Research that is free to access for all investors. Companies commission these providers to write research about them.
Brokers who write research on their corporate clients and make it available through our main bundle offering.
Research that is paid for directly by asset managers. Only accessible to institutional investors permissioned for access.
Event in Progress:
View the latest research on other companies in the sector.
What happened? Ipsen this morning reported a solid 3Q print (+3% vs. expectations) notably helped by a strong Somatuline beat driven by lack of competition from generics which has naturally triggered a guidance increase implying 1/9% upgrades to sales/core EBIT (see: Solid beat and raise but generics risk remains). While we do not dispute the quality of the print today, especially as the rest of the portfolio also modestly exceeded expectations, we see a challenging outlook ahead: 1/ a risky P2 readout for fidrisertib before year-end, 2/ an arbitration resolution unlikely to bring the clarity needed to turn more constructive on the LT prospects of company''s long acting toxin and 3/ the looming generics risk on Somatuline likely to make management cautious about FY26 guidance. We reiterate Neutral and share conference call main takeaways below. BNPP Exane View: . Somatuline''s competition set to remain IPN''s key overhang. With the vast majority (if not all) of the guidance upgrade underpinned by Somatuline''s generics supply issue, it is fair to say that Somatuline remains the main moving part in IPN''s equity story for now and thus its erosion a key overhang moving forward. While management refrained from providing guidance on its 2026 outlook, it continues to view Pharmathen as struggling to bring meaningful supply online and has no visibility as to when it might improve. The other missing part is Sun Pharma with management still anticipating they should get approved sometimes next year in the US which is set to trigger a significant uptick in terms of erosion. Even in this scenario, Ipsen expects topline to continue to grow but flag that profitability is likely to get hit and should see lower level of profitability compared to this year''s 35% core EBIT guidance. . No comment on IPN10200''s arbitration, still expected by year-end. No clarity on the possible outcomes of the IPN10200''s arbitration was provided but resolution is still expected by...
Ipsen Ipsen SA
What happened? Ipsen 3Q25 sales have beaten expectations by 3% once again helped by a strong beat from Somatuline (+7% vs expectations) that continues to benefit from generics supply issue while the rest of the portfolio was broadly in line. While the updated guidance suggests 1/9% upgrades to consensus sales/core EBIT, respectively, we believe that the looming Somatuline competition risk into 2026 is likely to slightly temper investors'' enthusiasm. BNPP Exane View: Ipsen''s print has once again benefited from a solid 7% beat of Somatuline that continues to benefit from the lack of meaningful competition from generics while the rest of the portfolio was broadly in line. We flag good performance from Iqirvo and Bylvay, respectively, 8/4% above expectations, offset by a slight miss from Dysport (2% below expectations) and underwhelming performance from Onivyde (1% below expectations) that should drive meaningful downgrade revisions, in our opinion. Company has raised its FY25 guidance to reflect anticipations for limited Somatuline competition for the remainder of the year and now look for around 10% CER sales growth (vs. greater than 7% before) and core EBIT margin around 35% (vs. greater than 32% before) that should drive 1/9% upgrades to consensus sales/core EBIT, respectively. Overall, we anticipate a modest positive reaction in the share price as the ex-Somatuline business met expectations. However, the looming generics competition is likely to slightly temper investors'' enthusiasm, in our opinion. We expect QandA this afternoon (earnings call to be held at 12am BST/1pm CET) to notably focus on company''s expectations regarding generics pressure in 2026 as well as on the announced acquisition. Key financials . 3Q sales (+14% CER) were 3% ahead of consensus driven by another Somatuline beat (+7% CER, 7% ahead of consensus) while the rest of the portfolio is broadly in line (+1% ahead of expectations). . On Somatuline, our discussion with company...
Based on Rx trends and recent discussion with management, we have downgraded our 2026-35 sales/EPS estimates by 2-16% as we turn more conservative on several of IPN''s key products. While we rate the recently reported IPN10200''s P2 data as promising, more clarity on its go-to strategy is needed to turn constructive with year-end arbitration resolution alone unlikely to be enough. 3Q preview - another low-quality beat ahead thanks to generics continued supply issues Once again, we expect Ipsen to slightly beat expectations thanks to the absence of meaningful competition from Somatuline generics. While this will slightly mask the underperformance of the rest of the portfolio, we expect investors to read the print thoroughly and increasingly question IPN''s ex‑Somatuline performance, just as they did after the underwhelming 1H25 earnings. IPN10200 - year-end arbitration unlikely to bring the clarity needed to turn more constructive While IPN''s long-acting toxin candidate P2 data have been met by a muted stock price reaction, we believe it more likely reflects the uncertainty over the asset''s ownership and its go-to market strategy rather than scepticism towards clinical data, which we rate as promising. That said, we do not expect the arbitration to be resolved by year‑end to provide the clarity required to adopt a more constructive stance. Instead, we await an update on the go‑to‑market strategy, and flag that any outcome other than an extension of the Galderma collaboration would, in our view, be a negative. Our new EUR110/sh PT puts Ipsen at ~11x PE (20% discount to EU Pharma); Neutral reiterated We have downgraded our 2026-35e sales/EPS estimates by 2-16% reflecting a more conservative view on Somatuline, Decapeptyl, Cabometyx and Onivyde, based on Rx trends and recent discussions with the company, slightly offset by a more constructive view on Dysport, Iqirvo and Bylvay. That said, our PT increases by 5% as we reduce our WACC to 9%, in light of US...
