The Q1 20 figures from the old world were unsurprisingly good with a stable revenue, lfl. As Hammerson confirmed today that Orion decided not to buy its £400m retail parks in the UK, we can assume that all other players will experience some difficulties in selling assets in the coming quarters. How will Klépierre’s balance sheet react to the crisis?
Erosion of Gross Asset Value was 1.1% in H2 19 (at constant perimeter) and 2% over FY 19. Don’t wait for a strong share price rebound but annual dividend yield looks safe (c.7%) as the retailer’s sales stand in positive territory (+1.8% for FY 19).
Except for France (36% of revenue) at +0.7% lfl, stable below inflation, the bulk of Klépierre’s tenants revenue showed an acceleration all over Europe. The key accelerations were located in Germany, Italy and Scandinavia.
Klepierre experienced a slight negative revaluation of 0.9% in its full €24bn portfolio in H1 19. The rate does not look harsh, but it could last. For now, more than some peers, the group is protected by its 3% lfl growth in rents. All in all, the NNNAV was down 3.6% in six months despite its resilient rents.
Klepierre released nice 3% organic growth in Q1 (rents). However, we focus on tenants’ sales growing by only 0.3%, well under the 0.9% FY 18 growth and the 2.5% CAGR applied by valuers to Klepierre’s mid-term rents.
FY18 underlying cash flow per share: €2.65. Guidance >€2.62.
Dividend up to €2.10 from €1.96 implying a 6.9% yield.
Assets revaluation (excluding capital gains): H1 was +1.3%, FY18 +1.5%. This reflects the first 10bp decompression in yields after years of compression, from 4.8% to 4.9% on shopping centres.
NNNAV not disclosed. NAV of €40.5 per share vs. €39.50 in H1 18 and €39.6 at the end of 2017.
Key points in Q4, tenants’ sales: France -0.3% (35% of revenue, Yellow Vests induced slowdown), +2.3% excluding France; slight improvement in Germany (4% of revenue): +0.1% FY18 vs. -0.8% 9M18.
Klépierre recorded a good Q3 operational performance, despite a challenging retail environment.
Following the latest rumours in the market, Klépierre’s bid offer on Hammerson is no longer a secret. On Monday (19 March), Klépierre confirmed that it had made a proposal to the board of Hammerson a fortnight previously, walking in the footsteps of Unibail and its €24.7m Westfield deal. It has proposed a £5bn takeover offer at a value of 615p per Hammerson share, the Board of which has immediately rejected the offer.
Klépierre reported its FY17 results, revenues increased by 1.6% yoy (in line with our estimates) to €1,321m. Shopping centre NRI was up by 3.3% on an organic basis. The commercial portfolio value reached €23.4bn (c. 98% of the total portfolio), with 4% lfl compared to FY16. The LTV remained stable at 36.8%, thanks to the rise in property values. We remain optimistic following the good set of numbers.
Klépierre released its Q3 figures. Gross rental income rose by 1.8% to €924.4m over 9 months. Shopping centres’ gross rental income was up by 2.1% yoy. Leasing activity accounted for 1,440 leases signed at 30 September 2017 (against 1,356 leases yoy). Net debt was quasi stable, at €9.1bn, with cost of debt reduced to 1.8%.
Klépierre posted H1 revenues of €654.5m, slightly up by 100bp yoy. Net rental income from shopping centres stood at €527.1m, up by 1.22% (2.7% lfl). EPRA NAV was €37 per share, against €34.80 a year earlier. Net debt stood at €9,134m, up by 6% since FY16. This increase is mainly attributable to the dividend payment, leading Klépierre’s LTV to 38.2% at June 2017. In H1, the cost of financing was 1.9%.
We have updated our model on Klepierre’s FY16 numbers. The published figures are marginally in line with our expectations and we maintain our positive stance on the stock.
As a reminder:
• Shopping centre NRI stood at €1.05bn gaining 1.7% yoy (+3.5% lfl), and standing +320bp ahead of the index.
• EPS at €2.31, +6.8% yoy, exceeded the guided €2.23-2.25, and stood ahead of our expected €2.28. The proposed dividend was €1.82, +7.1% yoy, and net debt lowered by €244m, leading to a 2.1% decrease in cost of debt.
