Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Ipsen. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
At its Investors Day held in May 2017, Ipsen increased its financial targets for FY20. The company now targets sales in excess of €2.5bn (vs AV’s estimate: €2.5bn; earlier guidance: €2-2.5bn) with the Specialty Care ‘SC’ segment expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 14% between FY16-20 (accounts for c.80% of FY16 sales). The Consumer Healthcare ‘CH’ segment is projected to grow 4-6% per year until FY20 (accounts for c.20% of FY16 sales) after taking into consideration the impact of recent acquisition of assets from Sanofi and Akkadeas Pharma. More importantly, Ipsen anticipates the underlying operating margin to now exceed 30% in FY20 (vs AV’s estimate: 25.3%; earlier guidance: >26%). The company will continue to invest in business development (focus on early/ mid-stage assets) alongside transforming its internal R&D model.
Ipsen released Q1 FY17 trading results which were ahead of our estimates as well as the market consensus. Revenue at CER increased by 19.1% (vs AV’s estimate: +17.7%), on the back of a robust performance in the speciality care segment (+25.4% vs AV’s estimate: +22.4%; accounts for c.84% of Q1 17 sales). Within the segment, the primary growth contributor was Somatuline (+36.6% vs AV’s estimate: +25%; accounts for c.39% of Q1 17 sales), led by strong volume growth in Europe and market share gains in North America. The biggest surprise was the neurosciences drug, Dysport (+31.3% vs AV’s estimate: +8%; accounts for c.20% of Q1 17 sales), benefiting from good volume progression in the aesthetics business (in partnership with Galderma). However, the growth momentum turned negative for Decapeptyl (-0.5% vs AV’s estimate: +3%; accounts for c.18% of Q1 17 sales), as it was pinned down by a change in the distribution scheme and continued pricing pressure in China. Note that Ipsen has changed the name of its primary care segment (c.16% of Q1 17 sales) to ‘Consumer Healthcare’ from Q1 17 onwards. The segment’s dismal performance continued in the quarter (-5.3% vs AV’s estimate: -7%), being adversely impacted by stocking issues in Vietnam for Smecta (-2.4%; accounts for c.7% of Q1 17 sales). Moreover, the poor performance of Tanakan in Russia and France (-37.9%; accounts for c.1% of Q1 17 sales) suppressed the segment’s top-line further. Geographically, the prime beneficiary was North America (+86.3%; accounts for c.23% of Q1 17 sales), supported by the robust performance of Somatuline and Dysport. The growth momentum accelerated in major western European countries (+11.5% vs Q4 16: +8.6%; accounts for c.36% of Q1 17 sales), benefiting from strong demand for Somatuline and the rapid adoption of Cabometyx in France and Germany. Revenue was up 15.9% in other European countries (accounts for c.22% of Q1 17 sales), on the back of the strong demand for Dysport in Turkey, Ukraine and Greece. However, a lacklustre performance in ROW (-6.7%; accounts for c.19% of Q1 17 sales) partially softened the top-line momentum. For FY17, management expects the speciality care and consumer healthcare segments’ revenue to grow above 18% and 4% (at CER), respectively. The adjusted operating margin is expected to surpass 24% for the year.
