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Companies: ERA ERA BRES GLEN AMRQ
SP Angel
Manganese (Mn) is an essential metal with numerous applications across various industries, particularly in the production of steel and stainless steel, and its growing use in electric vehicle (EV) battery technology. Nearly 90% of manganese produced globally is used in the steel industry. Manganese alloys impart properties like hardness and strength in products ranging from automotive steel sheets to construction materials. Manganese also finds chemical applications in fertilizers, batteries, a
Companies: ERA E25 OMH VALE3 ERA ERA S32 ERA AAL OMHI
eResearch
On the occasion of yesterday’s first-ever Capital Markets Day, the group presented its strategy and elaborated on the new growth investments for the years to come. Some of these are under way, the outcome of which will have to be evaluated in terms of opportunity and risk. That said, we remain a bit cautious in the short-term on manganese and nickel, where prices are still depressed owing to the tough macro environment.
Companies: Eramet (ERA:EPA)Eramet SA (ERA:PAR)
AlphaValue
The trading statement for the Q3 23 showed the expected sharp contraction in sales, leading to yet another reduction in the group’s guidance (the fourth in a row). No uptick in prices is expected for Q4. Lower input costs are helping, but the fall in profits is spectacular. We will not change our estimates materially (at least for FY23) since we had expected this negative development. In our view, there is room to improve the group’s communication.
A military coup is going on in Gabon, a key country for Eramet This is where the group mines…100% of its manganese, its biggest segment The outcome of the coup is obviously uncertain, but the negative impact could be massive In any case, expect at least disruptions for this business We will put a discount on the segment, implying a significantly reduced target price given its size
Companies: ERA ERA AAL FRG BHL UFO PREM
Premium
The H1 23 results were significantly below market expectations. Prices were the main trigger for these weak numbers, even if volumes were also down. The FY23 “adjusted EBITDA guidance has, again, been revised downwards despite the strong performance in Weda Bay (38.7% held) which hides a pretty tough year for the rest of the business”. We will revise downwards our numbers for FY23 substantially, as well as going forward in all likelihood.
As expected, revenues in Q1 23 were significantly down on both a yoy and sequential basis. This is mainly due lower prices and somewhat lower volumes in manganese. As a result and considering the current price levels, the group has revised its FY23 EBITDA guidance downward by some 9% on an adjusted basis. We still do not appreciate the new reporting of the group (i.e. adjusted vs reported) which does not help transparency in our view.
Eramet released an expected set of results for FY22, which showed a higher level of profitability and a significant decrease in indebtedness. Looking forward, the context is less favourable due to declining prices but no one expected such operating conditions to last forever. The outlook suggests that our numbers are too high and we will amend these at least for FY23 while we will integrate the first benefits of the Lithium project, whose commissioning is expected in FY24.
The group’s revenues were firmly up in Q3 on a yoy basis. They nonetheless showed a significant slowdown qoq, mainly due to prices, which should remain under pressure in Q4, leading the group to lower its EBITDA guidance for FY22. We will fine-tune our numbers and valuation to the downside, even if the group’s new projects look promising.
The group released a strong set of results for H1 22 These were supported by volumes, but most of all prices The latter should be less favorably oriented in H2 The group marginally increased its FY EBITDA target (from €1.5bn to €1.6bn) We will fine-tune our numbers, with no big changes expected Our TP may look optimistic given the less favorable momentum on commos writ large, even if we feel comfortable with our recommendation
Prices were strong across the board in Q1. The operational performance was also satisfactory. The group has raised its FY22 guidance. We will upgrade our numbers and price target after this release.
The FY21 results came in rather above the group’s guidance. The production of manganese ore, the exports of nickel ore and the production in Weda Bay have all steadily increased. The disposal of Aubert&Duval is good news. Including ongoing disposals, net debt would be a mere €388m. The outlook is unsurprisingly bullish, even if it may be adjusted throughout the year, with current nickel and manganese prices currently very supportive.
Eramet will proceed with the Lithium project in Argentina The group will join forces with Chinese Tsingshan First production is due in FY24 We appreciate the group’s diversification, particularly in “green” raw materials
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Eramet. We currently have 92 research reports from 6 professional analysts.
