1.2% (vs AV’s estimate: +3%; accounts for c.16% of Q2 17 sales) which was affected by importation issues in Brazil (good manufacturing practice ‘GMP’ certification temporarily suspended), more than offsetting the good performance in the aesthetics business in North America. The Consumer Healthcare ‘CH’ segment recorded growth of +7.6% (vs AV’s estimate: +0.1%; Q1 17: -5.3%; accounts for c.17% of Q2 17 sales), benefiting from the new retail strategy for Smecta in China (+17.1% vs AV’s estimate: +2%; accounts for c.6% of Q2 17 sales). Moreover, increased contribution from the recently acquired OTC products further bolstered growth. Geographically, North America was once again the primary beneficiary (+77.2%; accounts for c.24% of Q2 17) driven by the strong growth of Somatuline and the good performance of Dysport in the aesthetics business. The upward growth trajectory continued in major western European countries (+12%; accounts for c.34% of Q2 17 sales) led by a rapid uptick in the demand for Cabometyx. Sales in other European countries were up 5.7% (accounts for c.20% of Q2 17 sales) and ROW also returned to growth (+1.2% vs Q1 17: -6.7%; accounts for c.22% of Q2 17 sales). For H1 17, the total revenue was up 20.4% (vs AV’s estimate: +18.6%) after taking into consideration currency tailwinds (+1.6%). The adjusted operating margin improved to 26.2% (+120bp yoy), reflecting the strong growth momentum in the SC segment, thereby offsetting the increased launch investments for Cabometyx and Onivyde. Given the strong H1 17 performance, management has revised its revenue and profitability guidance for FY 17. The company now targets organic sales growth of >24% for the SC segment (vs earlier guidance: >18%) and an adjusted operating margin of >25% for the firm (vs earlier guidance: >24%). However, despite the upturn in Q2 17, the company has lowered the revenue guidance for the CH segment due to regulatory headwinds in France (>0% vs earlier guidance: >4%). The long-term guidance for the CH segment has been halved to +2-3%.
At its Investors Day held in May 2017, Ipsen increased its financial targets for FY20. The company now targets sales in excess of €2.5bn (vs AV’s estimate: €2.5bn; earlier guidance: €2-2.5bn) with the Specialty Care ‘SC’ segment expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 14% between FY16-20 (accounts for c.80% of FY16 sales). The Consumer Healthcare ‘CH’ segment is projected to grow 4-6% per year until FY20 (accounts for c.20% of FY16 sales) after taking into consideration the impact of recent acquisition of assets from Sanofi and Akkadeas Pharma. More importantly, Ipsen anticipates the underlying operating margin to now exceed 30% in FY20 (vs AV’s estimate: 25.3%; earlier guidance: >26%). The company will continue to invest in business development (focus on early/ mid-stage assets) alongside transforming its internal R&D model.
Ipsen released Q1 FY17 trading results which were ahead of our estimates as well as the market consensus. Revenue at CER increased by 19.1% (vs AV’s estimate: +17.7%), on the back of a robust performance in the speciality care segment (+25.4% vs AV’s estimate: +22.4%; accounts for c.84% of Q1 17 sales). Within the segment, the primary growth contributor was Somatuline (+36.6% vs AV’s estimate: +25%; accounts for c.39% of Q1 17 sales), led by strong volume growth in Europe and market share gains in North America. The biggest surprise was the neurosciences drug, Dysport (+31.3% vs AV’s estimate: +8%; accounts for c.20% of Q1 17 sales), benefiting from good volume progression in the aesthetics business (in partnership with Galderma). However, the growth momentum turned negative for Decapeptyl (-0.5% vs AV’s estimate: +3%; accounts for c.18% of Q1 17 sales), as it was pinned down by a change in the distribution scheme and continued pricing pressure in China. Note that Ipsen has changed the name of its primary care segment (c.16% of Q1 17 sales) to ‘Consumer Healthcare’ from Q1 17 onwards. The segment’s dismal performance continued in the quarter (-5.3% vs AV’s estimate: -7%), being adversely impacted by stocking issues in Vietnam for Smecta (-2.4%; accounts for c.7% of Q1 17 sales). Moreover, the poor performance of Tanakan in Russia and France (-37.9%; accounts for c.1% of Q1 17 sales) suppressed the segment’s top-line further. Geographically, the prime beneficiary was North America (+86.3%; accounts for c.23% of Q1 17 sales), supported by the robust performance of Somatuline and Dysport. The growth momentum accelerated in major western European countries (+11.5% vs Q4 16: +8.6%; accounts for c.36% of Q1 17 sales), benefiting from strong demand for Somatuline and the rapid adoption of Cabometyx in France and Germany. Revenue was up 15.9% in other European countries (accounts for c.22% of Q1 17 sales), on the back of the strong demand for Dysport in Turkey, Ukraine and Greece. However, a lacklustre performance in ROW (-6.7%; accounts for c.19% of Q1 17 sales) partially softened the top-line momentum. For FY17, management expects the speciality care and consumer healthcare segments’ revenue to grow above 18% and 4% (at CER), respectively. The adjusted operating margin is expected to surpass 24% for the year.