What happened? We hosted Dr. Siegfried Schmidt, Medical Doctor and Founder at Munich Medical Esthetic. Topics discussed include drivers of toxin use and trends across patient demographics, feedback on Relfydess launch trajectory in the EU, data comparisons with the new incumbent in the class IPN1002 and its Phase II LANTIC dataset. Key takeaways summarised below, our detailed notes are available upon request. BNPP Exane View: . Market trends. Dr. Schmidt highlighted that recent trends, particularly with the ''beautification'' patients - referring to the 20-30yr patient population, highlight the two key patient priorities: looking ''natural'' and ''prevention''. To achieve the ''natural'' look, patients prefer ''2D'' changes with subtler injectables like toxins, as opposed to the more noticeable ''3D'' change with the locally administered volume enhancement offered by fillers. He quoted around 80-90% of patients to always start with toxins to treat glabellar lines, followed by the upper face, and also confirmed a patient preference for biostimulators over fillers. However, he insists that fillers will always be a part of his treatment arsenal as there are some conditions (e.g. hollowing, lip atrophy) that can only be treated with them, but this is something he tends to introduce later on when patients lose the fear/are more comfortable with injectables. Finally, Dr. Schmidt confirms he already sees GLP-1s as a tailwind for its business with Ozempic patients reaching out to get volume replacement through fillers. . Relfydess EU feedback. Recall, Relfydess is Galderma''s novel long-acting toxin that has been launched about a year ago ex-US. Now a year into the launch, Dr. Schimdt confirms a step change in terms of both onset and duration of action consistent with company''s claims. Given Dr Schmidt''s close relationship with Allergan - where he serves as a medical adviser - we place great value on his appraisal that Relfydess finally introduces genuine innovation...
IPN IPN GALD
What happened? While IPN10200''s P2 POC data reported this morning (see: IPN10200 P2 data suggest ''best-in-class'' profile) have left Ipsen''s shares relatively unchanged since last close, Galderma''s stock has been weak (down ~4% at time of writing), likely pricing some incremental competitive pressure from IPN10200. While we stand by our view that this drug could ultimately prove itself as a new best-in-class, we continue to believe that more data will be needed to have a definitive opinion and remain confident that GALD will likely secure IPN10200''s commercialization rights whatever the arbitration outcome is (resolution 2H25e). We see GALD''s shares weakness as an attractive buying opportunity and flag very bullish feedback on Nemluvio from both our AD KOL call (see: Atopic Dermatitis deep dive; dissecting amlitelimab and discussing galvokimig) and from the EADV congress hosted in Paris last week (see: EADV + Sanofi CSO roundtable feedback). BNPP Exane View: . IPN10200 early data promising but more data needed to claim superiority over Relfydess. While more data will be needed to have a definitive view on IPN10200''s potential across aesthetics and therapeutics, our recent contacts with Ipsen suggest that the company believes that these P2 data already support a ''best-in-class'' profile. As highlighted in our note this morning (see: IPN10200 P2 data suggest ''best-in-class'' profile), company''s claim of a ''substantial'' majority of patients experiencing a clinically significant response at week 24 suggests a superior profile to Dysport/Botox but also Relfydess/Daxxify which have historically fallen short of the 50%-mark on the same endpoint. That said, cross trial comparison comes with lots of caveats including baseline characteristics with patients'' severity at enrolment key to turn more definitive about IPN10200''s potential superiority. While we are not arguing against the fact that IPN10200 might ultimately settle as a credible challenger to GALD''s...