Ipsen reported yet another strong quarter. The revenue for Q3 FY16 (at CER unless specified otherwise) increased by 12.2% (vs Q2 16: +14.5%), fuelled by strong growth in the speciality care ‘SC’ segment (+17.8% vs Q2 16: +18.6%; accounts for c.82% of Q3 16 sales). Within the segment, Somatuline was the largest growth contributor (+34.1% vs Q2 16: +37.4%; accounts for c.35% of Q3 16 sales), and once again drove the robust volume growth and favourable pricing trend in the North America. Moreover, the good overall performance in Europe (notably Germany, France, and the UK) further underpinned the sales of the drug. The impressive performance continued for ‘Decapeptyl’ (+6.3% vs Q2 16: +6.7%; accounts for c.22% of Q3 16 sales), aided by a strong volume uptick in Europe. Growth for Dysport decelerated to +9.3% (vs Q2 16: +12.2%; accounts for c.19% of Q3 16 sales) as the solid performance in the US aesthetics market was slightly offset by volume declines in Brazil and Russia. The dismal performance continued in the primary care ‘PC’ segment (-7.5% vs Q2 16: -0.1%; accounts for c.18% of Q3 16 sales), mainly due to the slower ramp-up of the new commercial strategy in China for Smecta (-1% vs Q2 16: +1.7%; accounts for c.6% of Q3 16 sales). Moreover, the challenging market environment for Tanakan in Russia and for Forlax in Algeria, suppressed further growth in the segment. Geographically, revenue was up 6% in major western European countries (vs Q2 16: +9.2%; accounts for c.35% of Q3 16 sales) and +4.4% in other European countries (vs Q2 16: +12.2%; accounts for c.21% of Q3 16 sales). Sales in North America increased by 72% (vs Q2 16: +75.3%; accounts for c.18% of Q3 16 sales), driven by the solid performance of key drugs – Somatuline and Dysport. ROW was up 1.8% (Q2 16: +1.1%; accounts for c.26% of Q3 16 sales). The total reported revenue grew by 10.2% (vs Q2 16: +10.5%), reflecting a -2% currency effect. Management has raised the FY16 revenue guidance for the SC business (+15% vs earlier guidance of +12%) subsequent to the strong performance witnessed in 9M FY16. Although the revenue guidance for the PC business has been lowered to c.-5% (vs slight growth earlier), Ipsen’s core operating margin guidance has been revised upwards by 100bp (vs earlier guidance). In August 2016, the US FDA approved Dysport for the treatment of paediatric lower limb (PLL) spasticity and, in September 2016, the European Commission approved cabometyx as a second line of treatment for renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Moreover, in October 2016, Ipsen (along with partner Exelixis) announced positive clinical data from its ‘Cabosun’ phase 2 trial (for use of Cabometyx in the frontline setting for RCC). In January 2017, Ipsen acquired US commercialisation rights for oncology drug ‘Onivyde’, from Merrimack Pharma. The drug is approved as a second-line of treatment for metastatic pancreatic cancer and is the only FDA approved drug in this indication (post gemcitabine-based therapy). The deal (expected to close in Q1 17) involves payment of $575m in cash and up to $450m in additional milestones, contingent upon the approval of Onivyde for other potential indications in the US.
Q1 sales grew 4.7% at CER and 3.4% as reported, including +9.7% at CER for speciality care and -11% for primary care. Sales increased by 74.7% at CER in North America (c.15% of total sales) and by 3.7% in major Western European countries (39% of total sales). The significant decrease in the RoW accounts for 24% of total sales (-16.1% at CER and -18.6% as reported).
1/ Q4 sales were up 21.3% at CER (FY15 +10.4%). Operating income increased by 10.2% and the group’s net income by 23.7%. Operating cash flow decreased by 9% to 15.5% of sales (vs. 19.3% in FY14). 2/ Management announced the in-licensing of the global rights ex North America and Japan of cabozantinib for the second-line treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma, for which commercial launch is expected in 2017 in Europe.
Q3 sales rose 7.7% (+5.2% at CER). Yoy, growth was respectively +10.4% and +7%.
1/ Q2 sales increased by 9.3% (+4.5% at CER). H1 increase was 11.8% (+7.9% at CER). H1 current operating income increased by 3.2%. Operating CF fell by 33.8% (+11.2% before changes in working capital). 2/ Ipsen’s partner, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, announced positive results from the TELESTAR phase 3 study showing that telotristat etiprate is effective in the treatment of carcinoid syndrome caused by neuroendocrine tumors not adequately controlled by somatostatin analogs
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Ipsen. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Last Friday we reprised our successful speed dating format with excellent presentations from the CEOs of Access Intelligence, Corero Network Security, LiDCO Group, OrganOx and Yu Group. Each company gave a ten minute overview of its business and the investment case and we had quick-fire Q&A from a group of fund managers. Below we summarise our thoughts on each company, with more details inside, plus we include the slides presented by each management team. We believe all five companies have excellent potential and are happy to arrange further contact. We also look forward to setting up our next speed dating event.
