Take-up was up in European Offices in Q3 21, however vacancy was stable sequentially and lfl growth was negative, especially in France (-4%). Residential Germany was the key driver of the consolidated 0% lfl
Companies: Covivio SA
It looks like the crisis hasn’t impacted Covivio that much. However, both rising vacancy and incentives in the region of Paris in Q2 21 (offices) are a persisting concern. Short-term catch-up continues.
Aside both the unsurprising performances of Hotels (-46%, but RevPar down 84%) and German Residential (+3.4%), European Offices were down 1.1% lfl in Q1 21. Our estimate was a positive 0.5% in Q4 20. Revenue now embarks the rising vacancy of Q2-Q3 20 in full.
The first cracks were confirmed in peripheral locations as far French offices were concerned. Hotels were experiencing the all but surprising collapse without accounting for a strong cut in book values. German residential was supporting the big picture.
The increasing vacancy was the premise of negative organic performance as from Q4 20 in the Office segment. Some recent deliveries could mask an organic decline for a while (Offices), as far as consolidated figures are concerned.
Values were almost stable in H1 20. Neither valuers nor the transaction market itself acted in the new reality. We observed a yield compression of 10-20bp on the full portfolio despite negative macros.
Forget the insignificant (good) Q1 20 figures. The current discount of c. 40% vs. the latest NAV (December 2019) will be consumed by progressive dilution (dividend in scrip), write-off of GAV (10-15% as a minimum), and a remaining ex-post discount of 20-25% only. The safety harness looks therefore insufficient, should values be down by more than the above-mentioned 10-15% mark.
Covivio decided to buy the listed Godewind in Germany, or a fully cash €1.2bn deal. It will extend its European Offices platform (France / Italy) following its successful residential German investment and alongside its Hotels branch. The recent share price catch up, from €90 in August 2019 to €110 today, translates the global shareholders’ race for yield, pushing the market to value Offices well above NAVs. The party continues.
The share now trades far above its latest NNNAV. Even if we do not detect an emergency, we believe that some end-markets are at risk. We do not identify a buy opportunity on Covivio and stick to our negative stance.
The positive revaluations were close to zero in both French and Italian Offices, once the pipeline’s contribution is excluded. The good news was… Berlin and its 9% value growth in H1 19 vs. December 2018, thanks both healthy lfl growth and very strong additional yield compression. However, the full impact of the rent-freeze policy is not included at all. The next imprtant date being February 2020 (FY 19 figures), the market will keep in mind today’s good news for a while.
Nice quarter with positive news on the organic growth front as well as on the pre-let ratio concerning 2019 expected deliveries. Capital gains (margin) on disposals are now close to the neutral area, but we do not expect massive negative revaluations by the end of H1 19 according to Q1 figures. However, the market cannot expect significant valuation improvements on the standalone portfolio (excluding pipeline delivery). Released EPS momentum will slow from H2 19.
Covivio is an other property company to announce (slight) deleveraging. This behaviour is now spreading to all asset classes as Covivio owns offices (Grand Paris, Italy), homes (Germany), hotels (Europe). Compression yield probably stopped on H2 18 (Offices/France). Germany shows another strong year with additional 12% revaluation.
FdR released its FY17 results. Rental income increased by 3.9% yoy at €927.4m, with a portfolio valued at €21bn (+10% yoy). The company has agreed to sell €1.4bn worth of assets to reduce its exposure to Telecom Italia and the non-core offices in France. FdR also extended its Spanish exposure, with the acquisition for €559m of 17 hotels. Overall, the published numbers were above our expectations.
FdR published an H1 recurring net profit of €198.3m, up 12% yoy. Rental revenues recorded 3% growth (organic +1.9%, of which 4% from German residential). The occupation rate stood at 96.6%. LTV was around 42.9% vs. 44.6% in FY16.
With acquisitions in Berlin, Milan, Barcelona and Madrid, the portfolio value increased by 9% yoy (3% lfl), standing at €21bn. EPRA NAV was up a notable 10% to €6.6bn (€88.4 per share). The development pipeline reached €4.1bn, of which 83% in offices (Paris, Milan, Ly
We have updated our model on FDR following the €508m worth of acquisitions made in Q1 and the €400m capital increase.
Acquisitions were primarily made in Spanish Hotels (€305m at yield 5.7%) and in German Resi for €180m at a yield 3.8%, and finally €22m in Italy at a yield 6%.
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Agronomics is an investment company focused on investing in the cellular agriculture sector. The sector is responding to global mega-trends driving increased demand for animal protein, which in turn could lead to negative environmental effects. Cultivated meat, for example, uses cell culture technology to grow cells in bioreactors producing differentiated cells (such as muscle and fat cells) that can be formed into consumer food products. These technologies have the promise of producing animal p
Companies: Agronomics Limited
Duke's H1/22A results give evidence that FY22E will be a record year, with a strong rebound from Covid-19 disruptions, with impressive YoY growth across all metrics. Having already completed all forecast deployments for FY22E, our forecasts are well underpinned and upgraded by +9% today. Comments of Duke having its healthiest ever pipeline with near-term deals likely, suggests further upgrades could be possible this year. If seen, any improvement in FCF p/s is likely to drive DPS uplifts, in add
Companies: Duke Royalty Limited
We update our forecasts to take account of (1) Group 2020/2021 Annual Report & Accounts released in September (2) 1Q IMS released in October (3) End October 2021 FUM update in early November. Key points include:
Group Funds Under Management “FuM” remain circa US$11 bn; in October there was a small uptick which may indicate small net inflows.