What happened? Ipsen has reported P2 proof-of-concept data from its long-acting toxin candidate IPN10200 which suggest it could become a credible challenger to market incumbents (Botox, Dysport, Relfydess) when it will reach the market by the end of the decade. BNPP Exane View: While more data will be needed to have a definitive view on IPN10200, likely in a scientific conference in 1H26, we see today''s PR as a positive milestone for Ipsen''s toxin franchise as it suggests it might have a proper challenger to category leaders Dysport/Botox and to some extent to more recent longer-acting compounds such as GALD''s Relfydess. IPN indeed argues that a ''substantial'' majority of patients in the LANTIC P2 trial (moderate-to-severe upper facial lines) experienced a statistically significant clinical response at week-24 while Relfydess'' response was at best slightly below the 50%-mark on the same endpoint. . IPN10200 is IPN''s shot at a ''best-in-class'' toxin across aesthetics and therapeutics. Recall, IPN10200 is a recombinant, first-in-class molecule designed for enhanced receptor affinity and internalization with the aim of delivering longer duration of effect. Today, Ipsen has reported the first P2 proof-of-concept (POC) data in aesthetics (LANTIC in moderate to severe upper facial lines) with therapeutics POC data expected to be reported in 2H27. . P2 POC data suggest best-in-class profile in sight. While we will have to wait for a scientific conference in 1H26 to see hard clinical data, IPN claims that IPN10200 has delivered proof-of-concept P2 data notably supporting superiority to Dysport. Primary endpoint delivered statistically significant improvement response at week 4 vs. placebo but more importantly company claims that a ''substantial'' majority of patients experienced a clinically significant response at week 24 compared to both placebo and Dysport. We note that other ''long-acting'' toxins such as Relfydess/Daxxify have historically reported...
What happened? Ipsen has reported in line 2Q25 sales once again vs Vara consensus helped by a Somatuline beat (7% ahead of expectations) as well as a milestone payment. While we note continued strong performance from Iqirvo and a guidance increase which should drive a slight earnings re-rating, in our view, we remain concerned by underwhelming performances from key drivers across the portfolio and the group''s dependence on Somatuline with its fortune likely to turn as pressure from generics expect to mount over the coming months. BNPP Exane View: While Ipsen 2Q25 looks optically in line on topline, we would argue that it would have been 2% below expectations adjusting for Somatuline 7% beat which continues to benefit from supply shortages from generics. On top of that, we flag that the other revenues have also beaten expectations by c.30% driven by a milestone payment which has helped to offset some underwhelming performances here and there while slightly driving the 10% Core EBIT beat. Indeed, we flag disappointing performances from both Bylvay and Onivyde, respectively 12%/6% below consensus expectations, while the rest of the portfolio is marginally below consensus. Ipsen has raised its guidance for the FY now looking for 7% CER growth on topline and a core EBIT exceeding 32% which suggest MSD upgrade to consensus estimates. Overall, we believe that shares are likely to give credit to the guidance raise, we remain concerned by underwhelming performance of key products across the portfolio and dependency to Somatuline. Key financials . 2Q sales (+11% CER) were in-line with consensus driven by strong sales from both Somatuline (+14.1%, 7% ahead of consensus) and Iqirvo (22%/26% ahead of BNPP/Vara estimates) as well as other revenues (EUR117m, 32%/27% ahead of BNPP/Vara estimates) which benefited from a milestone payment. We expect QandA this afternoon to notably focus on company''s expectations regarding generics pressure over the coming quarters. ....
We have adjusted our estimates ahead of 2Q earnings (31-July) to reflect a slightly more cautious stance regarding Somatuline 2Q dynamics. We do not consider the changes to be material; our rating is unchanged.
Based on IQVIA Rx trends, we expect Ipsen to continue to benefit from supply constraints for Somatuline generics into 2Q25 and from Iqirvo''s strong commercial launch momentum. While the former is unlikely to drive positive earnings revisions moving forward as erosion is set to crystallize sooner rather than later, we see the latter as poised to drive upgrades to conservative cons. FY25 estimates. Overall, our 2Q25 topline estimates sit 2% above consensus. We reiterate Neutral. Somatuline generics supply constraints to benefit 2Q25 earnings While the company''s FY25 guidance factors in some competitive pressure from Somatuline generics, we have yet to see any significant impact from them as the main manufacturer continues to face supply issues. Even though we continue to expect further erosion in the second half of the year, we now assume that Somatuline will grow MSD YoY in 2Q25, helping offset some pressures elsewhere in the portfolio. Iqirvo''s strong commercial momentum to continue Even though IQVIA data are less helpful when it comes to tracking Iqirvo''s progress, we believe that the strong momentum reported in 1Q25 is likely to continue and to prove BBG 2Q25 estimates (EUR27m Iqirvo sales) too conservative. While it is likely too early to expect the company to review Iqirvo''s EUR500m peak sales guidance, we are not ruling out a potential update on its path to approval in PSC, where the drug has recently reported promising P2 data. Our new EUR105 TP reflects modest model changes While our estimates remain broadly unchanged, our increased EUR105 TP (from EUR100) reflects a lower WACC assumption (from 9.5% to 9.25%) as we acknowledge that some of the concerns that led us to adopt a more conservative stance when we relaunched coverage post-Liberation Day have since slightly faded. We continue to assume a slight discount to the company''s own assumption as we continue to see MFN as a significant overhang for Ipsen and the industry.