Ipsen reported yet another strong quarter. The revenue for Q3 FY16 (at CER unless specified otherwise) increased by 12.2% (vs Q2 16: +14.5%), fuelled by strong growth in the speciality care ‘SC’ segment (+17.8% vs Q2 16: +18.6%; accounts for c.82% of Q3 16 sales). Within the segment, Somatuline was the largest growth contributor (+34.1% vs Q2 16: +37.4%; accounts for c.35% of Q3 16 sales), and once again drove the robust volume growth and favourable pricing trend in the North America. Moreover, the good overall performance in Europe (notably Germany, France, and the UK) further underpinned the sales of the drug. The impressive performance continued for ‘Decapeptyl’ (+6.3% vs Q2 16: +6.7%; accounts for c.22% of Q3 16 sales), aided by a strong volume uptick in Europe. Growth for Dysport decelerated to +9.3% (vs Q2 16: +12.2%; accounts for c.19% of Q3 16 sales) as the solid performance in the US aesthetics market was slightly offset by volume declines in Brazil and Russia. The dismal performance continued in the primary care ‘PC’ segment (-7.5% vs Q2 16: -0.1%; accounts for c.18% of Q3 16 sales), mainly due to the slower ramp-up of the new commercial strategy in China for Smecta (-1% vs Q2 16: +1.7%; accounts for c.6% of Q3 16 sales). Moreover, the challenging market environment for Tanakan in Russia and for Forlax in Algeria, suppressed further growth in the segment. Geographically, revenue was up 6% in major western European countries (vs Q2 16: +9.2%; accounts for c.35% of Q3 16 sales) and +4.4% in other European countries (vs Q2 16: +12.2%; accounts for c.21% of Q3 16 sales). Sales in North America increased by 72% (vs Q2 16: +75.3%; accounts for c.18% of Q3 16 sales), driven by the solid performance of key drugs – Somatuline and Dysport. ROW was up 1.8% (Q2 16: +1.1%; accounts for c.26% of Q3 16 sales). The total reported revenue grew by 10.2% (vs Q2 16: +10.5%), reflecting a -2% currency effect. Management has raised the FY16 revenue guidance for the SC business (+15% vs earlier guidance of +12%) subsequent to the strong performance witnessed in 9M FY16. Although the revenue guidance for the PC business has been lowered to c.-5% (vs slight growth earlier), Ipsen’s core operating margin guidance has been revised upwards by 100bp (vs earlier guidance). In August 2016, the US FDA approved Dysport for the treatment of paediatric lower limb (PLL) spasticity and, in September 2016, the European Commission approved cabometyx as a second line of treatment for renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Moreover, in October 2016, Ipsen (along with partner Exelixis) announced positive clinical data from its ‘Cabosun’ phase 2 trial (for use of Cabometyx in the frontline setting for RCC). In January 2017, Ipsen acquired US commercialisation rights for oncology drug ‘Onivyde’, from Merrimack Pharma. The drug is approved as a second-line of treatment for metastatic pancreatic cancer and is the only FDA approved drug in this indication (post gemcitabine-based therapy). The deal (expected to close in Q1 17) involves payment of $575m in cash and up to $450m in additional milestones, contingent upon the approval of Onivyde for other potential indications in the US.