Companies: ACC CNS LID YU/
This morning AnimalCare has announced it has entered into a conditional share purchase agreement to acquire the entire issued share capital of Ecuphar NV, a European animal health company focused on the development and sale of veterinary pharmaceutical products that provide significant benefits to animal health in the companion animal, equine and production animal markets.
Companies: Animalcare Group
Carador Income Fund (CIFU LN) Level of refinancing and reset activity remains high | Imagination Technologies Group (IMG LN) No progress with Apple; Whole group for sale | Uncovered Gems - Speed Dating Lunch Another five sparkling gems
Companies: IMG CIFU ACC CNS LID YU/
Europa Oil & Gas* (EOG): Irish licence update (CORP) | Victoria* (VCP): Share price fall is entry opportunity (CORP) | CareTech (CTH): Interims, acquisitions and upgrades (BUY)
Companies: EOG CTH VCP
Abzena reported solid FY17 results with underlying revenue growth of 41% (to £18.7m). In FY17, Abzena continued to focus on the integration of its service offering across its three sites (US and UK), which has been expanded by its recent placing of £25m gross (issuing 75.8m new shares at 33p). We expect this to enable strong growth and take Abzena to profitability in FY20, which will be a significant milestone for the company. We maintain our valuation at £132m, 62p per share, but note potential upside as it demonstrates growth and as Abzena inside products progress.
FFI Holdings— specialist in the provision of completion contracts to the entertainment industry for films, television, miniseries and streaming product. Offer TBA. Expected 30 June. QUIZ— omni-channel fast fashion womenswear Company intention to float. Due July 2017. Offer TBA Ethernity Networks—Schedule 1 from Israeli based specialist in data processing technology used in high end carrier ethernet applications across the telecom, mobile, security and data centre markets . Expected late June. Offer TBA. Jangada Mines—Schedule 1 advanced stage PGM exploration project containing what the Directors understand to be the largest PGM resource, as well as being the only pre-development PGM project, in South America. Offer TBA. Expected late June. Phoenix Global Mining— US Brown field copper play. Expected late June. Offer TBA Touchstone Exploration— Oil exploration and production company active in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. Interests of approximately 90,000 gross acres. Production c. 1,300 boepd. Raising £1.45m. Expected mkt cap £7.5m. Due 26 June. I3 Energy –Schedule 1. Independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK. Offer TBC, 7 June admission. Verditek— Schedule 1 update. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Issue price 10p. Admission late June Tiso Blackstar Group—Schedule 1 update. Media, entertainment and marketing solutions group/ £160m mkt cap. Admission only. Expected late June. sidential Secure Income - social housing REIT raising up to £300m Admission due c.12 July. ScotGems—Admission due 26 June. Seeking £50-£100m. To investing in a diversified portfolio of Small Cap Companies listed on global stock markets DP Eurasia—Intention to float from the exclusive master franchisee of the Domino's Pizza brand in Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Georgia . £20m primary raise plus a partial vendor sale. AIB—Intention to float from AIB, Ireland's leading retail and commercial bank . The Minister for Finance intends to sell approximately 25% of the Ordinary Shares of AIB. Valuation range €10.6-€13.3bn. Admission end June. Curzon Energy—Report on Proactive Investors of intended LSE float this year with acquisition of coal bed methane assets in Oregon. Looking to raise £3m plus. NLB Group—financial and banking institution based in Slovenia, with a network of 356 branches. Seeking Ljubliana Stock Exchange listing with GDRs on the LSE. Expected mid June. Kuwait Energy— $150m raise plus vendor offer. Admission due June. 2p reserves 810.0 mmboe