What happened? Ahead of the ELMWOOD P2 study oral presentation at the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) congress, Ipsen has reported topline data supporting the potential of Iqirvo as an option in a second rare liver disease indication that currently has no approved treatment options. BNPP Exane View: Considering that Iqirvo''s EUR500m peak sales guidance excludes any contribution from potential label-extensions, we see today''s positive P2 data in PSC as incrementally positive to long-term outlook. While it remains to be seen what the next steps for Iqirvo in this indication are, we would argue that the absence of any approved therapeutic options in PSC could potentially open the way for an accelerated approval even though we see a proper P3 trial to be needed as a more likely scenario. . Main primary endpoint confirms Iqirvo''s safety. As a reminder, the P2 ELMWOOD is a placebo-controlled 12-week study evaluating safety and efficacy of Iqirvo (80mg and 120mg) in 68 PSC patients. Primary endpoint was the tolerability of Iqirvo which has been shown to be quite safe with rate of adverse events leading to more treatment discontinuations in the placebo vs treatment arm and serious adverse events only reported in placebo treated patients. Treatment-emergent adverse events were experienced by 68%, 78% and 70% of patients on elafibranor 80 mg, 120 mg and placebo, respectively. . Supportive efficacy across the board with pruritus benefit in higher dose. Efficacy results showed dose-dependent reductions in alkaline phosphatase (ALP) with statistically significant reduction at week 12 compared to placebo with a higher benefit reported with the higher 120mg dose. We note that the press release reports improvements being observed as early as week 4. Additionally, patients treated at the highest dose reported a statistically significant improvement in pruritus compared to placebo. . Competition points to a billion dollars opportunity. Around...
Ipsen continues to benefit from supply constraints for Somatuline generics with 1Q beat (1% above cons) solely dependent on Somatuline''s performance (+8% vs cons). While it is fair to say that generics players have yet to make meaningful progress capacity-wise, we would argue against turning too optimistic as pressure is likely to significantly pick-up over the coming months. We reiterate our Neutral rating on the back of our recent initiation IPSEN: Growth story depends on 2026 pipeline execution as we continue to see pipeline execution in 2025 (LANT P2, fidrisertib pivotal P2, Iqirvo P2 PSC) and to a greater extent in 2026 as needed to turn more constructive. Takeaways from 1Q call (1) Iqirvo''s Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis (PSC) ELMWOOD data will be presented in a late breaking sessions at the EASL conference (7-10 May) an opportunity currently excluded from company''s EUR500m peak sales guidance; (2) limited sign of Somatuline generics supply for now but comp still expects pressure to gradually mount due to Pharmathen regained capacity and Sun Pharma global launch; (3) 40% of Iqirvo''s new patients starts originate from Ocaliva''s switches, i.e. low hanging fruits boosting early launch pace; (4) Cabometyx''s high 1L penetration implies more limited growth outlook with mgmt. pointing to single digit growth moving forward in western markets while remaining confident on EUR700m peak sales opportunity with potential approval in neuroendocrine tumours giving upside to guidance (c.EUR100m opportunity); (5) Confidence in Dysport''s aesthetics FY25 outlook with toxins seen by mgmt. as resilient in depressed consumer sentiment environment. Price target of EUR100 unchanged, implies 9x 2026 PE We have largely left our estimates untouched (apart from aligning Fx with comp expectations; 0% vs -1% before) and derive 2025-30E sales/EPS CAGR of 5/6%. Our 2026 Core EPS forecasts put Ipsen on ~9.4x PE, i.e. a ~20% discount to European large cap pharma reflecting...