Q1 sales grew 4.7% at CER and 3.4% as reported, including +9.7% at CER for speciality care and -11% for primary care. Sales increased by 74.7% at CER in North America (c.15% of total sales) and by 3.7% in major Western European countries (39% of total sales). The significant decrease in the RoW accounts for 24% of total sales (-16.1% at CER and -18.6% as reported).
1/ Q4 sales were up 21.3% at CER (FY15 +10.4%). Operating income increased by 10.2% and the group’s net income by 23.7%. Operating cash flow decreased by 9% to 15.5% of sales (vs. 19.3% in FY14). 2/ Management announced the in-licensing of the global rights ex North America and Japan of cabozantinib for the second-line treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma, for which commercial launch is expected in 2017 in Europe.
Q3 sales rose 7.7% (+5.2% at CER). Yoy, growth was respectively +10.4% and +7%.
1/ Q2 sales increased by 9.3% (+4.5% at CER). H1 increase was 11.8% (+7.9% at CER). H1 current operating income increased by 3.2%. Operating CF fell by 33.8% (+11.2% before changes in working capital). 2/ Ipsen’s partner, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, announced positive results from the TELESTAR phase 3 study showing that telotristat etiprate is effective in the treatment of carcinoid syndrome caused by neuroendocrine tumors not adequately controlled by somatostatin analogs
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Ipsen. We currently have 10 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
EKF has reported a strong set of figures, slightly ahead of expectations. Revenues increased 8% to £41.6m and the margin profile of the business has been transformed, with gross margins significantly improved and EBITDA +52% to £9.3m. With the recovery phase now complete, attention is turning to driving the next leg of growth. We see a number of short and medium term growth opportunities over and above our published forecasts although, as ever, precise timing and quantum is uncertain.
Companies: EKF Diagnostics Holding
Perfomatrix PLC, a global end to end Performance Marketing technology and services company headquartered in the UK, is looking to join AIM in early April 2018, offer TBC Crusader Resources, an ASX-listed public company incorporated in Australia, which is primarily focused on the exploration and development of gold assets in Brazil. Offer TBC, expected late March. SimplyBiz, a Financial Services Firm, reported to be considering an IPO targeting a market capitalisation of between £140m and £155m in a listing that would raise £30m of new money. Bacanora Lithium—Readmission. No new money. Mkt cap £140m. Due 21 March. the new holding company for Bacanora Minerals Ltd Core Industrial REIT—established to invest in Irish-based industrial properties, predominantly located in the Greater Dublin Area. Vendor placing and new funds to a total of €225m, Target gross proceeds €207m. Expected Mid March Polarean - Medical drug-device combination company operating in the high resolution medical imaging market. Offer TBC. Due26 March
Companies: VLS SGZ SPA MTPH TLY ITQ TFW SAR RHL
Today’s FY results are in line with our expectations, and emphasise the recently announced shift in strategy in favour of partnered development of inhaled generics. The in–market performance of key value drivers flutiform®, Seebri®, Ultibro® and EXPAREL® has been in line with forecasts, and the ongoing VR475 and VR647 trials (Phase III/EU and Phase II/US respectively) are on track, with top-line data expected in H2. We reiterate our Buy recommendation (we upgraded to Buy on 27th Feb at 72p) and 120p target price.
Companies: Vectura Group
OptiBiotix Health Plc (LON:OPTI) focuses on managing and treating widespread, chronic medical conditions, such as obesity and high cholesterol, through the modulation of the human microbiome.
Companies: Optibiotix Health
Oxford BioMedica’s full year results highlight the continued step up in bioprocessing and commercial development income, increasing 36% in the year, as the facilities operate close to capacity. The group announced on Friday that it had raised £20.5m to fund the expansion of its bioprocessing facilities as it continues to focus on establishing additional deals with its LentiVector® platform (as evident by the most recent deal with Bioverativ). The group’s partnered product pipeline continues to progress and we look forward to the additional expected approvals of Kymriah® later in the year.
Companies: Oxford Biomedica
Anpario’s full year results highlighted a period of strong growth with momentum reportedly continuing into 2018. The group remains focused on building strong commercial relationships with end users and we expect the initiatives to help the group deliver our 11% sales growth estimate in 2018. We make modest adjustments to our forecasts this morning and increase our Target Price by 2p to 434p. We remain at Hold.