• EPRA NAV per share at €36.7, gained +5.9% yoy while the group’s GAV at €22.8bn, gained 4.5% lfl.
Management expects a positive FY17, despite a relatively stable macro environment and limited indexation. EPS is seen at €2.35-2.40.
Klepierre has published solid H1 16 figures with EPS standing at €1.16, up 8.6% yoy, ahead of our FY expectations. Shopping centre net rental income grew by +2.8% lfl , outperforming the index by 250bp, and Retailer sales grew by +2.6% lfl.
EPRA NAV stands €34.8 per share, up 8.7% and above our €33 18-month forward NAV, and the group’s GAV is up 4.8% lfl to €22.6bn.
The financial position remains strong with cost of debt down 30bp to 2.6%, the LTV at 39.1% remains stable, and net debt now stands at €9.1bn, down from €9.4bn.
Management has revised the EPS guidance to the upper end of the expected €2.23 to €2.25 range for FY16.
Klepierre published strong FY15 figures. The NRI stood at €1,068m, up 3.4% lfl (an acceleration from the 2.8% in H1 15) and 300bp above indexation. EPS stood at €2.16, the upper end of the targeted €2.10-2.15. This is ahead of our expected €2.14/share. And the announced dividend at €1.70/share is in line with our expectations.
The NAV per share stood at €34.7, up 8%, beating our expectations and now only 0.5% below our 18-month forward NAV expectations.
Management now guides for EPS of €2.23 to €2.25 for FY16.
Klepierre published a strong set of figures for H1 15. Pro-forma organic NRI stood at €525.2m, up 2.8% despite close to no indexation (+0.4%), with +3.5% from Old Klepierre assets and +1.4% from ex-Corio. EPS gained 1.4% to €1.07 and total portfolio value was up by 2.3% to €21.9bn, (o/w €18.9bn GS) and EPRA triple net NAV gained 4.2% to €30.9. The integration of Corio is moving fast and delivering the planned synergies. Management currently expects more than the €20m of synergies initially guided for FY15.
Occupier conditions remained strong with same-store sales up by 3.2% or 3.8% including extensions and the financial structure was optimized with: cost of debt now at 2.5% (closer to Unibail’s 2.2%), a higher debt maturity at 5.6 years and a stable LTV at 40%.
Management has revised its EPS guidance for the FY15 moving to the upper end of the previously guided EPS of €2.10-2.15; we had been expecting €2.14.
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A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
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Accelerating activity in to FY21
Companies: Manolete Partners
With a new CEO, Amanda Blanc, Aviva’s shareholders could dream of a possible change in the group’s strategy, with a more focused insurance business. The new Chief has an opportunity to take painful decisions in a year where no one will require a high operating performance.
Companies: Aviva Plc
The Native Antigen Company (“NAC”) has been acquired by LGC for up to £18.0m – with the ongoing COVID pandemic highlighting the value of knowledge and execution in the infectious diseases space. Mercia invested in NAC via both its balance sheet and 3rd party funds. The exit represents a strong return for both sources of capital, validating complete connected capital to optimise value creation. For the balance sheet stake, the £5.2m proceeds represent a £2.5m gain on realisation (c.1.5% of our FY21e NAVps). Final Results will be announced next week, when we will review our forecasts. The shares are currently trading at a 45% discount to NAV (which is 20% cash). Today’s exit demonstrates justification for a much narrower discount, if not a premium, to conservative carrying values.
Companies: Mercia Technologies
Trading Well in Tough Market
Companies: Palace Capital
HgCapital Trust’s (HGT) 12-month NAV TR to end-March 2020 was a solid 13.8% despite the COVID-19 market downturn in March 2020 (ytd NAV performance since end-December 2019 was a 6.2% decline). The coverage ratio reached a historically low level (13% vs three-year average of 53%) after HGT notably increased its investment activity and commitments in Q120. However, a significant part of these new commitments will not be drawn in the near term. The board continues to review its future funding arrangements and may also opt out of a new investment without penalty across all funds. HGT’s portfolio focus is on the resilient software and technology sector and the manager expects a limited direct earnings impact on its portfolio from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Companies: Hgcapital Trust
Hot on the heels of the Architas acquisition – announced 1st July, Liontrust has issued in line final results (£38.1m adj. PBT vs £38.3m consensus, 24p second interim dividend). An accompanying trading update also confirms that AuM bounced back in Q1 as markets recovered and net inflows were sustained at a record £971m for the quarter. The Architas acquisition – once completed later this year – stands to drive Liontrust through the £25bn AuM mark and bolster the existing multi-asset product offering and wider appeal to the current client base. As joint corporate broker, we have withdrawn forecasts pending the approval of the acquisition at the forthcoming general meeting.