What happened? Ipsen has reported in line 1Q25 sales update helped by a Somatuline beat which is unlikely to drive shares in our opinion as we expect mounting generics pressure over the coming quarters. While we note a strong beat of the recently launched Iqirvo, we see mixed performance in the rest of the portfolio which should dampen investors'' enthusiasm. BNPP Exane View: While Ipsen 1Q25 looks optically in line, we would argue that it would have been 2% below expectations adjusting from Somatuline beat which continues to benefit from supply shortages from generics. With pressure expected to mount meaningfully over the coming quarters, we believe that investors will rather focus on the performance of the rest of the portfolio starting with the strong beat of the recently launched Iqirvo supporting Ipsen''s rare liver disease franchise. That said, we expect enthusiasm to be slightly offset by the weaker performances from Onyvide, Cabometyx and from the recently launched Sohonos and Tazverik which continue to struggle to gain traction. With FY25 guidance maintained on both topline growth and core EBIT margin, we see limited earnings estimate revisions to be expected apart from the Fx impact slightly reviewed downward to limited vs +1%. We launched on EU Pharma last night (see PHARMACEUTICALS: Pharma Drama; where do we have conviction?). With respect to Ipsen, we initiated with a Neutral (see IPSEN: Growth story depends on 2026 pipeline execution) as we await pipeline reassurance over the next 18 months to turn more constructive on Ipsen''s LT outlook. Key financials . 1Q sales (+11.6% CER) were 1% above consensus driven by strong sales of Somatuline (+19.1% CER) which were 8% ahead of consensus as it continues to benefit from supply shortages for generic manufacturers in both the US and Europe. We expect QandA this afternoon to notably focus on company''s expectations regarding generics pressure over the coming quarters. . Looking at company''s usual...
While Ipsen''s largest, profitable drug, Somatuline, has benefited from generics supply constraints lately, we expect sales erosion to step up in the near term, which could further expose the underwhelming performance of recent launches (Sohonos and Tazverik). While we believe that Ipsen''s key drivers will allow it to deliver its MSD topline growth outlook over the MT, we await further pipeline reassurance over the next 18 months to turn more constructive on Ipsen''s LT outlook. We initiate at Neutral with a EUR100 TP and balanced EUR121-79 bull-bear valuation. Iqirvo''s EUR500m guidance looks within reach based on our proprietary survey We recently surveyed 30 practising US hepatologists and gastroenterologists, and their feedback indicates strong enthusiasm for the PPAR class in the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). While we note a net preference for Gilead''s Livdelzi perceived superior clinical profile, our survey suggests that Iqirvo should be able to carve out a sizable share (c.40%) of the EUR1.5bn 2L PBC market. Our EUR520m peak sales is based on a slightly more conservative 35% market share but still implies 15% upside to consensus peak sales. Two 2025 catalysts could salvage the FOP franchise and de-risk Neuroscience LT outlook While it is fair to say that Ipsen''s 2026 pipeline looks optically stronger with five P3 trials set to derisk c.EUR800m of pipeline sales, we nonetheless see two notable 2H25 catalysts, starting with the risky fidrisertib FALKON pivotal P2 which could salvage the flawed Sohonos by fully derisking a EUR150m opportunity. We also expect proof-of-concept aesthetics data of the long-acting neurotoxin LANT-AB that could de-risk the long-term outlook of Ipsen''s Neuroscience business. 2025-2030 EPS broadly in line with consensus; EUR100 TP implies 9.5x 2026 PE Our 2026 Core EPS forecast puts Ipsen on 9.5x PE, i.e. a ~20% discount to European large cap pharma reflecting modestly slower growth and its purely search and development...
Ipsen''s strong end to the year largely reflected continued supply constraints for Somatuline generics; our revised forecasts suggest earnings growth will be constrained in 2025 given margin pressures as generics return. However, aside from a write down on Sohonos, the new launches largely performed positively versus expectations, and initial performance of Iqirvo is encouraging. We are optimistic that Ipsen can deliver a sustainable growth outlook supported by business development but see greater upside from our preferred mid-cap pick UCB. Neutral reiterated. Minor net forecast changes; BNPPE 2024-28E sales/EPS CAGR ~6% We have increased our 2025-2028E sales estimates by low single digits reflecting a higher base of Somatuline sales and good Iqirvo performance offset by lowered Sohonos forecasts given the disclosed write-down. Our forecasts assume margin pressure from expected Somatuline erosion leads to broadly flat earnings in 2025 but with margins recovering to Ipsen''s 32% target by 2027. Our forecasts derive 2024-28E sales/EPS CAGR of ~6%. Takeaways from 4Q call (1) Data on long-acting neurotoxin (2H25) to inform pivotal development and give visibility of duration of action; (2) peak sales of Sohonos lowered leading to a write down; (3) an acceleration of Somatuline erosion is expected in 2025 due to improved generic supply and expected launch of Sun Pharma generic; (4) growth of the ex-Somatuline sales expected to accelerate in 2025; (5) an expected 200bp margin contraction reflects loss of high profitability Somatuline sales and expected RandD expenses from new transactions; (6) comments suggest robust Dysport aesthetic demand in 4Q with ''limited'' impact from US softness despite order phasing dragging on Ipsen sales. Price target of EUR115 unchanged; implies 10x 2026 PE Our 2025 Core EPS forecasts put Ipsen on ~11.7x PE, i.e. a ~12% discount to European large cap pharma reflecting modestly slower growth and its purely search and development...
