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Companies: Synergia Energy Ltd (SYN:LON)Neoen SA (NEOEN:PAR)
SP Angel
Despite the lower wind conditions that affected all onshore operators, Neoen confirmed its FY23 EBITDA guidance and its 2025 trajectory, confident in its ability to deliver on new international projects and create value despite the headwinds facing the sector.
Companies: Neoen SA
AlphaValue
Neoen reported solid EBITDA growth of 44% to €252m (consensus BB €220m). The commissioning of the 460MW Western Downs solar farm and the 157MW Kaban wind farm, both in Australia, has put Neoen in a good position to confirm its outlook for 2023 with an EBITDA adj. target in the €460-490m range.
Neoen reported an encouraging start to the year, with good results in the Q1-2023, supported by a strong increase in electricity generation to almost 2 TWh y/o/y, thanks to all renewable commissioning assets in 2022 in both solar and wind. The group looks to be in a good position to confirm its outlook for 2023 with a strong dynamic in asset rotation. However, assets under construction and new installed capacity in 2023 should remain a strong point on which to focus.
Despite reporting record results for 2022 with revenues driven by new capacity installed in 2022 and 2021 against a backdrop of a high energy prices, Neoen’s share price fell significantly on the back of investor concern about an increased need for equity to the tune of €750m. With 6.6 GW of capacity currently in operation or under construction, the group recorded higher EBITDA margins in the wind and solar business units, offsetting a lower EBITDA margin in the storage segment. Further to these
Energy prices stable
Companies: NEOEN UKOG SDX ATOM
Another strong quarter for NEOEN which reported a higher-than-expected result and updated its EBITDA guidance for 2022 to €390-410m from €380-400m. The group recorded 46% growth in revenues for the 9M 2022 period across all business segments, including solar, wind, and storage. As other peers in the sector, the group benefited from soaring electricity prices but also confirmed its strategy of diversification in its assets expansion and notably in Argentina and Australia.
A solid set of results from Neoen, benefiting from the continuing asset expansion and higher power prices, in particular in Australia, to boost EBITDA by 39%. As a result and unsurprisingly, the group upgraded its full-year EBITDA guidance by more than 6%. Overall, positive signals are being sent to the market which has marked the shares up of late.
No obvious surprises from Neoen in its FY21 results; rather in line with last company update and revenue released on 15 February 2022. The main positive comes from the first dividend proposal, at €0.10 per share, while we expected €0.04. However, FY22 EBITDA guidance is weaker than expected. In our view, Neoen has the most promising exposure to post-war European packages towards the energy transition, especially regarding storage, triggering the mid-term outlook.
Neoen released 8% revenue growth for the 9M 21, to €242.7m. While it was still a sequential acceleration (+5% in H1), the performance is slightly below our expectations, especially on solar. This did not prevent the group from confirming its FY targets for both EBITDA and capacity, as well as its 2025 road map. On the other side, a slight delay is expected on solar asset commissioning in 2022 due to supply-chain issues. Negative view confirmed.
Disappointing first half of 2021 for Neoen which saw its EBITDA shrink by 15% despite higher revenues. As a result, the EBITDA guidance is narrowed to the low end of the previous range. On the positive side, the group continues expanding its asset base, and improved its liquidity position thanks to the €600m capital increase. Negative view confirmed.
Neoen released little information relative to its first quarter. Revenue was down by 16% yoy, even though electricity generation increased by 13%. Storage activity in Australia is to blame, hurt by the unfavourable high base of comparison. The group has also confirmed its FY21 guidance. Even if we target the top of the range, we confirm our cautious view on the stock.
Neoen released today globally poor figures that missed estimates, witnessing EBITDA at the bottom of guidance and an especially low adjusted net income. But the big news came from the Capital Markets Day and the targets by 2025. Aside from some promising figures, a structural change from debt to equity financing is emerging, as well as questions on the long-term sustainability of its develop-to-own strategy. Enough to reconsider the efficiency of Neoen’s operational strategy.
Neoen targets to more than double its capacity in operation by 2022, and this is all the more impressive considering its build-to-own strategy. However, this business model is highly demanding on capex (capex > EBITDA), leading to an out of bounds leverage (net debt/EBITDA of c.8x) permitted by state guarantees and low rates. The bulk of our valuation is thus based on long-term forecasts in the renewables market, a structural uncertainty that the market is unwilling to discount. We initiate cove
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Neoen SA. We currently have 37 research reports from 4 professional analysts.
Companies: FOG PHC FEN BBSN ELIX
Cavendish
Supreme’s FY24 trading update confirms a record performance in the 12 months to 31 March 2024. Organic revenue and profit growth across all four divisions has driven Group revenue +45% YOY to £225m, with FY24 adj. EBITDA almost doubling to ‘at least £38m’, driving record levels of cash generation. Supreme is actively exploring complementary M&A, supported by a debt free balance sheet. Trading on an undemanding FY25 PE of just 6.7x, with a 3.4% yield, we believe downside risks are more than price
Companies: Supreme PLC
Zeus Capital
Shore Capital
In a Trading Update for the twelve months to 31 March 2024 Supreme expects to report revenue of c.£225m, and (adj.) EBITDA of at least £38.0m, in line with market expectations, which had been revised upwards during the course of the year and represents almost double the FY23 level. The Group closed the year debt free. Our outlook highlights the extent to which Supreme has expanded, through both acquisition and organic growth during the period. From 2020 to 2024E the Group will have grown sales
Equity Development
Headlam Group has laid out an ambitious long-term revenue target of between £900m and £1bn, as it seeks to grow its share of the UK floor coverings distributor market. Despite a challenging backdrop due to the low level of residential housing transactions, management is seeking to expand each of its sales channels: Trade Counters, Larger Customers, Regional Distribution and Europe & Other. The FY23 results reflected the more challenging environment and the group trades at a discount to its long-
Companies: Headlam Group plc
Edison
Companies: James Latham Plc
The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no
Companies: AEIT ROOF DGI9 INPP GSF SEIT USFP HICL ORIT BSIF TRIG NESF SEQI HEIT GRP GCP FSFL 3IN AERI PINT RNEW BBGI GSEO DORE TENT GRID CORD HGEN AEET
Hardman & Co
Companies: CLA STM GLN FXPO KAV GWMO CEY BHP THX EEE
Companies: Ilika plc
Liberum
Companies: Severfield Plc
Companies: Gattaca plc
22nd April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi
Companies: ARV CTL AFRN FEN HUW TENG BBSN EAAS VAL
Hybridan
Quadrise (QED LN) has provided an update on its Utah project with Valkor. Valkor’s partner (Heavy Sweet Oil LLC) has received funding and approval to commence drilling enabling production of 20-40bopd of heavy sweet oil providing QED with samples for production of test scale quantities of MSAR and bioMSAR; the company’s key fuel decarbonising emulsion fuel products. This should derisk the commercial scale ramp up. QED management has highlighted that Valkor has not yet raised the minimum of US$
Companies: Quadrise PLC
VSA Capital
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; target price of SEK100 per share: Increasing further the size of the prize/Considering Algeria – The South Lahan area on Block 58 is estimated to hold 55-523 mmbl prospective resources (P90-P10 case) with a mean case of 251.8 mmbbl prospective resources across six prospects in the Ara Carbonate. Combined with the previously disclosed prospective resources of the Fahd area in the north-eastern part of Block 58, Te
Companies: OKEA WDS GALP RHC RHC ENW EOG UJO TRIN I3E SCIR ZPHR SDX CRCL UOG TETY CEG IOX 0EVE CNE VAR TETY VLE GALP OKEA
Auctus Advisors
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