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The (very late) release of the FY22 numbers as well as the Q1 23 top-line number are rather disappointing, but this is not the main issue. The outlook points to another tough year and nothing seems to have changed from a commercial standpoint. Far worse, auditors have raised concerns about the refinancing of the group (in September 2023 and FY25). Given the lack of transparency and progress in the turn-around of the group, we stop coverage of the stock.
Solocal Group Solocal Group
The group released a mixed set of figures for Q3 22. The ARPA was stable but churn was on the rise and sales were still down organically. As expected, the group needs more time before growth resumes. We will fine-tune our numbers after this release.
The Q2 22 results were disappointing, particularly at the topline level Margins remain high, but the group has so far failed to return to growth The mid-term targets do not seem to be at risk at this stage, but patience is required We give the group the benefit of the doubt… so far
Q1 22 revenues were in line with expectations, i.e. a tick lower yoy, while the FY guidance was maintained. The churn rate looks under control. The reorganization of the salesforce is making progress It will take more time for growth to resume. Expect no big changes to our numbers after this release.
The activity seems to be stabilising, with both the churn rate and the share of subscriptions up. The profit level boosted by cost-cutting is up and the FCF enables a reduction in net debt. The outlook is not too demanding and the group should “easily” reach its FY 22 targets. Probably no big change to our numbers after the release. The stock remains a bet on the resumption of growth, now that the financial restructuring is behind us.
Q3 21 revenues were in line with the market’s expectations Some KPIs (churn rate, subscription rate) sent positive signals The mid-term targets look rather conservative to us We will not change our numbers much after this release
H1 21 numbers roughly in line Revenues are stabilising while margins look fine The group will present its strategic roadmap on 20 October It will take some time for the group to get back to growth
The Q1 21 revenues were in line with expectations The customer basis is starting to stabilise with the churn rate decreasing We expect a resumption of growth in H2 21 and, most of all, FY22 We will not change our estimates after this release
The FY20 results came in line with expectations The group is still impacted by the pandemic The churn rate, albeit stabilised, remains too high Not much to expect for FY21, which will be a transitional year before growth resumes
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