- Genedrive's PLC (LON: GDR) HepC test just entered the commercial phase as partner Sysmex launched in EMEA and APAC territories in recent weeks - Re-design of the mTB test in progress, launch date to be announced in the next fiscal year - Discussions for the disposal of the Services business entered an exclusivity period, expect an update by the end of June - Careful cash management with a £3.9mln cash balance at the end of February, we would expect a capital raise in the second half of calendar year 2018
2018 is the year of the Great Exhibition of the North. This summer, Newcastle and Gateshead will play host to a government-sponsored, 80-day marathon of events. Billed as the largest event in England this year, the Great Exhibition will showcase the best of the North East’s art, culture, design and innovation and we expect it to highlight the region’s ongoing success in high-end engineering, technology and life sciences. It may also reflect on the success of the North East’s plcs, the most striking example of which is Sage’s transition from 1980’s start-up to £9bn FTSE100 stalwart. We remain on the look out for the next Sage and expect the region to continue to produce attractive IPO candidates following Ramsdens’ success last year. Overall 2017 was a positive year for the region’s listed companies, one highlight of which was the takeover of Quantum Pharma, an N+1 Singer client, by Clinigen for £150m. We are confident that 2018 will be another successful year. Our top regional picks this year are Hargreaves Services, Zytronic and Applied Graphene Materials.
Companies: AGM BWY GRI GRG HSP IDH KMK NTG RFX UTW VNET ZYT
In the March 2018 edition of the Hardman Monthly Newsletter, Nigel Hawkins addresses the attractions of quoted infrastructure funds that maintain a low profile.
Companies: OPM ABZA AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BNO BUR CMH CLIG COS DNL EVG GTLY GDR INL MCL MUR NSF OBT OXB PPH NIPT PHP RE/ REDX SCLP SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL
A fully integrated specialty pharma company, Midatech Pharma is rapidly progressing the development of three lead R&D programs. They have developed three proprietary drug delivery technologies (Q-Sphera, Gold Nano Particle and Nano Inclusion) to improve and expand the therapeutic potential of validated drug products. At the same time Midatech has built a US commercial unit focused on supportive care products.
Companies: Midatech Pharma
The best things in life are worth waiting for, or at least that seems to be the case with Kromek, a pioneering radiation detection expert. Since listing on AIM at 51p back in October 2013, the company has not only been busily refining and field testing its next generation CZT (cadmium zinc telluride) technology, but importantly also securing a raft of new orders.
Companies: Kromek Group
In our second edition of “Trend spotting” we note how in the last three weeks the defensive rotation trend has gathered pace and further evidence has emerged of the “relative fading” in the UK economy. However we now see early signs of the “risk on” trend starting to reassert itself in equity markets and we look at small cap laggards plus European exposure as ways to play this.
Companies: GNS NTG SPH TRI XAR BOY VCT GHH CHH DPH INS HILS RPS LWB EKF UDG SYNT MYSL IMO BCA JUP KMK
What with North Korean missiles whistling over Japan, supreme leader Kim Jong Un threatening nuclear war against America and numerous other terrorist attacks, the world is undoubtedly a dangerous place. Demonstrated again just a fortnight ago, after a ‘lone wolf’ ISIS extremist, managed to explode a home-made ‘pipe-bomb’ in a busy New York underpass near Times Square.
Companies: Kromek Group
Shire reported a solid set of numbers for Q4 and the full year 2017. Immunology drove most of the growth while neuroscience lent strong support. The guidance, understandably, was not taken positively by the market, with the company expecting the top-line to grow at mid single-digit and profits at a slower pace. While we will be tweaking our estimates to account for the softer-than-expected outlook for 2018, we do not alter our already-modest long-term estimates.
Core biodecontamination revenues increased by 13%, driving a material improvement on operating margins to 10% and strong EPS growth of 78%. Having upgraded our FY18/19 EPS forecasts by 18% & 16% respectively in January, we make no further changes at this early stage in the year. The shares continue to trade at a material discount to peers and we see further upside scope on growth, forecast upside and potential cash returns.