Companies: IDP SKIN IVO MSYS CTH SAR ARL PTSG MWE MAFL
Ergomed (ERGO LN) Top line PeproStat™ Phase IIb data now expected in Q4 2017 | Touchstone Innovations (IVO LN) IP Group confirms Takeover Offer | Walker Greenbank (WGB LN) Strong o/seas & manufacturing demand counter soft patch in UK in May
Companies: WGB IVO ERGO
GYG—Intention to float by the superyacht painting, supply and maintenance company. Due 5 July. Raising £6.9m new plus vendor sale of £21.5m at 100p. Mkt Cap c. £47m. Revenue of €54.6m in FY16 and adjusted EBITDA of €6.7m. Greencoat Renewables - Schedule 1. Targeting a portfolio of operating renewable electricity generation assets, initially investing in wind generation assets in Ireland. Offer TBC. Due Mid July. FFI Holdings— Specialist in the provision of completion contracts to the entertainment industry for films, television, mini-series and streaming product. Offer TBA. Expected 30 June. QUIZ— Omni-channel fast fashion womenswear Company intention to float. Due July 2017. Offer TBA Ethernity Networks—Schedule 1 from Israeli based specialist in data processing technology used in high end carrier ethernet applications across the telecom, mobile, security and data centre markets. Expected late June. Offer TBA. Jangada Mines—Sch 1 advanced stage PGM exploration project containing what the Directors understand to be the largest PGM resource, and only pre-development PGM project, in South America. Offer TBA. Expected late June. Phoenix Global Mining— US Brown field copper play. Expected late June. Offer TBA Touchstone Exploration— Oil E&P company active in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. Interests of approximately 90k gross acres. Production c. 1.3k boepd. Raising £1.5m. Expected mkt cap £7.5m - 26 June. I3 Energy –Schedule 1. Independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK. Offer TBC, 7 June admission. Verditek— Schedule 1 update. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Issue price 10p. Admission late June Tiso Blackstar Group—Schedule 1 update. Media, entertainment and marketing solutions group/ £160m mkt cap. Admission only. Postponed. Rockpool Acquisitions—Northern Ireland based Company seeking strong NI acquisition with an international outlook. Raising £1.5m at 10p. Due 5 July. Residential Secure Income - social housing REIT raising up to £300m Admission due c.12 July. ScotGems—Admission due 26 June. Seeking £50-£100m. To investing in a diversified portfolio of Small Cap Companies listed on global stock markets DP Eurasia—Intention to float from the exclusive master franchisee of the Domino's Pizza brand in Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Georgia . £20m primary raise plus a partial vendor sale. AIB—Intention to float from AIB, Ireland's leading retail and commercial bank. The Minister for Finance intends to sell approximately 25% of the Ordinary Shares of AIB. Valuation range €10.6-€13.3bn. Admission end June. Curzon Energy—Report on Proactive Investors of intended LSE float this year with acquisition of coal bed methane assets in Oregon. Looking to raise £3m plus. NLB Group—financial and banking institution based in Slovenia, with a network of 356 branches. Seeking Ljubliana Stock Exchange listing with GDRs on the LSE. Expected mid June. Kuwait Energy— $150m raise plus vendor offer. Admission due June. 2p reserves 810.0 mmboe Supermarket Income REIT– Up to £200m raise to acquire a diversified portfolio of supermarket real estate assets in the UK, providing long-term RPI-linked income. Due 21 July.
Companies: VLS GSH EGI MSG FDEV UNG TND LTHM REDX CREO
CareTech has announced in line interim results and the acquisition of an Adult Learning Disabilities business which adds circa £2.4m to EBITDA. Investment in management and infrastructure ahead of further scaling of the business tempers our upgrades but CareTech remains well positioned to take advantage of the consolidation in this expanding sector. We increase our target price to 470p (previously 458p) and reiterate of BUY recommendation.
