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Imerys published Q3 results above the market expectations due to better-than-expected pricing and well-delivered cost control. The company remains uncertain about the market recovery at present but did confirm that it will be able to achieve the lower end of its EBITDA guidance (in-line with our estimate) considering its ability to keep yoy prices flat or just slightly negative and through active cost management.
Companies: Imerys (NK:EPA)Imerys SA (NK:PAR)
AlphaValue
Q1 23 was marked by lower volumes, offset by increased prices, and management assuring the market that the worse is already behind and that the volume demand is now in recovery mode. However, Q2 saw not just lower volumes, but also decelerating price growth. With ongoing destocking and flat pricing guided by the company, we will downgrade our estimates for FY23.
Imerys delivered a muted Q1 performance in line with the guidance. Revenues were down 0.9% yoy and the current EBITDA was down by 3.4%. The flat performance was mainly due to a 12% volume decline (especially in RAC) which was offset by an 11% increase in prices. Moving forward, the management expects a demand recovery but this will be partially offset by declining prices, since the energy surcharge component is fading.
Imerys published stronger than expected sales and EBITDA figures, but net income was negatively impacted by a goodwill impairment loss, resulting in 8% miss vs our estimate. However, the outlook for FY23 is better than our expectations and, as guided previously, which will lead to a positive revision in our FY23 EPS. The company also announced a FY22 dividend of €3.85/share vs €1.55/share for FY21, which came as a positive surprise.
Imerys gave a comprehensive and well-quantified presentation during the CMD, clarifying a lot of questions after the press release yesterday morning. In short the management provided conservative guidance and, hence, our confidence in the company’s long-term potential remains intact.
Good Q3 results from Imerys. The company saw weakness in demand across multiple end markets and high cost-inflation yet, due to the unique product offering, it was able to further increase its prices resulting in a positive price/cost mix. The company is confident that it can manage the cost inflation going forward and has reiterated its guidance. Since the results and guidance were in line with our estimates, we do not expect to make significant changes to our model.
After months of study and millions of work hours, Imerys has finally shed some light on its lithium project, backing it up with additional numbers. The announcement was better than we had initially expected as a result of which we have augmented the value of the project by €200m in our NAV. To top it off, additional information provided by the company suggests that more treasure can be excavated by Imerys.
Lithium ‘gold’ provides optionality value to Imerys. Added to its well-established expertise in carbon black and graphite, Imerys may surf on the Li-ion battery explosive demand as a key materials supplier. That would be a complete change in the investment proposition from dull to risk growth. More news is expected before the end of this year and most likely at the CMD on 7 November.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Imerys. We currently have 16 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
Since November, the JOG share price has moderated from a high of 250p to current levels of 149.5p. This is despite JOG having now made significant progress towards FID on its c.70mmboe Buchan project, with FID upcoming later this year. In our view this share price move is unjustified, with current levels further enhancing the value on offer, and making an attractive opportunity for investors.
Companies: Jersey Oil & Gas PLC
Zeus Capital
i3 Energy has announced that it has refinanced its Trafigura straight-line amortising facility with a traditional RBL facility provided by a Canadian chartered bank. We believe that i3 Energy's shareholders stand to benefit considerably from the restructured balance sheet because it is significantly better adapted to the company's needs, in our opinion. We believe the new RBL facility will free funds for growth and provide better long-term balance sheet stability, while significantly reducing in
Companies: i3 Energy Plc
WHIreland
i3 has announced a refinancing of its C$75m Trafigura debt facility, increasing liquidity for the company to pursue further growth initiatives. i3 has also announced its end 2023 reserves update, showing significant replacement of production during the year.
Diversified Energy, Touchstone Exploration, Savannah Energy, Chariot, Plexus Holdings, Energean, Gulf Keystone Petroleum, PetroTal Corp, Ithaca Energy, Pantheon Resources, Serinus Energy, Angus Energy, Aker BP, Equinor, BlueNord ASA, Invictus Energy Source: FactSet, weekly change 18/03/24-22/03/24 Oil edged lower to settle below $81 a barrel after a stronger dollar curbed investor appetite for commodities, offsetting signs of a tighter global crude market. Refined product supplies are looking m
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Cavendish
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Canaccord Genuity
Results demonstrate Bretana cash flows that allow growth CAPEX and dividends. PetroTal has produced a solid set of 2023 results. These show the cash flow generating capability of the company’s Bretana field in Peru, which enables PetroTal to both expend growth CAPEX while also making material returns to shareholders.
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
Companies: FOG PEB KBT EMR TIME GETB JNEO
The company's business structure is evolving and diversifying into several compelling and complementary businesses. The opportunistic, potential sale of its producing shallow assets would represent a significant change and the company's openness to realise value from that sale speaks to the company's prioritisation of shareholder interests and shareholder value creation. The current year will be significant for many of the company's growth businesses as they establish their first significant com
Companies: Caspian Sunrise PLC
• YE23 2P reserves were estimated at 11.8 mmboe, including 0.7 mmboe for Canada and 4.6 mmboe non-core, leaving 6.5 mmboe for the company’s core Colombian assets. This compares with 2.1 mmbbl at YE23 plus 3.9 mmbbl for Carrizales Norte reported in September for a total of 6 mmbbl. Adding back 0.6 mmbbl (net) produced at Tapir in 2023 suggests that Arrow has added 1.1 mmbbl at its core Colombian assets since the latest reserve reports (September 2023 for Carrizales Norte and YE23 for the other a
Companies: Arrow Exploration Corp.
Auctus Advisors
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) reported full year earnings with net revenue of US$197m down 12% YoY (-1% against VSA estimate) owing to lower commodity prices and modestly lower output albeit comfortably within guidance. EBITDA of US$97m was down 27% YoY marginally below our estimate as the lower top line combined with inflationary pressure. However, group COGS ex-D&A increased 8% YoY, far lower than in-country inflation. A flagged increase in taxation in Kazakhstan meant that net income was US$3
Companies: Central Asia Metals Plc
VSA Capital
Companies: Diversified Energy Company PLC
Tennyson Securities
• FY23 production, YE23 net cash and YE23 reserves and resources had been reported previously. • The FY24 production guidance of 21.5-24.5 mbbl/d with US$205-235 mm opex and US$135-155 mm capex has been re-iterated. • Current production continues to be high, with average production for the first half of March of ~23,000 bbl/d, including ~7.9 mbbl/d for Jasmine, 7.2 mbbl/d for Nong Yao, 2.9 bbl/d for Manora and 4.9 mbbl/d for Wassana. Production at Wassana is particularly high. • Valeura will als
Companies: Valeura Energy Inc.
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Companies: FOG TND BVXP ACC HDD
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
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