What happened? Ipsen has reported strong 4Q/2H24 financial results. BNPP Exane View: Ipsen has reported strong 4Q sales and 2H profits helped by continued shortages of Somatuline generics and with the key new launches generally performing solidly versus consensus expectations. This was modestly offset by unfavourable Dysport phasing and softer Cabometyx performance. Importantly, sales guidance is broadly consistent with expectations for mid-single sales growth in 2025 despite expected increased pressure on Somatuline and implies modest low single digit upgrades to consensus. More negatively, margin guidance implies 150bps downside risk to consensus margins, thus implying 2-4% risk to consensus EBIT forecasts. However, this needs to be viewed in the context of this largely representing a floor that has historically been exceeded. We expect discussions on today''s call to focus on the extent to which margin guidance reflects investments in the pipeline and new launches versus pressure from Somatuline generics and expectations over timing of return of generic supply given recent Cipla comments that it will remain constrained into 1Q25. With four new drug launches underway there is a solid potential growth story emerging at Ipsen. However, we expect investors to continue to look for evidence of execution on these launches before more value can be attributed to the shares. Key financials . 4Q sales (+12% CER) were 3% above consensus driven by strong Somatuline (+18% CER) sales which exceeded consensus by 21% (and our forecast by 6%), benefitting in the short term from supply shortages of generics. . Offsetting this, both Cabometyx (+8% CER) and Dysport (+2% CER) were below expectations by 5% and 11%, with Dysport impacted in the fourth quarter by adverse shipment-phasing in Middle East and North America. . Sales of the key new launches were generally solid, with Iqirvo, Sohonos and Bylvay each modestly exceeding expectations on an absolute basis,...
We have adjusted our estimates for 4Q trends. We expect Ipsen to continue to benefit from shortage of Somatuline generics in 4Q which will benefit sales and margins. As a result, we raise our 2024 EPS forecasts by ~2%. Medium term, we lower the trajectory of our launch assumptions for Tazverik and Onivyde in 1L mPDAC which lowers 2025-27E EPS by ~3% but with our longer term forecasts unchanged, We do not consider the changes to be material; our rating is unchanged.
Beat and raise hindered by lacklustre performance from launches Ipsen''s 3Q beat and raise was helped by supply shortages for Somatuline generics and management comments point to additional generic competition in the mid-term which is likely to offset longer term upward changes to forecasts. On top of that, challenging market conditions for Decapeptyl and softer performance from new launches leave much still to prove as Ipsen executes on its new launches. Raising 2024 but slight decrease to future EPS forecasts on Fx, Decapetyl and new launches Although better Somatuline performance leads to minor upgrades to our 2024 forecasts, we have slightly reduced our 2025-2028 Core EPS forecasts by 1-2% to reflect Ipsen''s new portfolios softer 3Q24 performance and current pressures on Decapeptyl. Our FY24 estimates match company''s upgraded guidance that looks for total sales growth of ''greater than'' 8% CER and core operating margin expected to be greater than 31% with respectively 8.7% and 31.4%. We have also reviewed our Fx assumption to match company''s guidance for 1.5% (vs. 1% previously). Takeaways from 3Q call (1) Somatuline should continue to benefit from generics supply constraints in the near term, but new entrants might lead to greater erosion in the MT; (2) Decapeptyl MT guidance is reiterated despite increased competition and pricing pressure; (3) Ocaliva''s potential market withdrawal could be a clear positive for Iqirvio; (4) most of the significant clinical readouts are not expected before 2026. Price target of EUR110 unchanged; implies 12x 2025 PE Our 2024 Core EPS forecasts put Ipsen on ~12.0x PE, i.e. a ~20% discount to European large cap unlikely to narrow down until we see evidence of execution on new launches. We reiterate Neutral.