• The North Flank prospect at Anchois-3 is water wet (ReNAV: £0.03/sh), This has a negative impact on Anchois South (ReNAV: £0.07/sh). • The B sands that were the main appraisal targets were thinner than expected and the deeper C & M sands were water wet, however these were drilled down-dip from the Anchois-2 well where the sands were found gas-bearing. The B sands will not be tested and the main hole will be plugged an abandoned. This has a negative impact on the size of the contingent resource
Companies: Chariot Limited
Auctus Advisors
JOG has released its H1 2024 results, re-confirming the company’s significant cash holding, alongside providing an operational update reporting the progress made in 2024 on Buchan engineering work.
Companies: Jersey Oil & Gas PLC
Zeus Capital
Companies: AZY MPE CHAR NMT ADF
Cavendish
Cadence today provides an update on its licencing and project test work for the plan to produce a single 67% iron product from the Amapá iron ore brownfield restart in Brazil. Licences are all underway following an agreement with the local environment agency to expedite the process as Amapá is a former operating mine; Amapá needs a Mine Extraction and Processing Permit for which it needs an Installation License to begin construction and, when constructed, an Operational License. It also requires
Companies: Cadence Minerals PLC
Companies: PCIP MAI TND JOG EXR
Companies: Good Energy Group PLC
Canaccord Genuity
Union Jack has announced that it has received planning permission for the next phase of its Wressle development project in the UK. This is the key consent for this work programme, and should allow the company to add important new production volumes from this existing producing asset going forward.
Companies: Union Jack Oil Plc
Shore Capital
Companies: 88E AZY IGP ING GELN POLB
The UK industrial sector continues to show promising signs of recovery, with manufacturing PMI reaching a 26-month high of 52.5 in August as all survey indicators but one expanded. Economic data has also been encouraging, with UK pay growth cooling to a two-year low and inflation rising only slightly in July – supporting the case for further interest rate cuts this year by the BoE.
Companies: TAND AVON BMTO CGS GHH PEN SCE RCDO SOLI TRI SYM IGE JDG PEG CSSG ABDP PODP KETL LIFS SPSY
Chariot, Hartshead Resources, Sunda Energy, Afentra, Energean, Serica Energy, Petro Matad, Cadogan Energy Solutions, Bowleven Source: FactSet, weekly change 09/09/2024-13/09/2024 Oil slipped as producers started reviving output after Storm Francine passed, though futures still posted their first weekly gain in a month as the disruptions and risk-on sentiment in wider markets helped ease a previously oversold crude market. West Texas Intermediate slid about 0.5% to settle below $69 a barrel, givi
Companies: HHR SNDA AET CHAR
Sound has announced its H1 2024 results, alongside providing an operational update on its ongoing Tendrara development project in Morocco. The company recently announced a farm out of Tendrara, which should close in the coming weeks and which we expect to leave Sound fully funded for Tendrara Phase 1 and 2 development.
Companies: Sound Energy plc
Companies: SLP ANTO RIO FXPO AAL GEM FAR EML GLEN CEY CMCL YCA BHP LZM TGA EMH EDV
Panmure Liberum
• 1H24 production of 5,851 boe/d had been reported previously. • Pharos has re-iterated its FY24 production guidance of 5.2-6.5 mboe/d. The company expects to spend US$26 mm (net) capex in 2024 (US$27 mm previously). • The highlight of this announcement is the strong financials. While the net cash of US$17.5 mm at the end of June is in line with what had been reported previously, the 1H24 operating cashflow had been negatively impacted by an inventory build of ~US$12 mm. This implies that the ne
Companies: Pharos Energy PLC
Assessments carried out by two independent reserve and resource auditors have confirmed a multi-reservoir discovered resource at Project Phoenix, with combined gross 2C resources of 378mmboe (including 251mmbbls of marketable liquids). The result provides 88E with 159mmbbls of net oil and NGL resources, strategically located next to the Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS), with significant development potential. Upside potential comes from 247mmbbls of gross 2U unrisked prospective resources, br
Companies: 88 Energy Limited