Companies: Liontrust Asset Management
Ground Rents Income Fund (GRIO) has today released its interim results for the period ending 31 March 2020. The fully diluted NAV is 110.1p down marginally from previous NAV of 111.3p as at 30 September 2019 year-end. This valuation included a material valuation uncertainty clause as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has subsequently been removed since the period end for long dated ground rent valuations given the defensive nature of the income streams and continued market/transactional activity. The latest valuation represented a decrease on a like for like basis of £0.36 million or -0.3%. Two Interim dividends were paid during the six-month period ending 31 March totalling 1.98p, and a further dividend of 0.99p has been declared today (ex 16 July / payable 10 August). Dividend cover excluding the non-recurring litigation costs on Beetham Tower was 90%. Assuming a full year dividend of c4p this puts the shares on a flat yield of 4.9% and a discount of 26%.
Companies: Ground Rents Income Fund
Equals' FY19A results confirm another year of strong, double-digit revenue and adj EBITDA growth. The move to a B2B focused offering continues to progress and looks well timed in view of Covid-19's impact on overseas travel. While the pandemic impacted Q2/20E trading early on, we note June KPI's indicate a positive rebound. Given the continued uncertainty as to Covid's full impact upon FY20E trading, we refrain from reissuing forecasts and thus leave our recommendation under review.
Companies: Equals Group
ICGT, the 39-year listed private equity (PE) investor, has delivered a total NAV return of 178% over 10 years (comparable FTSE All Share return 61%). Since Intermediate Capital became the manager in 2016, ICGT has earned mid-teen p.a. underlying returns every year. This has been achieved by leveraging the attractive PE market with incremental manager synergies. It has a concentrated portfolio of “high-conviction” investments (19% p.a. average returns over five years, 42% of portfolio, defensive growth focus) and a diversified third-party PE funds book. ICGT manages over-commitment tightly. The 33% discount to NAV is above peers.
Companies: ICG Enterprise Trust
Numis’ update for Q320 was positive, reflecting both the need for equity funding in the market and the strength of the group’s franchise as well as its ability to deal with current operating constraints. Subject to the market background in its final quarter, we now expect Numis to achieve a full-year result in line with or ahead of the high end of our previous scenario range.
Companies: Numis Corporation
The covid-19 pandemic has had a devastating effect on the share price of property companies, with 31% wiped off the value of their total market capitalisation during the first quarter of 2020.
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Much has been written about the effects of the virus on the world and on the stock market. Here is one analyst’s take on some of the likely impacts on the way we should look at companies. This article was originally produced as a blog, “10 Changes Post Virus”, which was published a few weeks ago.
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Tatton passed the March 2020 market-crash stress-test with flying colours. Financial advisers continued to trust it with their clients’ money – net fund inflows were £86m in March (just under the FY20 average of £94m pm) – at a time when many funds saw record outflows. Over FY20 Tatton recorded £1.1bn of inflows, and despite the market bottom nearly coinciding with the 31-Mar year-end, AUM closed 10% above FY19 on £6.7bn. Revenue grew 22% to £21.4m; adjusted operating profit was up 24% to £9.1m; PAT jumped 72% from £4.9m to £8.4m; and full-year dividend increased 14% from 8.4p to 9.6p, a yield of 3.3%. Tatton remains debt-free with £12.8m of net cash.
Companies: Tatton Asset Management
We are introducing our Best Ideas for 2019 and also review the performance of last year’s picks. We suggest ten solidly financed stocks with good business dynamics that ought to be considered for core portfolio holdings and six UK domestically focused stocks that our analysts believe should perform strongly in the event that uncertainties unwind. We also introduce a new style of research from N+1 Singer which presents a Company’s dynamics and metrics in a clear and concise manner and concentrates on the pivotal issues affecting that Company and an investment decision.
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