What happened? Ipsen has reported strong 3Q sales. BNPP Exane View: Ipsen has reported better than expected 3Q sales benefiting from supply shortages for Somatuline generic manufacturers in both Europe and the US. This better performance is expected to continue into 4Q and has led to a raise to guidance, which could lead to ~2% upside to near-term cons. EBIT forecasts. However, with three of the four new drug launches falling short of expectations there are likely to be debates over the quality of this performance and we expect more limited changes to longer term forecasts. We continue to see a solid potential growth story emerging for Ipsen on paper. However, we expect investors to continue to look for evidence of execution on these launches before more value can be attributed to the shares. Key financials . 3Q sales (+9% CER) were 1% above consensus driven by strong sales of Somatuline (+6% CER) which were 17% ahead of consensus benefiting from supply shortages for generic manufacturers in both the US and Europe. Our discussions with Ipsen today suggest that better than expected performance is likely to continue into 4Q. . On the weaker side, Onivyde was 6% below cons. but still grew 20% yoy at CER, Cabometyx (+11% CER) was 4% below cons., driven by order phasing and Decapeptyl (-5% CER) was 9% below cons. on pricing and competitive pressures. Dysport was in-line with expectations. . Sales of the key new launches Iqirvo, Sohonos, and Tazverik were all below consensus expectations by 12-60%. Although these numbers remain small, those slower launches are likely to dampen upside to the shares based on today''s performance. More positively, Bylvay sales were in-line with consensus. Guidance . FY24 guidance has been raised and looks for total sales growth of ''greater than'' 8% CER (vs. 7% previously) but with FX dragging on this by an increased 1.5% headwind (vs. 1% previously) with core operating margin now expected to be greater than 31% (vs. 30%...
We have adjusted our estimates for Fx moves and 3Q trends. The net impact of these changes to our forecasts is minimal. We do not consider the changes to be material; our rating is unchanged.
We have adjusted our estimates for Ipsen''s 2Q and 1H 2024 results and its upgrade to guidance. In addition, we factor in an expected launch of new drug tovorafenib in 2026, with EUR100m of peak sales based on Ipsen''s ex US licensing deal with Day One Biopharmaceuticals. The net impact of these changes is to raise our sales and Core EPS forecasts by low single digits. We do not consider the changes to be material; our rating is unchanged.
We have adjusted our estimates for 2Q trends and Fx. This has limited impact on our forecasts which are largely unchanged. We do not consider the changes to be material; our rating is unchanged.
We have adjusted our estimates for Ipsen''s FY results and 1Q trends with overall modest net changes. We do not consider the changes to be material; our rating is unchanged.
Ipsen’s Q3 sales came in slightly below the consensus estimates. Neuroscience continued its healthy momentum, while Oncology reported modest gains as strong growth for the ‘patented’ oncology portfolio was almost offset by Somatuline’s erosion. Nevertheless, the 2023 guidance was unchanged. On the back of healthy performance across the existing offerings, an impressive pipeline and enough financial muscle to advance the external innovation strategy, our positive recommendation remains intact.
Ipsen’s Q2 sales came in ahead of expectations. Neuroscience continued its strong momentum and even ‘patented’ Oncology managed to offset the decline for an off-patent drug. More importantly, the 2023 guidance was also upgraded. Overall, considering the healthy momentum for the existing drugs along with a slew of readouts in the near term and the balance sheet flex to pursue an external innovation strategy, our positive recommendation is maintained.
Ipsen’s Q1 sales numbers came in ahead of street expectations. Healthy growth was witnessed in Neuroscience, while Oncology also ended on positive note, despite Somatuline’s erosion and a weaker Onivyde. Notably, despite the material erosion in Somatuline, the 2023 guidance remained unchanged. Overall, with a slew of readouts in the near term, along with impressive pipeline and strong balance sheet to pursue external innovation strategy, our positive recommendation is maintained.
Ipsen’s Q4 results came in ahead of expectations. Growth was driven by Neuroscience, but was partly offset by Oncology. Notably, despite a material erosion in Somatuline, the firm managed to report promising CER growth. Moreover, 2023 guidance seems encouraging despite further erosion of Somatuline due to generics. Overall, considering a promising portfolio/pipeline, and balance sheet flex (to pursue further growth), our positive recommendation is maintained.