Strong investment performance across CLIG’s investment strategies (Exhibit 3 shows performance over 5 years relative to peers and benchmarks).
Companies: City of London Investment Group PLC
Companies: Oakley Capital Investments
Evidencing the strength of Belvoir’s long-term growth strategy and the very buoyant conditions in the UK housing market in 2021, the company has detailed that trading in the ten months to the end of October was ahead of expectations. Lettings income was up 21% and Housing Sales income up 65%, driving total Property gross profit up 29%. Financial Services gross profit increased 39%. We have upgraded FY 2021E EPS by 3%. While we maintain our view that next year will likely see more normal housing
Companies: Belvoir Group PLC
i(x) Net Zero, the investing company which focusses on Energy Transition and Sustainability in the Built Environment, announces its intention to join AIM. Following Admission, the Company intends to use the net proceeds of the proposed Fundraising to provide development and expansion capital to certain of its investee companies, for future investments in companies that fall primarily within its areas of interest in Energy Transition and Sustainability in the Built Environment and to provide work
Companies: TGN AFC COIN COIN HL/ OMI
Liontrust has reported a strong, in line H1 performance (+93% adj. PBT) on continued organic growth including £2.1bn net inflows YTD, as well as a full period contribution from Architas. The H1 outturn has covered 47% of our FY adj. PBT estimate, which we leave unchanged. AuM has continued to grow: +2.2% to £36.5bn in Q3 so far – momentum has been sustained. We think the valuation is not challenging given the outlook for growth. We set a 2450p 12m Target Price (18x FY23e PER) and a BUY recommend
Companies: Liontrust Asset Management PLC
Liontrust has announced the acquisition of Majedie – developing further scale (£42bn+ proforma AuM). Consideration is up to £120m; initially £80m in shares – equating to 1.4% EV/AuM and 9x EV/EBITDA post-cost synergies. It also diversifies Liontrust into the institutional channel without creating risk to existing economics, whilst also creating a distribution opportunity for Liontrust into the institutional space and Majedie into the UK intermediary space. We update our forecasts for the acquisi
Following the recent release of MJ Hudson's (MJH) FY21A results, we update our FY22E forecasts (Adj EBITDA raised from £7.1m to £7.5m) and release new forecasts for FY23E (Adj EBITDA of £9.0m). Macro drivers remain highly favourable for MJH (eg increasing investment into alternatives, heightened focus on regulation and governance etc), which should support continued strong growth over the coming years (annual organic revenue growth expected to be in the mid-teens for each of FY22E and FY23E). Ou
Companies: MJ Hudson Group Plc
Caracal Gold (GCAT LN) has signed two agreements to acquire assets in Tanzania, amongst the Northern Greenstone belts, which are host to numerous multi- million-ounce deposits, as part of the growth strategy to secure 50kozpa of production and over 2mnoz in compliant resources. The acquisition of development and advanced exploration assets sees the company rapidly realising its ambitious stated aims. The Nyakafuru project was advanced by Resolute Mining (RSGR LN) between 1992 to 2017 while the n
Companies: Caracal Gold PLC
Gore Street Energy Storage Fund (GSF) has announced that Kilmannock, one of the Company’s ROI
assets in construction, has secured an additional grid connection volume allocation of 90MW (in
addition to the 30MW). The initial 30MW benefits from a six-year fixed price contract, while the
remaining capacity can primarily derive revenues from extra capacity which could be used forwholesale
trading or the volume uncapped DS3 market (Delivering a Secure Sustainable Electricity System). GSF
Companies: Gore Street Energy Storage Fund PLC
Companies: Chrysalis Investments Limited
Mercia reported a strong rise in the NAV of its Northern Venture Trust (NVT) subsidiary, reflecting the IPO of musicMagpie and other successful exits, leading to Mercia receiving a net performance fee of £1.6m. As a result, together with Mercia’s substantially recurring management fees, management expects H122 PAT to exceed £10m, with the FY22 adjusted operating profit (excluding the NVT net performance fee) expected to be materially ahead of market forecasts. The shares trade at a larger discou
Companies: Mercia Asset Management PLC
Companies: NewRiver REIT plc
Gore Street’s confirmation of a 90MW capacity increase at Kilmannock is a clear positive in our view and takes the fund’s portfolio to over 600MW of projects either operating or under construction. These are split between the GB market and the all-Ireland market with the fund now owning the largest portfolio of storage assets in Ireland. In the GB market price volatility continues to be strong and we expect the fund’s assets to be benefiting from this.