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Imerys published Q3 results above the market expectations due to better-than-expected pricing and well-delivered cost control. The company remains uncertain about the market recovery at present but did confirm that it will be able to achieve the lower end of its EBITDA guidance (in-line with our estimate) considering its ability to keep yoy prices flat or just slightly negative and through active cost management.
Companies: Imerys (NK:EPA)Imerys SA (NK:PAR)
Q1 23 was marked by lower volumes, offset by increased prices, and management assuring the market that the worse is already behind and that the volume demand is now in recovery mode. However, Q2 saw not just lower volumes, but also decelerating price growth. With ongoing destocking and flat pricing guided by the company, we will downgrade our estimates for FY23.
Imerys delivered a muted Q1 performance in line with the guidance. Revenues were down 0.9% yoy and the current EBITDA was down by 3.4%. The flat performance was mainly due to a 12% volume decline (especially in RAC) which was offset by an 11% increase in prices. Moving forward, the management expects a demand recovery but this will be partially offset by declining prices, since the energy surcharge component is fading.
Imerys published stronger than expected sales and EBITDA figures, but net income was negatively impacted by a goodwill impairment loss, resulting in 8% miss vs our estimate. However, the outlook for FY23 is better than our expectations and, as guided previously, which will lead to a positive revision in our FY23 EPS. The company also announced a FY22 dividend of €3.85/share vs €1.55/share for FY21, which came as a positive surprise.
Imerys gave a comprehensive and well-quantified presentation during the CMD, clarifying a lot of questions after the press release yesterday morning. In short the management provided conservative guidance and, hence, our confidence in the company’s long-term potential remains intact.
Good Q3 results from Imerys. The company saw weakness in demand across multiple end markets and high cost-inflation yet, due to the unique product offering, it was able to further increase its prices resulting in a positive price/cost mix. The company is confident that it can manage the cost inflation going forward and has reiterated its guidance. Since the results and guidance were in line with our estimates, we do not expect to make significant changes to our model.
After months of study and millions of work hours, Imerys has finally shed some light on its lithium project, backing it up with additional numbers. The announcement was better than we had initially expected as a result of which we have augmented the value of the project by €200m in our NAV. To top it off, additional information provided by the company suggests that more treasure can be excavated by Imerys.
Lithium ‘gold’ provides optionality value to Imerys. Added to its well-established expertise in carbon black and graphite, Imerys may surf on the Li-ion battery explosive demand as a key materials supplier. That would be a complete change in the investment proposition from dull to risk growth. More news is expected before the end of this year and most likely at the CMD on 7 November.
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Last week, JOG successfully secured its second GBA farmout, locking in a path to delivering zero-capex barrels. The surprisingly muted share price response to the farm-out leaves JOG trading at an unjustifiably large discount to our valuation. With a material fully funded development project under its belt and a clean balance sheet, JOG presents a very low-cost way to access high quality development barrels for investors and potential acquirers alike. If the threat of M&A does not narrow JOG’s v
Companies: Jersey Oil & Gas PLC
Alien and the Iron Ore Company of Australia (IOCA), continue to lay the foundations for operations at Hancock, one of its direct shipping iron ore (DSO) projects in Western Australia. Progress made to date ensures that, should a positive investment decision be made following the conclusion of Definitive Feasibility Studies (DFS), Hancock will be in operation and generating cashflow soon after capital is invested.
Companies: Alien Metals Ltd
Companies: CPH2 TIDE MRL BRCK JNEO
• With the acquisition of interests in Sygna and Statfjord Øst expected to complete in January, the process to establish a stable well-funded producing business in Norway is almost complete. FY23 production at Sygna and Statfjord Øst net to Longboat Norge is ~250 boe/d.
• The acquisition of 49.9% of Longboat Norge by JAPEX in 2023 provides low cost capital and access to a strong balance sheet to develop further the Kveikje area and make acquisitions at no further dilution to Longboat plc.
Companies: Longboat Energy Plc
CPH2 and ATOME have reached a mutual agreement to cease the previous production order made by ATOME. The CPH2 Board of Directors considers it is in the Company’s best of interests to focus its engineering and installation resources in ensuring roll out Membrane Free Electrolysers with current partners Fabrum Solutions Limited, KCA Deutag and, Northern Ireland Water. As part of the agreement, Molecular Energies has requested, and CPH2 has agreed to, a non-binding framework agreement with G-Mobili
Companies: Clean Power Hydrogen PLC
Jersey Oil & Gas, Serica Energy, Trinity Exploration & Production, Longboat Energy, Ithaca Energy, Neptune Energy, Pantheon Resources, Nostrum Oil & Gas, Kufpec, ORLEN.
Companies: TRIN LBE JOG
The front of this note takes a look at the UK oil and gas sector, why domestic production is advantageous, what the main political parties think, and what could happen going forward. The latter part contains a review of the companies in our coverage – some that are UK centric, which give exposure to the note’s wider theme, and others that are focused elsewhere.
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Companies: Good Energy Group PLC
A summary of our hypothetical “Car Crash” commodity price scenario analysis is outlined in Table 1, which provides increased confidence, we believe, in i3 Energy's capacity to fund its dividend under adverse conditions. Notably, the dividend yield is an attractive 10.3%. Effectively, our analysis reinforces our view that i3 Energy is mispriced. Details for our “Car Crash” commodity price scenario are provided in Tables 2, 3, 4 and 5. We reiterate our 20.9p fair value estimate, which is premised
Companies: i3 Energy Plc
Serabi Gold (AIM: SRB, TSX: SBI), the Brazilian-focused gold producer and developer released an update on its Greenfield Exploration activities in its Palito Complex. The exploration activity has been undertaken as part of the Exploration JV with Vale SA.
The update from the announcement today reflects the high prospectivity of the Palito complex. During the year, the company ran a programme of collecting 5,5k soil samples which have increased their first-pass surface geochemistry coverage
Companies: Serabi Gold PLC (SRB:LON)Serabi Gold PLC (SBI:TSE)
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Companies: HZM BMN ATM CMCL THX EST GROC PRU
Companies: ALL OMI AAU BOD SRB RRR
Tlou has reported first gas to surface from its Lesedi-6 well, representing the fastest time between beginning dewatering and flowing gas for any Lesedi well to date, and helping underpin gas supply for first electricity sales in 2024.
Companies: Tlou Energy Ltd.
Companies: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.