Updating model for Albireo acquisition and including competitive analysis on Bylvay We include inside this report our initial analysis of the commercial opportunity and competitive profile of newly acquired drug Bylvay. While we retain some caution on the near-term commercial opportunity for Bylvay in Alagille Syndrome and retain our Neutral rating, we see the beginnings of a post 2023 growth story emerging. Execution following three major acquisitions in the last 12 months (Albireo, Epizyme and elafibranor) will be key to building confidence in this. Expanding rare disease presence and leveraging US infrastructure Our updated forecasts reflect placeholder 2027E sales of Bylvay of EUR290m with upside longer term to EUR550m if the biliary atresia (BA) indication is approved (likely in ''26/27). We view the main uncertainty as Ipsen''s ability to take share from competitor Livmarli in the ALGS indication given relatively limited differentiation and its late entrance. Results of an ongoing Phase 3 trial in BA (most likely in 2026) will be key to delivering strong double digit EPS and value accretion from the deal. Post 2023 growth story emerging - execution now key Our revised EBIT/EPS forecasts are ~8% below consensus given dilution from the transaction. However, we expect the deal to achieve double digit EPS accretion by 2027 even with sales well below Albireo analyst consensus, which did not reflect expected delays to approval of Bylvay in BA (we assume ''27 launch due to plans to expend enrolment to the P3). Most importantly, our revised forecasts point to a more compelling potential post 2023 growth story (''23-27E EPS CAGR ~9%). 13x 2023 PE in return for a 2023-26E EPS CAGR of 9% Ipsen''s shares trade at a ~10% discount to European large cap pharma despite potential faster earnings growth (2023-27E EPS CAGR of ~9% vs ~6%) and a 35% discount to our favoured mid cap UCB. However, normalising for Ipsen''s MandA based RandD strategy suggests its shares are...
Ipsen’s Q3 sales came in ahead of both the AV and consensus expectations. Healthy growth was witnessed in Neuroscience while Oncology was resilient, despite’s Somatuline’s erosion. While Somatuline headwinds remain an unchanged reality, given the healthy momentum for the existing offerings, a strong line-up of potential assets and balance sheet flex to further expedite (external) innovation initiatives, Ipsen remains a well-differentiated and attractive small pharma in our coverage.
Ipsen reported strong Q2 results, exceeding the company-compiled estimates. Despite generics posing a threat to its lynchpin drug i.e. Somatuline, the promising trends for other offerings and less severe generics-driven headwinds prompted a guidance upgrade. Add to this the various other near-term readouts and balance flex being put to good use via the pursuit of newer growth bets and this French small pharma remains a very attractive sector bet.
Ipsen reported healthy Q1 22 sales, with good performances in both Neuroscience and Oncology. Despite generics posing a strong threat to Somatuline, management has reiterated its 2022 guidance. On the back of a strong pipeline of internal assets, an effective external innovation strategy and important data readouts in H2 22, Ispen has become an attractive pharma / oncology bet, especially considering today’s sell-off.
Ipsen reported strong Q4 and 2021 results, with robust growth across neuroscience and oncology. Margins improved further and the dividend was increased by 20%. Going forward, despite the expected loss of sales for Somatuline, given the risk of generics, Cabometyx’s label expansion along with the strong performance for other key drugs should support business momentum. Moreover, a strong pipeline and various external innovation agreements covering high-potential areas should render further support to Ipsen’s investment case. A positive stock recommendation should be reinstated.
Ipsen reported a healthy set of Q3 sales numbers. The limited impact of generics coupled with strong uptake/recovery across all segments resulted in a FY21 guidance upgrade. Moreover, recent collaborations should result in the targeting of additional newer growth avenues. Overall, with the new strategy in place, it seems that this French small pharma is on course to regain its lost glory.
Ipsen’s rare bone disease asset, Palovarotene, has hit yet another regulatory setback – filing has been withdrawn after US FDA demanded additional phase III data. Although the group plans to re-submit the filing, Palovarotene’s US launch is pushed back into 2022 and, considering that the high-margin drug was partially expected to fill the revenue hole due to the upcoming generic erosion of Somatuline, the news has not been taken well by the markets. A value-accretive deal could reignite investors’ interest, though execution risk remains.
Benefiting from the gradual lifting of confinement measures, Ipsen reported a robust sales acceleration in Q2 with the neurosciences and oncology franchisees leading the gains. The margin advanced considerably, led by operational leverage and strict cost management. Importantly, FY21 sales and profitability targets have been raised, assuming a progressive recovery from the pandemic. Although the upcoming generic erosion of Somatuline continues to be a risk, new drug approvals and the recently-strengthened R&D pipeline should ensure sustained growth in the mid-term.
Benefiting from strong demand for Cabometyx and Dysport, sales momentum accelerated for Ipsen in Q1 21. Importantly, Cabometyx, in combination with Opdivo, has been approved as a first-line of treatment for renal cell carcinoma, and this is quite encouraging. Although the phased launch of Somatuline’s generic (expected by mid-2021) is a key risk, management reiterated its FY21 guidance.
Benefiting from the resilience of the oncology franchisee, sales momentum accelerated in Q4 and the FY20 targets were exceeded. Assuming the phased launch of Somatuline’s generic in Europe, management seems cautious with its FY21 outlook, but considering that the generic is going through a slow and staggered launch, upgrades can’t be ruled out. Label extension of Cabometyx should also lend support. Given the firepower of €1.3bn, management’s focus is to replenish the pipeline through external innovation.