After a disappointing end to FY 16, Smith & Nephew (S&N) exhibited improved sequential sales evolution in Q1 17 (trading update, only sales disclosed) – underlying sales grew 3% (the highest since Q1 16) to $1.1bn, in line with consensus expectations. However, a negative disposal impact of 2% and a currency headwind of 1% neutralised the underlying expansion, resulting in the reported growth being flat. On a geographical basis, the underlying recovery was primarily driven by the strong uptick in emerging markets growth (12% vs. 3% in Q4 16 and -6% in Q1 16) on the back of a sturdy Chinese performance (+14%) and annualisation of the Gulf headwinds. Meanwhile, established markets (including both the US and other established markets) remained weak, recording an underlying growth of 1%. Notably, franchise-wise (underlying basis), advanced wound care turned positive (1%; after remaining flat or negative throughout FY 16) while knee implants (5%. vs. +9% in Q1 16), sports medicine joint repair (7% vs. 11% in Q1 16), trauma & extremities (5% vs. -7% in Q1 16) and advanced wound devices (+16% vs. Q1 16: +11%) all contributed healthily. Conversely, hip implants remained flat (vs. +4% in Q1 16) while weak arthroscopic-enabling technologies (-1% vs. Q1 16: +4%) and advanced wound bioactives (-8% vs. Q1 16: -4%) adversely impacted the performance. Based on current exchange rates, management now expects a currency headwind of 0.6% (previously 1%). Factoring in the reduced currency headwind, management has slightly increased its reported revenue growth estimate to 1.6-2.6% from the previous 1.2-2.2% while maintaining its underlying revenue guidance of 3-4%.
Companies: Smith & Nephew
Microsaic Systems (MSYS LN) Challenges persist, but encouraging progress with biopharma strategy | ReNeuron Group (RENE LN) FDA approval of cryopreserved formulation of hRPC candidate | Sinclair Pharma (SPH LN) Acquisition of Refine™ broadens the aesthetic portfolio
Companies: SPH RENE MSYS
OptiBiotix* (OPTI): Supply agreement with HLH (CORP) | Seeing Machines* (SEE): Guardian arrives in the UK (CORP)
Companies: Optibiotix Health Seeing Machines
genedrive, an emerging UK medtech company, focuses on the development and commercialization of an innovative, point-of-care diagnostic system, also called Genedrive® (in this report, "genedrive" refers to the company, whereas "Genedrive®" indicates the product). genedrive is poised to become the first company to launch a decentralized Hepatitis C diagnostic, entering a large market at a time when new curative therapies for the disease are transforming opportunities for testing and treatment. A Genedrive® TB diagnostic has already been launched and the platform has a wide range of alternative applications.
The Refine™ Support System appears to be a good fit with Sinclair’s Silhouette® range of suture-based aesthetic products. In the US, the product will be marketed by ThermiGen, primarily targeting the aesthetic breast surgery market (a 600,000-procedure market in the US alone). Other markets in Europe, LatAm and Asia will be added in due course following regulatory approvals. We reiterate our Buy with a target price of 37p.
Companies: Sinclair Pharma
In our third edition of Trend spotting we stick with our suggestion at the end of March to up European exposure and we review the recent market moves and macro trends. We comment on the recent strong performance of our growth, quality and momentum styles which we expect to continue and we examine what happened to sectors around the last general election period in 2015, adding some new colour.
Companies: AUG GNS IQE NTG SDL SPH SDY TRI VEC XAR GHT BOY CRW EMIS VCT ECK GLE GHH DATA AVON CHH DPH HILS SDM ZYT MUR RPS LWB EKF SUN UDG SYNT CINE DOTD MPM FUM CLIN RENE ATQT SERV ERGO BCA BUR DRV SCS JUP FDP GBG GTLY HW/ EAH SFR PHD CXENSE KNOS NETD G4M GFIN FUTR ULS RHL RAT FEN LOOP MYSL